It’s Really Over This Time

School is back in session and everyone is depressed. The mood is glum and the prospects are blacker than ever. The idea of a vaccine is reprehensible to half the population who more or less view COVID-19 as a robust flu. I’ve never seen such hysteria over an ailment in my life. Then again, I wasn’t born into any notable pandemics.

The time for 100% intra-day returns is now over. We’ve parsed thru the narratives, woven thru all of the inequities, and have concluded nothing is really that special. Importance in all things but sanity has concluded and I’d bet you’ll begin to see a reversion back to the mean, in this regard.

I have liquidated numerous stocks in my trading account for getting stale. I intend to sell some more, back on the road to normalcy. By normal, I mean not buying stocks that I hate just for a quick buck. The pennies have crested and it’s time to start preparing for the fall months, when the leaves will turn and the ambrosia of the market curdles.

I have traded poorly the past two weeks — because markets shifted. The overnighters are practically non-existent and the intra-day rippers are becoming harder and harder to trade. I’ve made close to 300% this year trading, so I am doing what any rational, intelligent person would do, given the circumstances.

Declaring that it is over and my personal experience is global, a macro sense that cannot be disputed because my feeeeeeelings might get hurt. If you leave a comment below contrary to what I believe in, I will hit you in the face.

I see a lot of hatred out there for 3 specific stocks, one primarily because Pizzagaters suspect some form of human trafficking is taking place there, via over priced items on their site. But we will not delve into that now.

What’s important to note is the behavioral shift in consumers, a seemingly CASH LESS society. It has gotten so bad, Sec. Mnuchin is asking Americans to hand in their coins in exchange for bills. We have a coin shortage.

If you have extra coins at home, please use them to make purchases— or deposit them at the bank or exchange them for cash. Help get coins moving! ??

— Steven Mnuchin (@stevenmnuchin1) August 11, 2020

Shares of OSTK are +1,563% YTD
W +243%
ETSY +196%
and SQ +143%

Before you throw your hotdog at the screen, take a look at their revenue spikes.

Cash flow rich.

Former CEO of OSTK sold last year — fucked.

He cleared $100m last year. Had he held, it’d be worth ~$681m

I’m still recovering from last night’s CHAMPIONSHIP TENNIS MATCH against my wife and kids. I feel like someone stuffed me into a burlap bag and then proceeded to hit me with copper pipes. Clearly I have some work to do in the field of championship tennis and I must condition myself to be able to defeat the family without any repercussions.

Markets are higher and gold is leading the way, mainly because Buffett stepped in to buy GOLD. Gold is higher by more than 2%, silver 5% — and yet the 10yr is down 3bps to 0.67%. Pay attention very closely. ETH and BTC are jumping too. The “fuck the dollar” trade has commenced and if you glances at Seattle and Portland — you’d wonder why the dollar has any value at all.

There is no better long term conviction trade for me than ETH.

At the same time, the rally has narrowed, considerably. Sure, small caps have led the way the past 3-4 months — but looking at the 50% breadth now — it is clear to be some people are getting kicked into sewers.

I had to book three losses today and still have several more on the block.

(BIGC -5.1%)
(SPCE -6%)
(BLNK -7%)

It has not been an accommodative tape. Let’s be clear. The tape has become much more difficult to trade and the momentum isn’t spilling over to then next session, which makes intra-day trading way more attractive.

I opened up three new position, all running hot intra-day, 1 crypto related. Look at OSTK. Can you believe it?

On we go.

As you grow fat and old, shriveling away in the dust, Le Fly is virile — playing tennis each and every day. I’ve become agile again — a true athlete amongst athletes.

This evening I took my entire family to the local court. Unfortunately, I have not chosen a country club to join yet, so I am relegated to the plebeian courts for now. At any rate, we played doubles and my team won every game. Then we played singles, and I won every game.

A MASTER AMONGST RANK AMATEURS, but master nonetheless.

On Tuesday I resume my private tutoring sessions, as I attempt to apply my natural born athletic talents to this new sport. By my accounting, with some hard work and effort, I will be 3.0 NTRP inside 3 months.

As for stocks, going higher — what else is new? Do we even need to discuss?

I had a mixed past two weeks, but this is normal for me. Very soon I will ignite again, halt and catch fire, and break necks all the way to the finish line.

Thirty million Americans are on the dole, yet stocks are near record highs.

“To get the employment-to-population ratio back to where it was at its peak in 2000 we need to create 30 million jobs,” said Torsten Slok, Deutsche Bank’s chief economist.

