iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,419 Blog Posts

Friday Night Laugher

Apparently, Dougie Kass aka ‘Mr. Big Bank Believer’ is making the rounds across the internets, leaving egregious comments— in order to defend his erroneous decision to get long bank stocks—prior to their recent “homo-hammering.”

Full article here.

  1. Doug Kass Says:
    1. I dont cheerlead – I analyze. My analysis is sometimes right and sometimes wrong- unlike your convicted “no chance” that XLF can rally.
    2. I have been short financials for two years before going long.
    3. I believe my spreadsheets on Citigroup are more accurate that Meredith Whitney’s. I did not “sneer” at her work.
    4. I dont believe C will cut its dividend – rather cashflows (using reasonable assumptions) suggest that C can modestly RAISE its dividend in 2009 and 2010. By contrast Meredith thinks C will eliminate its dividend.
    5. Your rationale against the banks seems to be totally based on technical analysis – which is not my approach (mine is fundamental).
    6. Ad hominem attacks, like yours on myself and Cramer are inexcusable and show little class.
    Doug Kass
    Seabreeze Partners

NOTE: Someone remind me to add that site to the blogroll. I’m too fucking busy to log it now, as you readily know and understand. And, let this message ring in Doug’s ear: you’re fucking wrong. So wrong, you’re going to ruin your life, should you continue to believe what your moronic excel spreadsheets conclude. All you have to do, Mr. Big Bank Believer, is take a trip to California and have a looksy at the real estate market—then find religion and swear to never try to get cute and play both sides of the fucking fence, ever again.

Fuck, if I had money at a ‘short only fund’ and that fucker (fund manager) went long bank stocks, into a maelstrom, I’d redeem my money immediately, just on principal alone.

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41 comments

  1. DEVILDOG

    Kass is a dumb ass or he was paid by the banks to help run up their stocks. In either case he sucks. CNBC needs a new bank cheerleader now.

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  2. Q4

    Requiem For A Dream

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  3. Sierra Water

    Kass obviously has no clue. Follow those that have built credibility with out an agenda and you will succeed beyond your wildest dreams. The end is drawing near and you best be ready. Ben & Henry are going to have their hands full.

    “Yesterday was the Mt. Everest summit of the incredulous”

    “Yesterday we witnessed the Chairman checkmate himself. This may be the first time a man in such a prestigious position became self destructive. The destruction continued with four of the Fed speakers.
    If the discount rate is raised the world will be lowered. If rates are not raised the dollar will disappear. If there is an increase that is not repeated in 30 days the dollar will disappear. This is a NO WIN scenario for the Chairman.
    The establishment of a Clearing House for the trillions of presently outstanding default derivatives is total nonsense.”

    “Banks Closed Till Further Notice
    Investment Advice – For more than a year, many of you have asked me for investment advice. I have been unable to provide it as I would like, so finally after enough prodding, I sat for my Series 65 exam and passed it. With the Series 65 I can provide investment advice for a fee, which means I can devote the time necessary to providing you with the very best advice. I will be accepting a limited number of clients in two distinct groups. One, will be high net worth individuals interested in a comprehensive strategy. And the second will be a group of clients interested in Crisis Investing, and how to trade and protect their accounts.

    Depression – I am no longer shy about the word. I have been talking about it for two years, but now my Depression Index is 100%, and after today’s Royal Bank of Scotland announcement, I feel much more comfortable. RBS got the dynamics wrong, but they still understand there is going to be a crash. RBS believes it is attributable to inflationary issues, when in fact, the foundation of the crash will be the failure of international banking. And this will be a direct result of the leverage we have seen mis-used during the last eight years. I should note . . . the leverage with “absolutely no accountability.” More on that for clients, but builders are still building and office/retail/commercial is still going up with non-recourse money. We will talk about this on the Conference Call next week.

    Banks and Financial Institutions – Not a day goes by now that I don’t see something extremely disturbing in the banking/financial sector . . . first hand. Whether it is a spread sheet I am asked to review or an inventory list or a huge project gone bad. I’ve written about assets, inventory and all of the creative ABCs. I also discussed what happens when you strip out CMOs and how the pie was divided into more pieces than there was pie. Just about every day now I am quizzed by a financial institution trying to find the hidden value in their assets. I refer them to Carl Icahn and WCI, and Wilbur Ross and his subprime slime. I tell them to follow the money. It’s not that hard. The money didn’t simply disappear. It just changed hands, and unfortunately it is not in their hands. I tell them to look at what they did yesterday AND what they are doing today AND what they are planning for tomorrow. Nothing much has changed, except they now are compounding the problem by totally mismanaging their assets and not lending to qualified buyers. Strike that. Totally, strike that. . . . . . . .

