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Tag Archives: DIS

Disney Hung-Up By Cord Cutters



Disney is praying for sweet release of death after hours

No one can say they’re surprised by ESPN (~50% of Disney’s profits) seeing slowing growth. In fact, every analyst on earth saw this coming. The only question was whether or not the miss was “in the stock”.

Apparently it was not. DIS is down 16% year-to-date.

This is why I sell stocks when they break up trends. Once upward momentum is gone in a stock chart all news tends to be seen as bad. Now I have a chance to add below $90, the flash low from last August. I probably won’t but it’s nice to have the option.

Here’s the Disney chart I posted January 4th. It was a happier, simpler time…




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Bat-Damned: A Portent of Doom Is Confirmed

Yesterday I said Amazon’s chart was forming a “Brooding Affleck Batman; the worst kind!“.

Because this is the Internet someone had to take this the wrong way and start whining. In this case that was awesome because what the person was upset about had nothing to do with Amazon or stocks at all. @Hero_Spin on Twitter was upset at me for besmirching the reputation of the upcoming Batman vs. Superman: Dawn of Justice movie.

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This gave me the rare opportunity to mix film and stocks while using my basso profondo “I’m Batman” hiss for the voice of my inner monologue. I was an accidental film studies and Psych dual major in college. I unwittingly took all the required electives required for a degree, just because I love movies.

I also happen to already have a theory about the length of Batman’s ears and the economy.

@Hero_Spin tugged on the wrong guy’s cape, is what I’m saying.

First I’ll pre-review the film then I”ll share single most important scientific discovery since Calculus: the Batman Ear Indicator.

The Movie

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Screw Superman. Just as a blanket statement. No one likes him. And enough with the Nazi Propaganda visuals. This is a comic book movie. It shouldn’t have the same score as Schindler’s List. Based on the trailers, DC’s twist on the Avengers was to take out the jokes but keep the training staff and pharmacists.


No judgements. He looks great. Affleck’s real Batman body looks like the suit they made George Clooney wear. Ben looks like a professional wrestler delivering a promo in the cuts of him as Bruce Wayne. I’m good with that but let us be clear:  The only way a guy in his 40s can replace 30lbs of dad body with muscle is through both insanely hard work and a wife suffering from human growth hormone deficiency. Finding a Low-T friendly doctor would help as well.

I love Affleck’s movies, for the most part. He’s somehow underrated despite a monster career. But this isn’t his movie. He shares it with Superman and Wonder Woman and the guy who played Zuckerberg and who knows what else. This thing has train-wreck written all over it.

Oh, I’ll go see Ben Affleck as Batman in this ponderous, overwrought piece of garbage, @Hero_Spin. I’ll probably even enjoy it. But don’t tell me it’s good.

Which brings me to the theory:

The Length of Batman’s Ears is Correlated to Future Stock Market Returns

Art reflects the values of the generation that produces it. Just as we build the most garish buildings during times of peak mania, the super heroes which resonate with an era express the values and desires of their day. Batman’s ears are the mercury in phallic thermometers measuring the heat of our national ambition. They are economic indicators.

Which broadly fits if you work backwards from the 1960’s being the nadir of recent existence for both America and Batman. Vietnam. Race riots. Assassinations. And, starting in 1966 just in time for a bear market, the world was introduced to this:

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Stocks fell 22% over 8 wrenching months.

This morning my son and I watched Keaton Batman while I calculated the length of every major television and cinematic Batman’s ears, relative to his skull. I then ran stock market returns during each of the 5-distinct Batman reigns.

As it turns out, the Batman Ear Length Indicator is a balls-on stock market tell for 80 years. The longer Batman’s ears are the better the stock market during the period. Note I’m not talking art. Just size. The most bullish Batman was Joel Schumacher’s nipped Clooney / Kilmer outfits, with their ears like stout Viking horns. Perfect for a run of 30% CAGR in Bill Clinton’s America.

That’s not a trading call. Trading based on Batman’s ears would be insane. Yet it is fact. It’s also fact that Batman vs. Superman hits theaters March 25th. Do with that information what you will.

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Waiting Out The Disaster

I don’t know why oil is down 6%.

I could make up lots of reasons. I’m a trained broadcast professional. I have an MBA from Stanford. I am practiced at the art of spouting best guesses with a confident, strong voice.

But those reasons don’t actually matter. Oil shouldn’t move 6% in one day. Oil isn’t Under Armour. It’s not FitBit. Crude should move in pennies. If oil is down 6% in one session it can only be because something in the marketplace is broken. Whatever it is if it can take oil down 6% it sure as hell can trash my shares of FaceBook.

Bear markets are hard. They take money from everyone. It’s too late to short and too early to buy. If you’re long a ton of broken GoPro et al and it’s keeping you up at night just sell it until you can relax. Otherwise, from where I’m sitting the best trade today is nothing.


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Stocks on pace to fall 97% in 2016

Welcome to the Month of Macke on iBankCoin!

We’ve got all kinds of exciting things planned but at the moment we have more pressing matters.

The S&P500 is down about 1.5% after everything that could go wrong did over the weekend. In the unlikely event the pace of this sell-off continues throughout the year the S&P will finish 2016 down more than 97% at around 50.  For the record, I am a buyer in size anywhere under 100.

If your 2016 investing plan hinged on Peace in the Middle East and unfettered Chinese capitalism you should probably sell. For every hour the Chinese have spent as capitalists they’ve got 100 days of experience being tyrants. Experience matters because it informs decision making under stress. When the Shanghai Comp fell 7% overnight the Chinese had a choice. They could let the free hand of capitalism find a price level for the $SSEC or go with their gut slam the market shut and execute some bears in public.

Obviously the Chinese went with the latter. It won’t work because government manipulation never works. (Longer form musings on the topic here: Brief History of Manipulation)

For now just know the Shanghai Comp is a disaster but still slightly better than where it was last summer:


Trimming the Tree: Shanghai's Christmas Tree of Death
Trimming the Tree: Shanghai’s Christmas Tree of Death

Sell-Off 101:


As I said, we’ll get to more formal introductions over the next few weeks. Right now we have opportunity in front of us but only if you have a plan better than “Pretend I’m a long-term investor then puke up all my stocks at noon”.

The chances are very low you’re an expect on both China and the Middle East. Don’t trade off what you don’t know. Stick to your stocks. Go through your book. Look at levels.

Here’s a non-comprehensive list of stocks I’m watching into the new year. It’s a shopping list with the prices I’m willing to start putting money to work.

I don’t give advice. I tell you in real time what I’m doing with my real money. In 20 years I’ve never made money selling an open this ugly. I’m looking to buy where noted below. More later…



Apple and Disney: Double Dow Hammer
Apple and Disney: Double Dow Hammer

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