Has Retail and Commercial Re Changed Forever?

As I work thru my trading slump, I have been thinking about the longer term future of retail and commercial RE, both significant parts of the US economy. Because Americans are malleable and adapt well to change, we have see a remarkable shift in consumer and workplace behavior due to COVID-19.

Companies have learned they can maintain productivity whilst ceding office space to the Vacancy Gods and increase profits. Amidst the retailers benefitting from this shift, AMZN, W, OSTK, ETSY — FCF has surged. Companies like WSM with significant mall square footage just reported good numbers and said online sales now make up 75% of their revenues. What we are seeing here is significant. Companies were forced to produce online and have done so with great results.

How could retail REITs survive? What sort of environment are we heading into for commercial RE, when companies can perform just as well remotely?

The grim scenario creates a barbell trade for online operators vs physical and then extends into banks who have exposure to CMBS. There is massive potential downside to CMBS — only held up now because of the Fed.

Eventually, the vacancies will mean something and those fucking bonds will have to be properly marked to market. Until then, up we go because the clown show continues.

If you haven’t been concentrated in tera cap growth stocks the past week, you made no money. If you made money, you had some good picks and fortune. I find myself, inexorably, chasing the dragon — late and often wrong. The losses are 10% off the highs, which feels worse than it really is and that’s because I am accustomed to winning more often than not.

The danger of a losing streak is taking it personal. It’s easy to at some point draw a line in the sand and refuse to accept reality, no longer adhere to stop losses, and start absorbing heavy losses.

For now, I remain obstinately bullish, 100% invested.

Small caps are lower by 0.8%. Breadth is an appalling 40%. Yet, the NASDAQ is +170. How is that? I will tell you how. The fucking weighted index is being fucked by a few tera caps. HOWEVER, it is indicative of where value is found today.

Understand something. The economy isn’t diverse. The winners have already been chosen. The rest of us are merely trying to grab some crumbs as they fall off the table. Small businesses have been absolutely poleaxed, so it makes sense when you see small caps down and the biggest of the biggest companies roaring higher.

CRM is +27%
NFLX +9% (I sold yesterday)
ADBE +8%
SHOP +6%

I can go on.

What is working now will continue to work, indefinitely. The economy has never been more bifurcated, so fall in line or get rolled over.

Another grande day for the indices — but SHITTY day for me. It’s a slow and steady bleed for the past week or two — 10% or so OFF the +300% highs. It’s ok and expected, but frustrating.

I am using entirely new methods now — but that’s not the reason. Breadth has been weak — today just 50%. The odds of making money in that sort of breadth is NARROW. It is a stock picker market and I am not picking them well.

Today’s closed trades.

ONE -7%
YY +7.4%
WKHS +4.1%
SPAQ +4.5%
NFLX – wash
AAL +6.1%

It looks good, cosmetically, but I am fully invested and on a hamster wheel to nowhere. I will be the first to talk extreme shit when I am hot. When cold, I will tell you that I suck. I do this because I am an extremely honest person, perfect morals, and aim to demonstrate that I too am fallible. Watch me as I proceed thru the mud and the toil towards elysium.

Without the pangs of misery, the ambrosia of the stock Gods aren’t all that meaningful after all.

As you read this, CRYPTO dorks are getting BTFO in merciless selling. ETH is down to $375, BTC to $11,300 in a seemingly end to the recent rally. That goes without saying, frankly. I never bought ETH with the thought of capital appreciation. I bought it as a hedge against the very worst case scenario — dollar collapse.

It’s a low probability play and I hope it doesn’t happen, otherwise 95% of my net worth will vanish into plumes of smoke. ETH or BTC are merely insurance policies for me and I allocate about 2% of my monthly income into it — like paying a bill.

This summer I’ve spent a lot of my time documenting wanton criminality. Perhaps next summer I will get the opportune to summer somewhere without bedlam and chaos. Last night in Kenosha, Madison and Milwaukee, citizens destroyed their cities. Since the onset of the riots and subsequent protests, we’ve seen harsh divisions in opinion, between supporting the institutions of the country and also getting rid of them altogether — mostly race based initiatives.

Whether you fall on one side or another is mostly irrelevant to me. I choose to not participate and function in read mode only. However, all of this is occurring during the worst pandemic since the Spanish Flu. Providing you believe this is important, I would imagine you also think that millions of people congregating in tightly packed spaces is also a bad idea.

