I bought a small amount of TZA.
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Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,479 Blog Posts
Fly Sell: TNA, EXK
I sold both TNA and EXK.
Comments »All Hands on DECK
Yesterday a gentleman analyst at Credit Suisse, Christian Buss, alluded to “accelerating stock-outs” at Nordstrom and Uggsaustralia websites. Moreover, he said this is likely to deter from discounting, which inevitably will help DECK margins. Very nice. Very clean.
My friends and I drank aged brandy and were delighted over this report, whilst throwing fresh logs on the fire.
IN WALKS FUCK FACE.
This Morning, once SUPER-BULL, now MEGA-BEAR-SHITTER on DECK, Sam Poser from Stern Agee, visited my fireplace and pissed all over it, saying:
There still appear to be plenty of UGGs around as Hanukkah and Christmas are upon us
n Women’s Classic inventory is in good shape and slippers get a mixed review: After reviewing the uggaustralia.com and the norsdtrom.com websites yesterday afternoon, we conclude that an ample supply of UGGs is available. We counted all regular price boots and slippers on each site. Given the warm weather, we expect that there may be some 1Q12 cancelations, and fall 2012 orders will likely reflect 2010 rather than 2011, due to strong but not strong enough sales and concerns for the future due to warm weather, modestly increased domestic distribution, and pending price increases that may take some UGG styles from affordable luxury to luxury.
n Nordstrom still in position to sell boots: On the Nordstrom (JWN-$48.87-Buy) site, slippers are 52% in stock, Classic and classic derivatives are 71% in stock, basic fashion boots are 68% in stock, cold weather boots are 63% in stock, and better fashion boots are 75% in stock. Only 8 of the 29 slippers are 100% in stock and 16 are less than 50% in stock. 8 of the 30 classic styles are 100% in stock, and 23 of the 30 are over 50% in stock, with most of the stock-outs in sizes 10 and 11. Of the 37 fashion boots, 9 are 100% in stock and 24 are over 50% in stock, and once again most of the stock-outs are in fringe sizes. The cold weather boots have 10 of 12 styles with over 50% in stock. The remaining styles only have small sizes left. All of the better fashion boots have over 67% in stock, and sizes missing are only small and large sizes; the core sizes are in stock.
n UGG’s website has oodles of boots and slippers: On the Ugg Australia website, slippers are 75% in stock, Classics are 63% in stock, fashion boots are 85% in stock, cold weather boots are 88% in stock, and better fashion boots are 96% in stock. Of the 61 slippers on line, 36 are fully in stock, and 47 styles are over 50% in stock. Of the 59 Classic boots, 33 have no stock-outs, and 42 are greater than 50% in stock. Of the 72 fashion boots 47 are completely in stock, and only 10 are under 50% in stock. 12 of the 29 cold weather boots are totally in stock and none are below 50%. Most missing sizes are fringe sizes. Sizes 7 through 9 in cold weather boots are 89% to 100% in stock.
n No lack of product: While we have no hard data as to the in-stock position at this time last year, we contend, based on our channel checks, that there was much less available than there is today. We have been concerned that if UGG supply meets demand, an inflection point would be at hand. We appear to be there, and again expect retailers to be cautious as they plan 2H12. The UGG business will still be large, but orders will likely be flat to down year over year in the back half of ’12.
To be clear, this man had a $130 price target on DECK up until last week. Then, because of the warm weather, he said “nah, I don’t like DECK anymore” and cut his target by $58 to $72. One of three things are happening here, in my opinion.
Here are the possibilities.
1. Sam has some inside information.
2. Sam is trying to hit a grand slam, currying media attention via outrageous calls.
3. Sam is a fucktard and is wrong about DECK, just like he was wrong on SKX @ $40 and CROX @ $30.
Well, we will find out soon enough, when DECK reports earnings in February. My money is on the gentleman from Credit Suisse.
In other news, European markets are trending lower, after big overnight gains. The reason for the profit taking is simple. The fucking ECB just lent a record $645 billion to 523 European banks (3 year), well above expectations. In other words, the ECB just saved the European banking system. Of the 523 banks, 12 of them were drunken Irish.