    Banks Closed Till Further Notice – Banks are not lending BECAUSE they can’t. They can’t lend what they don’t have. They can’t create more leverage, when they are trying to deleverage and get rid of assets worth just a fraction of what they are telling the Fed they are worth. They can’t lend on residential properties that they are dumping without talking to the guys in the office next to them. Depression? Folks, it’s already here. But this time it will take a bit longer to register. We will see bank failures, despite what the totally clueless and misinformed FDIC Chairman Bair said the other day. She has no clue what is going on. This lady is either dumb as a box or slick as a fox. If I had a TV show like Cramer, now would be the time for screaming NO CLUE and beating my fists on the table. Instead, Jimbo just reported a turn in Florida Housing because SPF announced a spike in numbers, and Bob Toll took an extra shot of Kool-Aid!!!! Jimbo, you have No Clue dude, but a hearty stuttering Boo Ya to you. By the way, Jimbo told me I was totally clueless in November of 2006 when I was writing about exactly what we have seen for the last 18 months.

    Cool Down Period – Before I overheat, I will take this opportunity to cool down. It’s sad that we are where we are, and still we have politicians and executives jockeying for position and nose rings. As of now, I must limit some of what I report because my clients feel they are paying for things I discuss in public. But I will close with a banking wrap up.

    I have had the opportunity to speak with quite a few executives from financial institutions. Some of them pay me quite well for my time, but then don’t do anything remotely close to what we discussed. And then they come back two months later wondering what hit them. All of them, without exception, either have no clue what is going on or are simply lying to collect a paycheck. Either way, it is bad. I’ve spoken with some banks about their residential inventory in terms of how to sell it quickly, without huge expenses and for the best price. It’s like talking to a rock underwater. I’ve spoken to institutions that have hundreds upon hundreds of millions invested in projects that I am quite familiar with. They’re still looking for the hidden value because they cannot believe their $300M loan is now only worth $50M. And if you think Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are immune, think again. I can say that now because JPMorgan is not a client and Goldman Sachs has not been a client for a couple of years. You might think I am a jackass for saying that, because they will now never think of giving me new business, but for those that know me . . . they know I always tell it like it is.”

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  4. JakeGint

    Howabout some attribution cochise? You wanna bring the copywrite police down on yer ass?

    Was that Maulden?

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  5. Chuck Prince

    Whoa. Spreadsheets? What the fuck? All I needed was a spreadsheet? Why didn’t someone tell me about this “spreadsheet”, which apparently is so powerful and nuanced it can reveal all there is to know about a vast and complex financial organization? Would’ve saved some trouble!

    PS: Meredith Whitney is a fine piece of ass. Therefore her spreadsheets are more accurate. Sorry.

    PS: “Seabreeze” is a great dryer sheet scent, I recommend it highly.

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  6. BOOMER

    jake – its just overzealous designers. obama’s campaign has some of the best branding i have ever seen. so crisp, consistent, across all media..just sweet. they prob just overstepped the bounds of good taste. but they are good at it.

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  7. Anton Cigur

    That Obama “branding” shit was fucked up. Designers don’t get the final say on what gets seen, Boom. Generally, good media management. Ted Sorensen in the house and all that. But playing the entitlement card? Huh? Worked really well for the former First Lady.

    I don’t hate the guy, even when he says he’s going to take my coin and give it to some “hard working” American. Bitch. But he’s just another politician. With a Jackie Robinson story. And a Ted Sorensen coach.

    But was this the best post to bust that shit, Jake? I’m not coming to visit or anything; I’m just saying. It’s a long time till the election. I’m just saying.

    Dogdevil: All three assertions in your post are wrong.

    Q4: Your clip makes me want to get high, pimp my girlfriend, go to rehab and lose my arm in jail.

    Sierra: You would have convinced me if your shit was only a little fucking LONGER. I was just THIS close to a coma.

    Jake: One for two.

