Revolution is in the Air

The Greek communists are now battling the anarchists. Apparently, the anarchists feel there should be revolution, right fucking now. The communists believe it is not the time for revolt. This is like the French revolution, prior to the guillotine. This is just the beginning of the Greek fun. These fuckers are not docile. They are violent and militant. Stock market aside: the ECB is out of their fucking minds lending any more money to Greece. They should boot them out of the EU, send that funding to Italy and the market will soar. By funding this Greek tragedy, they are encouraging revolution. Imagine if Greece gets the money, then the country falls to maniac anarchists?

Futures are strong based on this not being 2008 again. People are just dying to buy stocks, no matter what. As bearish as I sound, if we close out October with a 5%+ gain, I will be positioning long for a gobble-gobble run, thanks in part to the Turkey Gods. However, after Thanksgiving, rest assured, Santa Claus is going to bash your brains in with a mace.

In short, I believe we have a maximum 2% upside to this market in October and another 3% in November for a grande [sic] total of 5% upside from current levels. The downside is 20%.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oT2uF2APMgw 603 500]

Comments »

Put your handguns down and click this link and listen to the Steve Wynn conference call rant, starting at exactly 45:00.

I will try to get my own audio shortly.

UPDATE: We uploaded it to youtube.

Direct youtube link for iPhone players.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pCXrgYlAyKE 603 500]

 

My take: Steve Wynn is a master orator. His command of the english language is unparalleled and his cadence is perfect. This administration has infected the psyche of America to hate the rich. There is divisiveness like I’ve never seen before, coming from the left and the right. Instead of uniting this country in a time of hardship, Obama has opted to drive the wedge deeper. This is not an endorsement of the republicans, as I hate them too. I am simply giving you my observation and insight, as to why this economy is doing so poorly at a time when businesses are so rich.

Personally, I’ve been struggling with making a major business move for over a year, mainly due to complacency. Should I choose to make this move, it will employ people at a premium wage. But I’ve opted to wait until the business environment improves– because I can.  I’m not struggling, so why take the risk? The entrepreneurial spirit is being stifled under the loud fog horns of government, both Federal and local. On a separate note, I’ve been meaning to move into a larger house for over 2 years, yet have opted to “stick it out” due to an “assholish housing market” (the words of my realtor). I have more than enough savings to buy my target home 100% cash. But why buy now when that shit is going the fuck lower?

There is no sense of urgency, which is the primary reason why we are stuck in the mud, spinning our wheels.

Comments »

Bear with me for a moment. To be optimistic is constructive and desirable for all successful, well rounded people. I get it. However, on occasion, you need to take a step back and look at the big picture for a moment.

With regards to Europe: I contend, it’s impossible for Germany to accept any terms that lead to a pan-European bailout. No German politician can survive the backlash at home. Moreover, the numbers do not work. Italian 10 yr bonds are north of 5.9% for Christ’s sake. How the fuck do you expect the IMF or the ECB to fund Greek, Italian, Portuguese and Spanish debt–all at the same time? I’m not being bearish for the sake of being a bear or to be different. This is not rocket science, but hard facts staring you right in the fucking face.

And yes, European QE is a non-starter.

While I am sure some savvy politician will concoct some plan to stave off the inevitable, I do know one thing for certain: the s&p will be under 1,000 inside of 6 months. It’s never keen to bet against stocks heading into Turkey day. But, after you stuff your fat faces, like the gluttons that you are, we are going lower–and fast. It will be quite the spectacle.

For the day, I was almost exactly flat. WNR @ 20% of assets down 7%= -1.4%. GSVC @ 5% of assets down 2.6%= -0.13%. VXX @ 20% of assets up 6.67%=  +1.33%. EXH short @5% of assets down 4.64%= +.23%. And, in my personal, I am 100% long TZA. Despite the string of wins for the bulls, my current hedging strategy is successfully holding my 16% YTD gains. After this episode of selling is complete, and my research is done, I will begin allocating cash into longer term positions, all to do with my new thesis mentioned earlier today. For PPT members, I posted my raw, unedited list of stocks for your perusal.

 

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HeaHW-rUsUQ 603 500]

Comments »

Finally, I’ve come to grips with the notion that trading in and out of inane tech and basic material stocks is equal to playing with a dynamite rigged Jack in the Box. It’s all fun and games until Jack blows your skeleton to pieces.

Over the past 6 months, I’ve been dodging bullets, using my market timing mechanisms, via The PPT, to trade in and out of stocks like CLF, WNR, TEX, VMW, just to name a few. Generally speaking, despite my gains, I am not happy with my lifestyle here, always worrying about shoes dropping or special market moving surprises from our beloved politicians.

So, I’m going back to my roots, delving into food and beverage again. There was a time when I traded names like HANS, BWLD and WFM exclusively, some of you are well aware. At any rate, I’ve done the preliminary analysis and will begin the process of elimination to find some solid companies that I can toss millions into without worrying about catching a knife to the face, whenever the market decides to tank again.

