Bet Against the Deal Firms

Citi is slashing it IB division. It’s only a matter of time that we see deal firms start falling by the wayside.

I know a lot of people at small-mid-sized boutique shops, who were making buckets of coin over the last 5 years. Now, they’re looking for work.

Consider the anatomy of recent deals: all foreign. Over the last two years, the IB’s were out of the cartons of retarded Asian companies, who don’t know how to properly deal with minor inconveniences, such as accounting standards, i.e. [[XFML]].

In my opinion, [[LAZ]], [[COWN]], [[TWPG]], [[JEF]], [[PJC]], [[OPY]], [[EVR]], [[GHL]] and [[PLCC]] are long term sells.

The bigger firms, like [[MS]], [[MER]] and [[JPM]] will be adversely affected too. But, the small fuckers can get annihilated.

What is Wall Street going to cook up in late 2008-early 2009? I’m sure every single Chinese company, that employs more than 5 people, has been milked by them, already. Maybe, they might exploit Brazil a little more or some ag related crap. But, as a whole, the ipo pipeline is as dry as a slug in a salt mine.

By the way, CNBC needs to cancel ‘Fast Money’ or just get a new cast of talking heads to espouse opinions. I miss that Strazini guy, and of course Eric ‘The Oil Barrel’ Bolling. I’m sure that fucker made like 10 trillion dollars, on his oil barrels, over the past year.

Seriously, except for an occasional Macke verbal gem, those fucktards are completely inept investors. About a month ago, Guy Adami was suggesting the banks would be ‘writing up’ their worthless assets and exclaimed: ‘Meredith Whitney might upgrade the banks,’ since the worst credit crisis known to mankind had ended and shit, in just under a quick 3 months.

Asshat.

Updated Asshat: Does anyone still take this guy serious?

Some might consider this to be ridiculously blasphemous, rightly so. However, I consider it quite Godly.

Apparently, Dougie Kass aka ‘Mr. Big Bank Believer’ is making the rounds across the internets, leaving egregious comments— in order to defend his erroneous decision to get long bank stocks—prior to their recent “homo-hammering.”

Full article here.

1. Doug Kass Says:
   June 15th, 2008 at 6:09 pm 1. I dont cheerlead – I analyze. My analysis is sometimes right and sometimes wrong- unlike your convicted “no chance” that XLF can rally.
   2. I have been short financials for two years before going long.
   3. I believe my spreadsheets on Citigroup are more accurate that Meredith Whitney’s. I did not “sneer” at her work.
   4. I dont believe C will cut its dividend – rather cashflows (using reasonable assumptions) suggest that C can modestly RAISE its dividend in 2009 and 2010. By contrast Meredith thinks C will eliminate its dividend.
   5. Your rationale against the banks seems to be totally based on technical analysis – which is not my approach (mine is fundamental).
   6. Ad hominem attacks, like yours on myself and Cramer are inexcusable and show little class.
   Doug Kass
   Seabreeze Partners

NOTE: Someone remind me to add that site to the blogroll. I’m too fucking busy to log it now, as you readily know and understand. And, let this message ring in Doug’s ear: you’re fucking wrong. So wrong, you’re going to ruin your life, should you continue to believe what your moronic excel spreadsheets conclude. All you have to do, Mr. Big Bank Believer, is take a trip to California and have a looksy at the real estate market—then find religion and swear to never try to get cute and play both sides of the fucking fence, ever again.

Fuck, if I had money at a ‘short only fund’ and that fucker (fund manager) went long bank stocks, into a maelstrom, I’d redeem my money immediately, just on principal alone.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8inztO0Xx8 450 300]

If it weren’t for my largest position [[FTK]] being blown the fuck up, I’d be as happy as a fat fuck in a donut factory. Instead, “The Fly” is enduring uppercuts to the scrotum, as men with small penises sell FTK in size.

As an aside, I threw on a bunch of shorts, namely [[CYN]], [[CSE]], [[HRB]] and a few inverse etf’s—via [[TWM]] and [[REW]].

It’s bloody murder out there; all hands on deck. The idiotic managers of mutual funds and ‘value’ oriented hedge funds are losing their shirts. All of the cheerleading ham fuckers on CNBC are eating some serious shoe here, as the markets nosedive, without safety net. Note ever 10 point uptick, they say: “we’re stabilizing, well off the lows.”

What the fuck is wrong with these people?

What happened to all of the misfits who said “buy the banks”? Or, more importantly, what happened to the people who participated in dilutive secondaries?

My guess, those people are now dead.

“The Fly” warned you of pending doom, should the economy fail to recover in the 2nd half of 2008. Well, we are close to the 2nd half, let me ask you: has the economy bottomed, fuckface?

I thought so.

Finally, it’s important to note that buying dips is no longer a viable investment philosophy. The market is having its head sawed off for it, on a daily basis, without respite.

Do yourself a favor, and get short some bank names to pair up your energy longs. We’re not done going lower.

I bought 2,000 [[FTK]] @ $20.92.

Disclaimer: If you buy FTK because of this post, Guy Adami will deem your biggest position to be “pricey,” “based upon valuation.” And, you may lose money.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wEHd-BCk29o 450 300]

Hop in bull fuckers.

Feel free to get drunk and short stocks.

Carry on.

Top pick: short [[HRB]]

Asshole Charlie Gasparino strikes again!

I just blew out of my [[WB]] for a 2 cent gain. Next thing you know, some greasy meatball thrower is spreading fucking rumors about Jamie “the street magician” Dimon being interesting in buying the company, “for a hefty premium.” As a result, the stock gapped higher.

This fucker is all about helping people get liquid. No fucking way WB gets bought out. And, if it does, no way will they receive a “hefty premium.”

Fucking egregious. Someone put that man in prison.

I bought 5,000 [[REW]] @ $58.75.

Disclaimer: If you buy REW because of this post, your boss will take steroids and throw a barbell at you. And, you may lose money.