People need to digest this shit before throwing bowling balls at bearshitters again. Bond yields are little changed and all in all, despite lower S&P futures, things aren’t so bad. Following yesterday’s melt-up, today will be a win if the S&P can trade flat to down 0.5%. Should we start to trade up, well then, the bears’ dicks are going to be cut off in extremely short and egregious order.
The Oracle Will Not Save You
I don’t care about the European crisis or a US slowdown. All I want to know is where the fuck are stocks going tomorrow?
I am going to hammer a fucking rail spike through your fucking craniums tomorrow, stealing presents from under Zerohedge’s tree. I’m long the same level for about two weeks now, 75% equities/25% cash. I haven’t spent the cash because, frankly, I was a pussy. But now the worm is turning and it’s for no good reason.
Rallies on faux news gets me nervous. However, monstrous melt ups for no reason other than to ignorantly paint tapes and manipulate prices higher is dangerous, for the shorts that is. You do not stand a chance against the tidal wave of pension and hedge fund dollars about to flood the market for one last hoorah!
In exactly one year from today, based upon the prophecies of the Mayans, the world will end. If we are in the 9th inning of civilization, who gives a fuck about Italian bond yields and Greek protestors?
PFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF.
Get your RICK ROSS on and feed that fucking gorilla a kilo of uncut cocaine. One for the road.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X99NHkybwbQ
Comments »SANTA STRIKES BACK!
Almost broken, Santa Claus regained the initiative today, hammering out the shorts, like pizza dough, into submission on no news. You can make believe there was news; but in reality, this was Santa Claus in action. May the brains pasted on the bottom of the blades of his sleigh stain the pavement in memory of those who needed to be sacrificed today.
My largest positions shot higher today; but I need more. While it’s true, The PPT‘s “3 tier system” ended up a winner again, long TNA from $42-43 with 1/3rd of my capital invested. I need more.
Here are some levels for you to become familiar with, as it pertains to the belligerency of my insults.
LULU @ $50
DECK @ $104
WNR @ $17
RBCN $10
EXK @$10.25
DVR @$2.45
GMXR @ $1.65
MDR @ $11
GSVC @$20
Those are not my costs for the aforementioned stocks, but price targets. We all have numbers running through our minds, some more than others. While I calculate digits in my head at a highly proficient rate, you eat “cheeze” doodles like a fucking dog.
At any rate, the rally was plentiful and today’s gains helped. Nevertheless, I remain strapped into my car made from dynamite sticks, pedal to the metal, heading straight for the fucking sun.
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The Market is the Honey Badger
It doesn’t give a fuck about Italian yields or whole continents sinking into a fucking sinkhole. It wants to go up, without regards for reality.
As for me, I will be elated to get some of my fucking money back. Like the honey badger, I don’t give a shit.
On a side note, I will be out and about this afternoon, dining with dignity and honor at one of my favorite restaurants. So you know, we are celebrating something of great importance.
Good luck and be well.
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Short Hills Mall, Santa Klaus and Moon Rocks
Let me be the first to tell you, it is inappropriate to boil water for more than 5 seconds when preparing tea, specifically black tea infused with bergamot. You do realize by scalding the water you are destroying any chance at a proper cup of tea, don’t you? In case you were wondering, “The Fly” spent his day shopping at the Mall at Short Hills. Doing my regular “channel checks” whilst Mrs. Fly made a go at emptying the old checking account. Little does she know, my checking account is like a bottomless pit. It would take her an eternity to bankrupt me. Actually, let me retract that. If Mrs. Fly ever got the urge to invest in stocks, I’d be zeroed out inside of a short week.
Back to the Mall at Short Hills. Women were ripping $5,000 aprons off the fucking mannequins. People had to buy shit and if it wasn’t retailing for more than $300, they were not interested. Dead smack in the middle of the mall was a fucking Rolls Royce. People passed that shit like “so fucking what, I have two of those in the driveway.” Aside from the vagrants found at a certain watch store that does not suit my taste, the mall was delightful. It has a certain feel to it, circa dot com bubble 1999. Life inside that mall epitomizes decadence and grotesqueness. Forget about depressing Italian bond yields and fucked up German hair cuts. Go buy your Grandmother a fucking Louis Vuitton bag for 10 grande!
