The Rotation Has Been and Will Be Fast Underway

Gone are the days when you could pick letters out of a scrabble box and make money.

$RTX comes out of the scrabble bag. Smush letters and buy it. Give it a try Ron, you might not bankrupt your clients. #DDTG pic.twitter.com/semLRi6yBF

— Dave Portnoy (@stoolpresidente) June 19, 2020

I can’t believe this happened.

Markets have been valuing FNGU stocks like a motherfucker. Bear witness to that 3x FANG ETF now trading at $180. ‘Tis the life of a market operator — trying to find the next Apple when the current Apple is the next Apple. Let that sink in.

The past two weeks and really for a month there has been vacillation amongst the sectors, winners and losers. Not everything is shooting higher in a convoy, as evidenced by the monthly returns below.

How do we manage from here? Stop picking stocks out of the scrabble box and start doing research again. I think we have enough clarity to realize who is going to make it and who isn’t by now. Revenues were down in the magnitude of 22% last quarter and things might spike a little now. The level of revenue output today, even with all of the new issues, matches 2012. In other words, there is a massive bleed and the #1 question that has yet to be answered is: when will things, if ever, get back to normal? And will the vaccine to come be compulsory?

The type of fuckery taking place today will not occur once Apple splits its shares. The weighted index fiasco will soon end. On a day with market breadth 65% NEGATIVE, the Dow showed a gain of 190, because Apple edged towards $500. Similarly, NVDA, a $500 stock, ripped higher. As a matter of fact, many of the HIGH PRICED Nasdaq tera caps ripped.

TSLA +2.5%
BABA +3%

Etc.

If you lost money today and wondered to yourself “what the fuck did I do wrong?” the answer is nothing. Small caps were lower by more than 1.5%, as Robinhood traders get BTFO by deep pocketed hedge fund managers who have had enough of the shit stocks galavanting higher.

I took the day to oversea yet another repair on my car, book a few trades (SMAR +6%,API +4%) and position myself for what I think will be greatness next week. The rotation is 100% in effect, so be careful about overstaying your welcome in those low brow piece of shit runners.

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Dow is +70, Nasdaq +50, but everything is down. How is that so? Because the indices are flawed, over-weighted by a few stocks. Let me show you what the market is really doing today — via my Stocklabs custom indices.

Pennies -1.1%
Small Cap -0.6%
Mega Caps -0.2%
Tera Caps -0.1%

I am down, as it happens, 0.4% now, which only extends my recent squall that I most heinously find myself in. I no longer possess the gumption to day trade. My swing trades have been stifled. What’s next — lower stock prices?

Imagine being short from March? You saw the world shutting down and businesses shut down and made the assumption it would lead to lower prices. Now look at you — broke and destitute, in the streets like a bum.

RULE #1 thru 1 million:

Your opinions or ideas only work if other people buy into them. If your ideas aren’t yielding positive results, adapt or get eliminated.

Investing, at times, can be very easy or very hard. Your mood, financial situation, education level, all affect what type of investor you’ll become. Even the best traders have bad days, weeks, even months. Expect it to happen. But the cardinal rule is more than anything else: “live to fight another day.”

Nothing wrong with making a tactical retreat, so if you’re out there clinging to that last put, that last short position — hoping that you too could be like the cross eyed fucked face in The Big Short — understand that fairy tales only happen in movies and you’re more likely to trade to zero than become the next Gordon Gecko.

I’ve shifted away from the pennies and back to real companies because I’m a real guy with real feelings. I don’t like getting hurt and those FUCKING PENNIES were driving me nuts. So instead of pussying out and removing myself from the market, I merely idled myself in a series of good companies who obey the market and correlate well to the effervescent springs.

The Nasdaq is +105 and nothing seems possible to stop us. We all want to see the market CRASH, for different reasons. But nothing and I mean nothing is able to stop it. It is the most curious thing ever.

Today we’re looking at software. Are you interested in SAAS or not? Because if you’re not, I am liable to head down over there and punch your jaw loose for you. SAAS is where it’s at pal. Take a look at HUBS lately? Yes, some people might point to me and say “THAT’S THE GUY WHO TOLD ME TO BUY HUBS AT $50.” That would be true. It was me. I was extolling the virtues of SAAS back in 2014, when I got fucking STEAMROLLED in the apocalypse horsemen shit trade, of whatever the fuck it was called. The point is, I am usually right about longer term trends.

The trend I see continuing now is COVID-19. It’s the forever virus, or until Joe Biden gets elected. Then it’ll go away. Either way, prepare for more of the same. OSTK to $1,000. The pedos at W to 1 million.

I keep on the lookout for COLLAPSE at all times. You know it will eventually happen, all things considered. But you just don’t know exactly when and it hasn’t been very fun to short into a market lifted by Fed crack.

I am 100% done with the intra-day trading, until the next spike comes and draws me back in. I spent the balance of my morning at the car shop, getting my fucking windshield replaced. But because I have a smart glass attached to the fucking car, it needs some programming and will take hours and hours to complete.

My “Sick Dave” trade, SHORT PENN, isn’t working out now. Perhaps he’s recovering and now sustaining on apples anymore? I need an update on his health and current temperature.

The NASDAQ is +57 and I am actively seeking out companies whose fundamentals have improved during this time period. I believe we are in a PERMANENT state of fuckery, so any company thriving now will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

As for the bond market, I am long TLT — because nothing is back to normal and it’s only a matter of time when people RUN for the exits. The panic will be forecasted in the bond market, thru lower yields. At the very latest, I think we collapse by mid September.