    Chuck: Can’t believe you were shit-canned with your executive grasp of the situation. May you become the next private equity funded Nardelli, but without the GE/Borg dumbass baggage. (Jack Welch and his third-rate “journalist” mistress take turns gargling balls.)

    Kass: You fuck the dog in front of EVERYONE and you whine when people complain about the show? Good luck with the writer’s cramp you’re going to get next week signing redemption checks. Bitch.

    Mr. “The Fly”: Shine on, you crazy diamond.

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  8. haileris

    Fly, agreed.

    Kass should really learn Lesson #1 of machine learning: You never *ever* just want more data. You always want *better data*. Having a billion rows (or 65535 HA!) in some bullshit excel spreadsheet is not gold. Flawed source data is just going to fuck up the analysis. His fucking spreadsheet is likely filled with lies. FAIL.

    What the fuck is he possibly doing in his fucking “spreadsheet”? OMG LETS ADD UP ALL THE POSSIBLE LIABILITIES. Any fucktard can do that. Level 33 excel magician can create random walks, with thousands of pretty lines, but random walks don’t account for everyone foreclosing at the same time. FAIL.

    ALL ABOARD THE FAIL BOAT. WHOO WHOO.

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  9. haileris

    Obama’s design team is fucking class. Having Shepard Fairey and using the Gotham typeface for posters is totally *design orgasm*.

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  10. Hybrid

    A-Fucking-Men FLY

    Well said.

    FLY IS GOD!!!!!!!

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  11. Woodshedder

    “You fuck the dog in front of EVERYONE and you whine when people complain about the show?” Classic, Anton.

    As for technical analysis, looks like Dougie may have saved himself and his clients a few million or more had he decided to pull up a fucking chart or two. Jesus Christ. Who the hell goes to a used car lot, looks at the price, and buys the fucking car SITE UNSEEN? Not very smart. I think we’ll rename the company Sweatbreeze partners.

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  12. boca

    Isn’t this the second time he’s had a great short thesis and then choked and backed off right before it came to fruition? Very unusual.

    I kind of feel sorry for the guy, but the problem is average people might be listening to his advice and making investment decisions on it. I’ve learned the hard way that it’s better for me just not to read TheStreet.com, unless I just want a bit of general overview on a topic.

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  13. chuck bennet

    some body say chuck?

    what a bunch of whinny pussies. I would never let any of you in m y bed.

    regards

    chuck

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  14. reader

    With “The Fly”, “calvino”, “Anton Cigur”, and other “merry men”, it’s safe to say iBC has the best writers of the internets, right here, in one place.

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  15. Crude Broker

    I know you hate chart chomping asshole like myself and others but your FTK looks just fine. My sense is that the heavily shorted stock is just under major pressure to protect the short side of the tape. Upgrades and downgrades are noise. Who is SMH anyway?

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  16. what?

    Did he really say there was a Florida housing turn? wow, my uncle is in rreal estate, and in Ft Lauderdale in all of April there were only something like 160 homes sold.
    There are 1200 fuckin’ realtors in Ft. Lauderdale and only 160 homes sold, you do the math..

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  17. TraderRenn

    What… hopefully your Uncle sold one of the 50 million dollar properties in Fort Lauderdale so he can take the rest of the year off 😉

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  18. TraderRenn

    Did anyone else know the Fed makes up it’s own accounting rules?

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=a70JZmfcakF0&

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  19. BOOMER

    For the anecdotal info files:

    I just got back from the summer NAMM show. Its the event where musical instrument manuf. display their new guitars, amps, etc.

    Every single person I spoke to said business is way off this year. Fender said down 25%, Gibson down 25%, Martin down 30%, etc.

    The only SKUs moving are low price imports.

    Also:

    http://www.tennessean.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080621/COUNTY09/806210350/1164

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  20. Juice

    yeah how fucked up is that Obama seal!? Thats right up there with falsifying evidence to start wars, maybe worse.

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  21. The Fly

    Yeah I know, Obama is the new Hitler.

    You know what’s stupid, former bears, who were right on the banks, reversing and going long.

    It’s almost as if these people are afraid of success. Maybe that’s why they are bears in the first place.

    Actually, maybe they’re not bears at all. Maybe they’re just haters.

    Fucking haters.

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  22. Danny

    isn’t that tim knight’s problem too?