COVID-19 numbers were just dropping and now there are renewed acts of violence brought to you in mob format. Such a formula for disaster can only be by design, as its stupidity can only be explained by sheer evil. Hopefully this all dies down and we can get back to normal again, especially when BILL GATES’ wonderful COVID-19 VAX is released and injected in all living persons, even babies. Until that happens, and until the numbers die down, we’re in a race against the clock — because if this shit is still around when the flu season hits again this winter — we’re entirely fucked.

Markets are enjoying a minor bump. I sold AAL for +6.1% overnight.

The Trump admin announced today the immediate release of a SUPER DISINFECTANT that can kill COVID-19 for 7 motherfucking days. On this news, I got in fully into airlines, cruises ships, and anything else I could get my greedy hands on. As I outlined earlier, I had been incorrectly positioned for a continuance of the pandemic, when in fact it is over.

More than 50% of US states have seen a REDUCTION in COVID related deaths. The only thing that could possibly set us back now is a cop killing of an unarmed black man that might cause millions to protest and riot throughout the country. Thanks to heavens, we live in a civil society.

I am fully invested again, aboding throughout the fucking house now. I don’t even think that’s a word and I really don’t give a shit. I make up my own words, fortunes, Stocklabs release date time table. In a clown world, anything goes. Check me out now, as I head into the southern steam to play some tennis, dominate my wife and leave her nothing but love.

I love my dogs — but I also hate their fucking guts. I understand their nature is to be angry and violent, not so much different from Americans. I love America — but I also hate it. Same shit. Since I moved to NC I have been working out of the parlour, the front room that has all of my shit in it — books, Chesterfield couch, ornate furniture, sound system etc. However, given the layout of this fucking house, which is temporary, I have been besieged by my FUCKING DOGS with 10 barks per minute.

So I decided to seize upon the downstairs area, not so much a basement as it is a lower level, and establish a new work area.

In this whacky COVID-19 world, moving downstairs into the dungeons to escape your angry dogs makes sense. I bought a bunch of new shit to accommodate my arrival, such as works of art, new desktop, extra monitor, new desk, sound system, extravagant rugs to accompany my steps as I sashay throughout the area. All of this was necessary because investing in oneself is paramount towards wanton consumerism and waste, the sort of frivolities that built America into the annoying bitch it is today.

The Dow is higher by almost 300 on news that pretty much every pharmaceutical east and west of Russia has a cure for COVID-19. It appears, after all, it was a SHIT VIRUS and that my uncle who died from it was indeed a criss actor pawning for Soros. I am sure he is enjoying some whiskey in some Irish city right now.

News is everywhere and the market likes it. The fucking vaccine, which will be COMPULSORY, is being developed and we’ll have enough of that shit by October. Just think about it, the entire world will soon enjoy the benefits of WESTERN MEDICINE.

On this news, normalization stocks are gapping higher: airlines, travel plays, and fucking cruise ships — cesspool plays THRU the roof. On the downside is anything that worked in a social distancing/COVID-19 world. Throw away those masks and put on a clown nose. We’re going the fuck higher.

Unfort, I got caught on my fucking clown tricycle this morning and was tipped over by this wonderful news. I had to sell both GNMK and CODX for 9.5% losses. I took some LMND profits at 2.9% and removed TLT for a 1.5% gain — because there isn’t a need for defensive measure now — not ever.

With some of the proceeds, I put some money to work in a pre-COVID-19 world mentality and hope to report back to you soon with amazing results. Super awesome.

Trump says he’s going to inject you with COVID plasma, a therapeutic cure for the pandemic. Also, he’s going to FAST TRACK the vaccine process for which you will wait in line like a small school boy to get your injection. The COVID-19 make-shift vaccination will be COMPULSORY. Failure to adhere to governmental edict will lead to the suspension of your drivers license, passport, and travel restrictions. You will not be permitted to work, school, or visit eateries.

The quickly made, Bill Gates sponsored, fuck your fucking face off vaccine will be MANDATORY for all citizens. The idea of not wanting to inject yourself with a LIVE VIRUS is plainly barbaric and without reason.

Did you, as a baby, deny yourselves the chicken pox vaccine? Are you against the polio vaccine?

The time has come to inject yourselves with a super fucking flu vaccine. A small percentage of you WILL DIE. There is no way getting around soft targets getting hit in a war. But it’s for the overall good of society that some of you reading might not survive to enjoy the success of the COVID-19 vaccine.

Nasdaq futs are +50. More of the same. Rinse, repeat, and fuck off.