Avoid losers and the winners will take care of themselves.

The point of the Triple Crown of Crap Index was pick the 3 worst public companies I could think of and make them into an index. The defining trait of a game of skill is whether or not it can be lost on purpose. Twitter, GoPro and FitBit were specifically chosen for to lose.

They didn’t disappoint. TWTR, GPRO and FIT have lost an average of 40% since the start of the year. All three stocks have been mercilessly beaten almost without interruption, and for very good reasons.

Some companies just shouldn’t be public and these are three of them. GoPro has dropped $6.6b in market cap over the last 52-weeks. That’s enough to buy 150 of at the party yachts CEO Nick Woodman bought for himself last Christmas.

FitBit is staggering to the wire and looks set to “win” Q1 with a 55% decline. Twitter and GoPro are both down about 30% with only one full day of trading left in the quarter. Whichever stock finishes closest to flat will be replaced in the Index starting April 1st.

You may make your case for the new entrant in Q2’s Triple Crown of Crap Index in the comment section below.

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Every rally needs a “tell”. Apple and Disney are fine but if you want to check the Animal Spirits of the market look to the beaten down crap.

Here’s a chart of Twitter, FitBit, GoPro and Shake Shack over the last 5 days. Don’t enlarge it in front of the children unless you want them to have night terrors for 60 years.

 

 

4 stocks that lived and are now dying by hope. In a screaming, stupid, straight-up 10% face-ripping rally you’d want to own at least a few of these.

Here’s those same 4-stocks as of 8:14 hippie-time:

 

All way off where they opened. GoPro is a rat-infested pit of despair. You couldn’t sell enough GoPro to bid for the Silence of the Lambs house without dropping GoPro 10%. there is no demand.

That’s both rational and a warning sign for this bounce. Don’t be piggy.

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I don’t know why oil is down 6%.

I could make up lots of reasons. I’m a trained broadcast professional. I have an MBA from Stanford. I am practiced at the art of spouting best guesses with a confident, strong voice.

But those reasons don’t actually matter. Oil shouldn’t move 6% in one day. Oil isn’t Under Armour. It’s not FitBit. Crude should move in pennies. If oil is down 6% in one session it can only be because something in the marketplace is broken. Whatever it is if it can take oil down 6% it sure as hell can trash my shares of FaceBook.

Bear markets are hard. They take money from everyone. It’s too late to short and too early to buy. If you’re long a ton of broken GoPro et al and it’s keeping you up at night just sell it until you can relax. Otherwise, from where I’m sitting the best trade today is nothing.

 

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