A few freebies: FIZZ and SUSS are booming, both in different ways. FIZZ is in the process of cleaning out the company coffers, via special dividends. Why? Answer: insiders own 76% of shares outstanding. Dividends are taxed at a lower rate and these fuckers are cleaning house, having paid out over $160 million in special divvys, over the past two years–both done in Q1.

SUSS is a great play on the Texas economy, being the largest transporter of fuel in Texas and having over 500 food service locations. They are benefiting from favorable demographics, as the Texas population increases and an overall strong local economy.

I will have a full list of stocks worth your perusal within a few days to a week.

Comments »

CNBC is reporting from Greece and it’s not pretty. These fuckers are tossing bombs around and lighting barrels of garbage on fire. Do you know where they are getting said garbage from? The fucking sidewalks, since the sanitation workers are on strike.

Come on already. This is extreme violence, not some pussified Occupy Wall Street shit. These bastards are gonna overthrow the government. Why would Germany give any money to them? It makes no sense.

Fuck this shit. I’m not buying anything.

Comments »

For the 24th anniversary of one of America’s funnest days (the 1987 crash), I compiled some nostalgic videos for your bearshitters out there.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=04_Y2rTSBms 603 500] [youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2MyToTwag34 603 500] [youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9iE-bn0xBU&feature=related 603 500] [youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5PUwr8DsYeg 603 500] [youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YCUsb3y0Sr4 603 500] [youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XFn1G2goDQw&feature=results_video&playnext=1&list=PLC11059F8336E2317 603 500] [youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lm_4j-_Dnwc&feature=results_video&playnext=1&list=PLC11059F8336E2317 603 500] [youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o_fxEoF8Vl8&feature=results_video&playnext=1&list=PLC11059F8336E2317 603 500]

Comments »

News out of Europe is bullish again. The EFSF, as reported for weeks, will be levered up to $2 trilly in order to save the union. As a consequence, the European version of QE will lend to market liquidity. Hence, we are seeing a sharp short covering rally.

Last year QE2 was announced and I doubted the viability of such a plan. It took awhile to catch on, as I muddled through a VXX hedge. But, eventually, I caught on quick with enforcement, killing people from Thanksgiving to Christmas. No one really knows what European QE will do, other than stave off collapse. The reason why people are furiously bidding up stocks is because of last year’s experience. However, we ran with fundamentals too. It wasn’t all QE, frankly.

This year the economy is in disrepair and the EU is already flatlining to recession.

Aside from a one day, free money bonfire celebration, I am emphatic in my belief that this upswing is unsustainable. As a result, I remain in cash.

For the day, I am off by 0.1%, as VXX, EXH, TZA sink me, my vertically erect WNR offsets those losses and keeps me in a position of power.

Comments »

Nope, not buying it yet. On the other hand, I am not selling it either. Consider “The Fly” something of an enigma, a machine propelled only by winning. More so, he feeds of off your untimely defeat.

The rally is underway, after an early morning spike to the helmet. By golly, out of nowhere stocks screamed higher as if the sellers were lit aflame and tossed into ovens. Well, if I must take a position, it is to take nothing at all. I am short by a degree of 5% with 60% of my assets in cash. I am not betting large on a decline, despite thinking it will happen, because of the desperate nature of our policy makers to buoy markets–no matter what. That’s what stocks have been running on for more than 2 weeks.

As a matter of fact, I do not think the word “running” does justice to the type of V-shaped “fuck you, you’re dead” rhino stampede we’ve enjoyed lately. It reminds me of the market bottom of 1998, only without all of the “awesome and amazing” technological revolutions and booming economies to fall back on. This time around, we have “Robo-China” and their planned growth of 9.1% per annum, no matter what. How convenient for the world to have such a wonderful backstop. The Mother of all back stops, our benevolent friends, the Chinese.

No matter the Chinese send “mobile execution” vehicles to people who commit minor crimes for proper and efficient life terminations. As long as they keep the jackasses at FOXCONN in check, so that we can enjoy the genius of Steve Jobs, vis a vis shiny new iPads.

Then again, Wall Street is the enemy, since we make Apple’s stock go higher, which in turn employs more people at FOXCONN and the eventual execution/suicide of weak minded line workers. We are so fortunate to have the Occupy Wall Street crowd speaking out for the little guy, telling the world how evil Wall Street is, with all of their heavy handed policies and such.

Speaking of which, the war in Libya went well and we’ve managed to secure plenty of light sweet crude for the fucking Italians and French. Now that Libya is out of the way, we can redouble our efforts to focus on what is important, such as oil in Uganda.