Bleak times for momentum traders. I’ve become shell shocked to the point of refusing trades for fear of loss and tragedy. You might believe me to be melodramatic, but I feel like I’m at siege with forces attempting to cut my dick off.

Early this morning I had a 15% gain in FEDU and then bore witness to it going black. Last week the same thing happened with BLNK. Intraday, I had an 8% gain in MNKD, closed down.

These are dark and trying times for yours truly. It feels like the Obama days of 2016, when everyone was glum and depressed, wanting to kill themselves by way of the rope.

My last 10 trades.

(KNDI-1.7%)
CCO – WASH
RIOT WASH
UPWK +1.1%
ZSAN +1.1%
SPAQ +2.5%
WATT +7.7%
SPT +2.3%
GLUU +1.3%
ONE +7%

I cannot recall the last 100% winner and that makes my eyes water. While markets are near the highs, breadth has been dreadful.

I offer you no words of encouragement or anything to assuage the pain you’re feeling, financially speaking. Things are bad and getting worse, and they’re gonna stay that way for the balance of your lives.

Once upon a time in these hallowed halls, men of industry bet against Apple when Steve Jobs appeared gaunt. It was incredulously dubbed “the sick Steve trade”. It was a different era, a place and time when profiting off the impending doom of another person was not only acceptable, but preferable. Going down memory lane for a brief moment, in between sterilizing my groceries, I saw this video and thought to myself “SHORT PENN.”

LOOK WHO GOT COVID-19
pic.twitter.com/v40D8aPfuj

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) August 19, 2020

I will not couch this trade with “I am one of Dave’s biggest fans.” That would be a pussy route. I will also not say “boy do I hope Dave dies now so I can make some money.” But what I will say is, Portnoy is everything to PENN — a stock up too much too fast and deserves to come in a little. With Dave on the DL, I like my chances to punch PENN right in the face and knock it out.

During this wacky COVID-19 world, only a few stocks have truly thrived, fundamentally. We have all of the social distancing plays taking off like TDOC, ROKU, NFLX, DOCU. But then there are others, less known by the public, crushing on fundies — such as SE, OSTK, W, ETSY, EXPI, APPS, ZNGA and several others. I sense the social distancing phase is being normalized. Hence, being smart and searching out these companies who are enjoying solid QOQ and YOY rev growth and FCF will position you for greatness, should this trend continue.

Donald Trump might soon have a career as a stock operator, working for perhaps Muddy Waters after his Presidency. He issues a SHORT ALERT on his Twitter account today, by way of telling his 85m followers to NOT buy Goodyear Tires.

And this is why.

GOODYEAR TIRE ACCEPTABLE AND UNACCEPTABLE POLITICAL ATTIRE @goodyear pic.twitter.com/cpnJOtuF7a

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) August 19, 2020

We’ve effectively demonized one another to the point where we want them dead, by way of starvation. This malevolence only gets worse from here.

Don’t buy GOODYEAR TIRES – They announced a BAN ON MAGA HATS. Get better tires for far less! (This is what the Radical Left Democrats do. Two can play the same game, and we have to start playing it now!).

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 19, 2020

My best advice to you, the unwashed pleb, is to understand very seriously that you do not have power, never possessed it, and will never get it. Live your lives without being so god damned opinionated, in spite of how hard that is — believe me. Find peace in knowing that you drank the best Champagne and lived an honorable life, unlike the people who deal in politics all day long.

GT is down 2% on this news.

If you suffered depression before COVID-19 hit, this shit must be the death knell for people on the cusp. Is there an end in sight? I’m not taking that fucking vaccine — cheaply and wholly made by whores. While medicine is something I appreciate and honor, I am not necessarily keen on fucked vaccines that are never tested against placeboes and/or possess MASSIVE quantities of mercury.

The POST OFFICE GENERAL is on the fucking move — removing your mailbox and telling you to fuck off. When I got to NC, I was somewhat shocked that there weren’t any mailboxes at all, as opposed to up north where mailboxes line almost every single block. Perhaps we don’t need to mail anything, especially votes? I am ok with voting in person. What I am not ok with is voting at all. Voting is for 100% losers, people with nothing better to do on a Tuesday night. I will have you know, Le Fly is a man of industry and toil. I work 23 hrs per day and sleep just an hour. I don’t care who is President, as long as I could trade stocks without fees.

Should Kamala Harris become President after Biden dies on the first day in, I am pretty sure she’ll do as she’s told. If she gets out of line, like Trump, they’ll impeach her and make her life miserable — maybe go after her family with threats of violence and wanton discriminatory acts of depravity.

People who do not trade stocks should not get to vote anyhow. What right do you have to tell me what should happen in this country, just because you live in it? You do not own anything, and offer a NEGATIVE balance on the nation’s balance sheet. It is a mistake to permit ordinary folks the vote.

Moving on, I tried to escape the penny stock gambling gambit, but got ensnared in a couple more. I am 35% cash and I turned over a lot of positions today — because shit aint working. This tape is up, but the breadth is weak and the momentum is lacking.

My trades for today.

(MARA -14.1%),
(KC -6.5%)
(OPK -3.8%)
(APRN -3.1%)
(KNDI-1.7%)
CCO – WASH
RIOT WASH
UPWK +1.1%
ZSAN +1.1%
SPAQ +2.5%
WATT +7.7%
SPT +2.3%
GLUU +1.3%