I cannot believe Italian yields are below 6%. Spanish yields are at 5.14% and the crisis that was running red hot two weeks ago has vanished, literally. There is now panic buying taking place in distressed European debt and global equities and sell offs in German and American paper.
It’s all very nice that we get to enjoy this respite. However, don’t forget about declining global growth, which will pose as a significant headwind in 2012. I am all for this GORILLA RUN now. However, in 2012, my outlook is very somber and I believe profits should be taken, especially if you can’t take the heat.
When enjoying melt ups like this, remember the pain you felt just two weeks ago. This rally, as “awesome an amazing” as it is, will end. There is a specific algorithm to this market. I have proved this by inventing The PPT. If my edge is greater than 50%, I am ahead of the game. We are running analysis on the lifetime of PPT scores and the data is absolutely astounding.
Peaks and valleys. The market is a like a terrain filled with low and high points. It is your job to lighten up near the top and reload near the bottom. If you can do this without blowing yourself up, you will have a great investment program. Having said that, profits should be taken up here in increments. That doesn’t mean you sell everything and go short. You will not hurt yourself by putting 20-30% of your assets to cash. The greed you people demonstrate is grotesque and almost unbelievable.
Also, stop overweighting in 1-3 stocks. If you cannot afford to invest in at least 5 stocks, you are gambling. If you can live with that, so can I. However, some of you Uncle Fuckers have millions in the market and buy 1-3 stocks, hoping to hit pay dirt. Are you fucking insane? Your lack of respect for money is borderline criminal.
I sense weakness in this tape. Buyers are exhausted and sellers are creeping in. Several of my positions are red today and I’ve shed 1/3rd of my intra-day gains. I am not worried about the bottom falling out because European yields are cratering. But that doesn’t mean we can’t have an ordinary, olde fashioned sell off.
Following my double down in RBCN, I ceased all buy orders. I am a seller into further strength and will reserve my cash for dips.
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Hazzah indeud!
On the other hand how many are too much … 20?
More than 15 is too much
I generally use a basket (4-5) for each sector … materials, tech, ind’l, etc. So I should either cut back in the number of sectors or limit the number of stocks in each sector … Thnx
That’s a shitload of stocks TeaHouse…for years, 7-11 stocks for me…not sure how I came to that range but works for me…manageable and still somewhat diversified. Also, enough stocks to allow for long & short plays.
I use diversity to spread risk but that also limits gains too … I have been thinking about reducing the size of each basket and selling into this leg up will provide the opportunity to raise cash and do just that. Thanks for your comment.
“buy 1-3 stocks, hoping to hit pay dirt. Are you fucking insane?”
that is what most of “traders” are doing here and don’t realize winning in the stock market is a job, just like any other.
so put on your robe, sit in your underwear, and go watch little symbols flicker red n green aaaaaaall day. hmmmmm, now that is fun.
Mr.Fly, are you still holding on to your RBCN or selling a portion of it?
Get your “A” game on … he just added to his holding in RBCN.
I just doubled down.
Thanks. I figured but was not sure with the current post.
You should sell LULU. They made your but look big this morning.
Fly, what say you on S&P surpassing it’s 200dma?
Could bounce there for more upside and some panic buying shortly after…
Like to put most of my eggs in one etf basket and then watch the basket,but then again,my time frame is usually intra-day.
Speaking of which, the new etfs, ONN & OFF, look promising as trading stocks.
The spreads are being kept tight, seems to accurately follow what they are supposed to (at least for now)but needs more volume.
Have them on my watchlist.
Clap ONN…clap OFF ETF’s…
So true plus get a chia pet and you are all set.
My children, FTK is ripe for a modest profit taking. In Ben We Trust. May the Bernank be with you.
How do you conclude FTK has pending profit taking?
FLY, which indicator do you observer there are lots of weakness in the market? Mkt breadth or performance of leading stocks?
Looks like gold might go back to it’s historical inverse relationship with Mother Market…
Interesting.
I have eight stocks and 55% cash.
Simply put……I just don’t have a firm feel for direction here and any result would not be a surprise.
So I won’t argue with anyone’s directional view……..you could be right.
Fly – don’t listen to the impostor posing as me on this board. I thought your skin tight LULU yoga pants were quite flattering this morning, especially when you were in the downward dog position. I say hold onto LULU and I think you you should buy more stock and pants – and wear them even when we aren’t having our one on one sessions.
(laughter) ERX is up something like 20% in 5 days, all thanks and praise to higher gasoline costs for the jackass consumer.
When the effects of that hit, things are going to get ugly, but it’s all party in the meantime.
My children, I am going to get a little aggressive here – no too much, but just a little smidgen. We will finish the month higher.
I respectfully disagree with Fly here. Anything more than 5 stocks you might as well buy a mutual fund. I have personally been succesful holding leas than 5 stocks
Successful over how many years? (Not a flame, just a question)
thats because you have a 4 fig zeeco act
Appreciate the insight, but miss the Ferocious Posts…..almost shed a tear. Thx FLY
I only trade off the SPX action these days – Oct. 4 marked the IT low for my current position. Based on the counts 18 days on the first leg up – then 20 down to the Nov. 25 bottom of that distribution wave. Today is 6 in the wave up – IMHO we are going higher IT (with Dec. 19-22 being the top) – and should see buy the dips until that week
I hate more than six, but when you’re holding a divvi play like AWK which doesnt’t require as much management, it’s easier to increase the count.
When Italian and Spanish Bonds don’t make sense..it normally is the ECB playing their little intervention tricks (which makes sense on italian news of slowing their economy with cost cuts). ECB only releases the number of bond buying once a week, and I bet it will be on the larger size this week.
S&P drops WMD on the bulls ….
S&P rating agency and other are a joke! Why do we still put so much merit in their late to the game views?
They are so behind the curve and statistically fail long term.
Who are those guys?
More than 5 stocks because the charts are sooooo different?
NOT!
My gorilla lost cocaine under the coach. Now he is snorting dust bunnies.