In recent weeks I’ve read all sorts of nonsense about NYC being done and how the country can never bounce back. While I’d love nothing more to agree, you are I both know the closure of EATERIES is nothing, literally nothing. I can go out there tonight with the materials I have and start an EATERY.

Can you?

Can you?

The fact of the matter is, and listen to me very closely, nothing ends until dollar supremacy ends. That can only happen via ARMED CONFLICT. Maybe at some point an allied force will assemble to topple our malevolent regime. But until that day occurs and all of America’s rivers are colored with blood, NASDAQS should always be purchased and as much as we HATE cities — people will always gravitate towards them because of culture, and experience, and camaraderie .

We’re all going a little crazy these days, some more crazier than others.

OFF TO BAKE IN THE SOUTHERN SUN WHILST ATTEMPTING TO HIT TENNIS BALLS.

You can clearly see what he’s thinking here. Ponder these two moves.

Liquidated positions:

Berkshire closed the following positions: $DAL (from ~71.89 mln shares), $LUV (from ~53.64 mln), $AAL (from ~41.91 mln), $UAL (from ~22.16 mln), $OXY (from ~18.93 mln), $QSR (from ~8.44 mln), $GS (from ~1.92 mln)

New positions:

GOLD (~20.92 mln shares)

He also reduced positions in the following:

WFC (to ~237.58 mln shares from ~323.21 mln shares), SIRI (to ~50 mln from ~132.42 mln), JPM (to ~22.21 mln from ~57.71 mln), BK (to ~72.36 mln from ~79.77 mln), PNC (to ~5.35 mln from ~9.2 mln), MTB (to ~4.54 mln from ~5.38 mln), V (to ~9.99 mln from ~10.56 mln), MA (to ~4.56 mln from ~4.93 mln), CHTR (to ~5.21 mln from ~5.43 mln)

Interestingly, Bill Ackman added to QSR and dumped his stake in BRK.

Very slow, molasses, sort of day. The big story is Ethereum. It broke loose past $400 and now nothing can stop it. With ETH now above $440, it is clear to me we’ll see higher prices in the immediate term. Longer term, once the dollar is in shambles and your country club burned to the ground, you’ll thank me for ETH.

I booked the following trades — had a rather moribund day.

INO +7.5%
APT +3%
(PDD -5.5%)
MESO +7%

I am in the process of selecting a country club for my tennis needs and the choices are proving more difficult than I thought. I only care about the tennis program. But then again, what about the people? The place looks nice — but what sort of fucking animals go there?

Choices.

Have a good weekend and start blaming yourself for your problems and not someone else.

Happiness.

The memes make themselves.

Ok, so what's this all about. Background art suspect pic.twitter.com/jXn6TOxdTN

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) August 14, 2020

NASDAQ is off 50 and the US just took over 4 Iranian oil ships en route to Venezuela. Fuck yeah — America baby. Take your oil elsewhere. The western continent is full.

Aside from being sad the market is off by 50 NASDAQs, I blew a trade in BLNK this morning — mainly because I am slothful and disgraceful. I had stood up later than usual last night and missed the opportunity to sell premarket, whilst it was SHARPLY higher. I cannot stress this enough, so listen to me very quietly.

If you’re working from home, like most of us are now, maintain a healthy enough schedule to ensure you’ll be awake by a minimum of 8:30am. If you’re waking up after the market opens, you’re already a dinosaur and the day has been ruined. If you sleep thru a trade, like I did today, you will feel rotten to your core, and deservedly so.

So far I booked two profits, upping cash to 35%, eagerly awaiting for an upside reversal.

INO +7.5%
APT +3%

Smooth day at the old trading turret. I had to step out early in order to interview a country club I was thinking about joining. I did not like it, so I am on to the next one.

Mid-day, I made a series of trades, mostly profitable. The end of day fade affected me, but not severely.

TIGR +7.4%
CHWY +4.1%
CRWD +2.2%
SDGR +4.7%

I am of course still looking for upside — but I have DIALED back the degeneracy in favor of some real stocks. I sense there is a rotation underway and it doesn’t bode well for Robinhood assholes.

I think it’s important, for the sake of posterity, to document this shit when it happens. If you recall or not, Credit Suisse once FUCKED holders of XIV in a most heinous fashion. They had plans to delist and cancel DGAZ, their retarded natural gas ETN, but then morons got a hold of it and RAN IT UP TO $25,000!

So Credit Suisse halted it and will zero it the fuck out now. Any questions?

Its market cap is $4.5b with assets just about $40m. The price of $15,000 is a tad above its NAV of $124.

In a world of Robinhood traders gone mad, one should expect this sort of stuff on a regular basis — until the decks are cleared and their heads mounted on pikes.