As an aside, I’m sitting out this rally, in order fine tune by orbital space cannon.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKYocOa2A2Q&feature=related 603 500]

Comments »

Goldman lost money on purpose, just to disarm the Occupy Wall Street crowd from sashaying around with headline news. They could have easily reduced compensation from 40% to a lower number and avoid looking like a bunch of losers. But “The Blankfein” is a clever bastard, always thinking ahead. Betting against Goldman has been a very successful trade this year. However, I sense the downside to the stock is now limited, ironically, now that they are booking losses, albeit on purpose.

As an aside, I’d like to offer 10,000 apologies to some of you for my recent spate of partisan commentary. Between Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street protests, I am losing my mind. I want to launch scud missiles–tipped with mustard gas heads– from my silo in Brooklyn, into said protests. I have the orbital space cannon (OSC) on standby and ready to vaporize whole columns of lightly armored vehicles.

As for stocks, I expect more downside today and for the rest of the year, especially on holidays. Whatever version of doom and gloom you have going on there, talking shit at cocktail parties, blogging about FEMA camps, “The Fly” one-ups you with talk of market crashes on Christmas and other such holy retail days. I’m talking about the Easter Bunny eating your face, whilst your portfolio hits zero. Sorry about that one. It is too early in the morning to even think about the fucking Easter Bunny.

As an odd form of consolation, please accept this “musical piece” as payment for my transgressions.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B16F0IQ-gX0 603 500]

Comments »

I closed out the day up, thanks to my rapid sales and EXH, VXX, TZA shorts. I did some reshuffling and I now have 20% of assets in WNR (yes, I bought today), 5% in GSVC, 20% short in EXH, TZA, VXX and 60% cash. The reason why I am so quick to sell is due to the possibility we all wake up to the market indicating down 10%.

Despite the cocaine driven euphoria of last week, the problems are really “that” intense. Although speculation and liquidity are able to drive stocks higher, the fundamentals, which actually mean something, are telling you to run.

Like I said numerous times in the past, the downside to the S&P is around 700-800. For the love of dead dogs and deranged cats, we are at 1,200! Think about how ridiculous that is, the market being up for the year, then get back to me with a real investment strategy.

If you want a real tangible reason to sell, look no further than SLF. First, let me remind you that insurance firms have massive exposure to equities and need yields to be rich. The fact that stocks have underperformed and treasuries have soared is the worst case scenario for them. Consider the fact that pension funds use inane math to calculate performance, such as 8% 10 year returns–based on “history.” Well that number is derived by the dependence on yield from US treasuries. Now that yields are drill bits, they need to outperform in stocks. Well, aside from the 14% one week return, stocks have been sucking dick. Hence, look forward to massive pension shortfalls and comically bad earnings reports from the likes of SLF, MET, HIG and others.

Sun Life earnings press release:

The Company expects to report a loss of $621 million for the quarter. On an operating basis, the loss is expected to be $572 million. Results for the third quarter include losses related to substantial declines in both equity markets and interest rate levels, which particularly impacted the individual life and variable annuity businesses in SLF U.S. The third quarter was a period of exceptional market volatility. North American equity markets dropped by 12% – 14%, while yields on fixed income securities fell amid economic uncertainty in the European Union and U.S. monetary policy actions aimed at lowering interest rates on long-term treasuries. In the U.S., treasury rates reached historic lows, with 30-year yields down 146 basis points to 2.91%. Under the Canadian insurance accounting model, the future impact of September 30, 2011, market conditions is reflected in our current period results.

Losses from equity market and interest rate movements were at the high end of the ranges previously disclosed in the Company’s Management’s Discussion and Analysis for the second quarter of 2011. Key drivers which resulted in market impacts at the high end of the estimated ranges included uneven movements across the yield curve and the impact of large, simultaneous movements in both interest rates and equity markets. Updates to the Company’s actuarial methods and assumptions, which generally take place in the third quarter of each year, contributed approximately $200 million to the loss. Sun Life Assurance Company of Canada remains well capitalized, with a Minimum Continuing Capital and Surplus Requirements (MCCSR) ratio that is estimated to be approximately 210% as at September 30, 2011.

The Company currently expenses hedging costs for variable annuities and segregated funds in the period in which they are incurred. In the fourth quarter of 2011, the Company plans to make a method and assumption change related to the valuation of its variable annuity and segregated fund liabilities whereby it will provide for the estimated future lifetime hedging costs of these contracts in its liabilities. This change is expected to result in a higher level of future earnings from in-force contracts than would be the case using the current methodology. The impact of this change on the net income of the Company in the fourth quarter will depend on interest rates and other market conditions as at December 31, 2011, as well as further refinements to the valuation methodology. If this change was made under current market conditions the expected one-time reduction in fourth quarter net income is estimated to be approximately $500 million. The impact of this change on the MCCSR ratio of Sun Life Assurance is expected to be positive, as the increase in variable annuity and segregated fund liabilities will reduce the amount of regulatory required capital for these products.

“Losses from equity market and interest rate movements were at the high end of the ranges previously disclosed,” Sun Life said in a statement.

 

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QRckY9N2sDA 603 500]

Comments »