    How has that fucker not retired on a pile of gold given his proclivities and this market?

    Him and Kass should have a fireside chat on the complexities of nondouchebaggery.

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  23. Doug K's ass

    huh, wha? huh? what? I’m a “hater”?
    I dont even know what that is…
    I like doing the opposite of what makes sense, so when people change their mind, I can say “haha I was the first one to tell you”. The banks might go broke, but hey, once they turn around, I’ll be in before everyone else saying “ha ha”.
    Now watch me shake it like a salt shaker

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  24. JakeGint

    Relax your red diapers, there Brucie, I was just making the point that it was kinda ghey. No need to drag out your Democratic Underground bullshit talking points for this one.

    Back to cheerleading for Mr. Image with you now.

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  25. JakeGint

    Doug K’s ass has it spot on, btw.

    Same with Timmah. More inclined toward’s “I told you so” than banking coin.

    __

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  26. JakeGint

    Can’t you laser Dino’s blog now that you’re done with it?

    He takes …unsolicited “liberties.”

    ___

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  27. Sierra Water

    Duc,
    The point is you can not have a clearing house engineered by the fed for otc derivative items that do not have standards. It will not work. Don’t take my word for it, just watch..

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  28. Juice

    It wasn’t kinda ghey, Jake Sean Hannity Gint, it was extremely ghey but hardly worth mentioning in the scheme of games politicians play, unless you’re trying to advance your own beliefs.

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  29. JakeGint

    No, Bruce, no candidate in the history of the game has crafted his own quasi-fascist state seal before.

    No American candidate, at least.

    So it was worth me mentioning as odd, no?

    But hey, you go back to your completely objective, “libertarian” support of the Obamessiah, Bruce “Keith Olbermann” Juice.

    _

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  30. Big Mike

    How do you know thats Doug Kass right there, and not some asshole who got capped following Kass’s move?

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  31. JimH

    Check this for data re a second half recovery in 2998…
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/82235-economic-report-summary-more-bad-news-for-housing-and-manufacturing

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  32. Anton Cigur

    This is from the Real Money site, for all of you who missed the G550 flight to Monaco:

    Patrick Schultz
    Brazen and Raw Negativity
    6/20/2008 4:42 PM EDT

    Hedge fund managers are gathered in Monaco for Europe’s largest hedge fund conference, and I am struck by the depth and unabashed negativity by so many money managers. A Bloomberg article refers to a survey where more than 80% of money managers said they expect the current financial problems to continue, and a quarter predicts significant deterioration.
    Here are some money-manager quotes pulled from the article:

    “It may be the worst recession since the Great Depression, that’s not impossible. There’s a lot of negatives out there.”
    “These times will get worse before they get better.”
    “We have a lot more wood to chop. I wouldn’t be surprised to see another $600 billion in losses.”
    “This is a major, major event. It’s going to take a while to resolve itself. In the last recession, the banking industry was healthy. This time it’s very, very sick.”
    Have all of these managers already made their negative bets? Who is left to sell or short?

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  33. Anton Cigur

    But is it news?

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  34. Juice

    Oh, so the seal was a first? BIG Whoop dee doo dah, whoop dee day!

    The seal is stupid, so what .. easy to spin controversy out of dumb, harmless, campaign idiocy.

    btw, your usual straw man/ad hominem attacks, which you can’t help yourself from tossing in against anyone who holds a different viewpoint than you, not to mention your attempted malicious insults, are jeuvenile. But of course, in the confused world that JakeGint lives in, true democracy has no place, only Jakes logic spun out of selfish interests.

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  35. Jakegint

    Fuck off, Bruce, you’re lucky this shit is stale.

    Don’t talk to me about “ad homenum” and my “selfish interests” when You know SHIT about me and my family, and — by the way — YOU JUST CALLED ME “SEAN HANNITY,” two posts back!

    Fucking hypocrite Dems, you are ALL the fucking same. “Do as I say, not as I fucking do.” Fuck you, Bruce, you gigantic government loving pussy. Good luck with the Obamessiah and thinking everyone who doesn’t buy into your BIG GOV’T bureauacratic paradise is only concerned with “selfish interests.” I guarantee you I out-volunteer houred you, AND out-charity contributed your commie ass last year, and you’re probably RETIRED!

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