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S&P Analysis

“The sentiment in the market remains bullish, as stocks continue on a nice two-year rally from the March 2009 low. The trend of the NYSE new-high/new-low (NHNL) has been edging higher, with 180 of the last 190 sessions bullish as of April 11. In the technology area, 136 of the last 148 sessions have been bullish. Yet, both the NASDAQ and NYSE turned neutral on April 12.

I see some danger on the S&P 500 chart. The index recently failed to break higher at the previous high point of 1,344 and now it looks like, unless we see a quick upward move, the index could be heading lower towards a lower pivot point at 1,249, down five percent from the current level.

The S&P 500 chart shows a bearish double top, with the index precariously wavering around the key 50-day moving average (MA) at around 1,314. The moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) indicator, something that I like to look at, also appears set to flash a sell signal. Think about it this way: the previous time the MACD turned bearish, the index corrected from 1,344 to 1,249. So be very careful now and perhaps wait to buy on a possible correction.”

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