I suppose you want to talk about the stock market, don’t you? I was afraid this blog would boil down to this. The futures are cordially higher this evening because people want to feel good when it doesn’t count. We are in the off-hours aka “fantasy time,” when investors day dream about German Santa Klaus’s and free money dropping from Bernnake air force jets onto a joyous Wall Street crowd. Obama in a Santa hat and Geithner dressed as an elf, making toys. In the off hours, we dream about a market that was supposed to be, but just didn’t happen because we destroyed the fucking planet.
No worries, your friendly local oil companies will horizontally drill your ass into the stone age soon, depleting all fresh water supplies, parching your family into raisins. As for me, I will continue fighting until my last round. I will attack bears while donning African masks and throw people onto beach rocks from my space shuttle. You do not need to worry about Le Fly, for he is a survivor. In 400 years from now, he will be here, blogging about the same shit, reminiscing about the time he participated in the melting of the moon, while mining for moon-rocks, while punching martians in the face with space knuckles.
Comments »A Zerohedged X-Mas
Forget about receiving presents this holiday season. The banks are going to zero and you’re all gonna fucking die. The bears will die too; but they will do so happy, knowing their short positions were squirting higher. In the big scheme of things, today is everything. There has never been a more important time in western finance than now. Feel solace in knowing you got fucked when capitalism failed.
That being said, the cocksuckers in Europe aren’t practicing capitalism. Instead, they favour [sic] communism, led by men with big ears and bald heads.
Without further adieu, I am pleased to announce BAC is now trading under $5. I yearn for the day when it trades to $00.00, effectively wiping out the savings accounts of every single American. Berkshire Hathaway will force BAC to issue new shares. The whole game is rigged and Warren is the devil.
Into the final minutes of trade, I expect losses to be felt in a wide array of sectors, FUCKING any and all inflationistas. Effectively, Jim Rogers is having his skull fucked for him, long all of the shit that goes down. Hey, in other news, DECK is now a “store of value,” as bitches buy up the fury boots with great fervor and tenacity. After all, the weather is rather chilly in NYC today, in-fucking-deud.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I92FuSNiTi4
Comments »Next up: Tax Loss Selling
Even though the indices show little changed, under the hood of this market 2011 was an abomination. All of 2010’s momentum, hedge fund favorites, have been dismantled. Expect these stocks to get spiked into the New Year. Why hold onto shit, when you could book the loss and gain peace of mind?
On the other hand, I expect many stocks to be oversold by small dicked failures. Let their failures transform into your success. As the branches of old/stupid money managers fall onto the ground, decomposing into the soil, new trees will emerge, feeding off their demise. That is nature and it applies to every aspect of life and business.
Here are some names that might undergo wholesale liquidations.
CME
CRM
FFIV
FLS
FSLR
BEN
GS
APA
CMI
PH
JOY
MTB
BDX
NFLX
EW
CHRW
SLB
AGU
CTSH
CLF
XEC
WLT
DVN
SPW
BG
MHS
RIMM
MWW
CREE
MOS
SOHU
ANR
ROVI
CCJ
X
NIHD
DLB
YOKU
C
TCK
The above names are down more than 10% for the year and are owned by institutions in excess of 30%. Frankly, the list goes on and on and on. The full list is provided inside The PPT.
Comments »THE MARKET IS A McRIB
Mcdonald’s is active in killing people through their food. As a result of their “success”, the shares of MCD have soared and will likely trade higher. Recently, the slobs from MCD re-introduced the McRib. YUMMY!
Basically, the McRib is a piece of shit, mixed with pig innards, organs, tongue and lots of salt– all glued together and pasted on a bun. It’s entirely poisonous and will likely kill many people.
The stock market bears similar qualities to the McRib. It too is a piece of shit, cobbled together by the glue of the Federal Reserve. You eat it because you like money, similar to pork aficionados devouring multiple sandwiches of McRib.
The commodity trade is dead. The tech trade is dead. The bank trade is dead. Tell me, what trade is left?
ANSWER: McRib.
It’s rather ironic, is it not? I don’t mean to whine about the trials and tribulations of investors; but the whole matrix is broken. Look at GS. If that doesn’t spell trouble, I don’t know if trouble exists.
Once again, we’re diving lower. Money is getting airlifted into TLT because systemic failure is ’round the corner, courtesy of Europe.
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