Joined Dec 1, 2015
135 Blog Posts

Brussels Attacked: Don’t Expect Market Panic

Stocks are little changed after another deadly attack in Europe. The strikes come days after the arrest of a key suspect in the shootings and suicide bombings that killed 130 people in Paris last November 13th.

You’re going to be hearing about these attacks all day. Travel stocks will be hit. Consumer discretionary stocks with little international exposure could get an incremental boost. The ugly, most basic possible level of debates will be had regarding international relations and domestic security. Drones vs Boots. Choose your policy.

All of this is lamentable, agonizing, really, but not a trade. The world is little worse today than yesterday. It’s always this bad.

The S&P500 is up 13.3% in a month and a half and slightly higher for the year, thanks to the Great Irish Recovery of last week.  The market doesn’t need a reason to go lower. It frankly sort of should go lower just to keep everyone from going all crazy.

I assume these attacks are connected to Paris. On that assumption, I retraced the market last November. Paris happened at the end of a terrible week for stocks. The following Monday, with investors “braced” for selling, the S&P rallied 1.5%. Because screw ISIS.

The close on Monday, November 16: 2053. The close yesterday: 2051.

So we beat on, boats against the current, borne ceaselessly into the past…



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  1. cwinsor

    “There are only the pursued, the pursuing, the busy and the tired.”

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  2. infinitezuul

    I think that if there is a reason to sell it is the following:

    What’s his name from the Paris attacks was captured yesterday. He was likely working on other attacks. It is possible that they are speeding up the implementation of those attacks so they do not get thwarted. And if that is the case it’s very possible that attacks like this one could happen again this week or next. Even with heightened security its not realistic to think that these sorts of things can be stopped once in motion.

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  3. the dude

    The sad truth is these terrorist attacks are almost universally a buying opportunity except for travel stocks. Added to my EEM this morning.

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