INTRODUCING iBANKCOIN’S “CRISIS PAGE”

For those of you who are too disheveled to afford a bloomberg terminal, the Godly folks at iBC are happy to present  (THE CRISIS PAGE HAS BEEN REMOVED, TEMPORARILY, AS  YOU ARE UNDESERVING OF SUCHNESS, AT THIS POINT IN TIME. DEVELOPING…) On this glorious concoction of a page you will find CDS, european bond yields, select bank stock quotes, futures and commodities, alongside currencies. Keep in mind, this is a work in progress and we will be adding to the page as I DEEM FIT.

Any suggestions will be ignored and entirely discarded into the trash heap of history.

Thank you.

I’m wrapping up the week with titanicesque losses, channeling John Paulson into a “fuck cab” and driving it into a wall of plutonium. Yesterday I was blessed with a 10% haircut in DECK; today I get GSVC. On Monday I expect some other position to drop by 10%, maybe LULU or EXK.

It doesn’t really matter at this stage “in the game.” I got my javelin in hand and I am ready to fucking launch that shit through faces.

Nothing you say will make me feel better or worse. See, I’m getting my fucking Paulson on–TITANIC losses aboard, nosediving off cliffs onto hard rocks. While other people swim in warm waters and drink pina coladas, “The Fly” swims with chum attached to his face and cock, in sub zero waters, littered with sharks.

Last I checked, I was still up for the year; but I don’t really give a shit about that anymore. I am resigned to lose it all. Let it all blow up in smoke and vanish before my eyes. I will perform great feats  of magic by showing you millions, then POOF, making it vanish into thin air as if that shit was aerated into the ozone.

In closing, I am full of money losing ideas and intend to make great use of them by converting hard currency into atmosphere.

Italy and Germany are sniping at one another again and ZNGA ipo’d and is a piece of shit. Just like post GRPN, shares of GSVC are selling off. It’s more of the same with buy the rumor, sell the news. This is not a ZNGA or a GRPN play, but a Twitter/Facebook play, which represents more than 30% of their fund. I will buy on dips, but not today.

The rally is being sold because no one knows what the fuck is going on. I will tell you, small pleb. Santa Claus is coming and you need to stop being a bitch. Panic all you want in 2012; but for now, man up and hold the line or else you will be dispatched like a fucked up Chinese burrito stock into a scathing Muddy Waters hit piece.

Tech is really strong today, but everything else is simply milquetoast. Frankly, I would not be surprised to see the entirety of the rally dissolve, like an alka seltzer tablet in an old man glass of water.  This market is disgraceful and Europe is shameful. There is nothing to like about Europe and I hope their governments are overthrown by fucking apes.

If you found this blog to be convoluted, odd, and somewhat distasteful, that’s because it is! More so, I don’t want to talk about the fucking market anymore and will be ignoring your questions for the remainder of the day.

NOTE: I will only be happy if the Dow closes +150.

Yes, everything is peachy this morning. European yields are sharply lower. Their equity markets are not down 3% and the Germans have only said once they weren’t interested in bailing out Europe. This is a big development, since the fucking Germans, generally, reject bailing out Europe at a minimum 5 times per day. So when the German central bank says “fuck you, you’re dead” just once, investors scale their towers and invade the castle.

Naturally, this sort of respite trading action pisses off perma-bears, like DAVID FABER and newly formed shit of bear, Le Cramer. They just can’t understand why stocks go up. It is foreign to them. HAHAHAHA: I just called Cramer a permabear, how absurd.

My stocks are up today, namely DECK, TNA and EXK. However, I’m not feeling overly confident and expect you fucking savages to try to attack me. So you know, “The Fly” sits atop a citadel with men throwing tar and grenades down below. Try to dodge my fucking grenades, cocksucker; the tar is sticky.

For months and months and months, Sam Poser (the same guy who just threw DECK under the bus by reducing his price target from $130 to an astonishing $72) pounded the table for CROX, the retarded rubber shoe maker.

Here’s what Sammy had to say:

September 19, 2011

Company Report

Footwear & Apparel

Crocs Inc. (NYSE: CROX)

Rating: Buy

Price: $28.28
Price Target: $40.00
Analysts: Sam Poser / Kenneth M. Stumphauzer, CFA /

Breadth of product line, improving distribution strategy, and numerous growth opportunities leave us very positive about current trends and the future

n Breadth and quality of product mix and growth opportunities are the key stories. We spent a few days last week with Jeff Lasher, CROX CFO, and came away quite confident that both our 2012 revenue and EBIT margin growth forecast will prove conservative. Based on many of our meetings, we believe that a large number of potential investors do not appreciate that only 9% (yes 9%) of Crocs revenue comes from the classic original Beach and Caymen clog styles. ~50% of the revenue does come from Clogs, but the best-selling new shoe in spring 2011 was the Translucent Adrina flat, which is about as far from a clog as one can get. Other recent additions to Crocs’ mix are the Chameleon, Golf, Sneaker, and Boot collections, all of which have very compelling new shoes that will continue to position the brand as an affordable comfort lifestyle brand.

n Global growth likely to continue in the double digits: In 2010 Americas, Europe and Asia represented 47%, 16%, and 36% of total revenue. 2012 YTD sales were up 25%, 46% and 36% in the Americas, Europe and Asia. Management said that international growth would outpace domestic growth for some time to come. Management said that the growth in the U.S. was going to be driven by an increase in door count at key large accounts, reestablishing relationships with major independent accounts and a broader mix of product in every channel of distribution. In the U.S. 50% of revenue comes from wholesale accounts, 50% of that wholesale business comes from independent retailers, and some key independents that cut back and or ceased Crocs business in 2008 are beginning to buy the shoes once again. Crocs appears to be in the process of looking for production facilities in Brazil (a country with material growth potential), which are needed due to duties of $12 per pair for shoes from China. The European business is driven primarily by Northern and Central Europe with little exposure thus far in troubled countries such as Spain and Greece. Asian sales are expected to continue to have rapid growth led by store growth of at least 15% in China, new customers in Japan and South Korea and new business in New Zealand.

n Strong margin and sales growth potential: At the analyst day earlier this year management put forth an EBIT margin goal of 15%, which will likely be achieved this year. Following our recent meetings with the CFO, we believe that management will put forth a 3- to 4-year plan next January at the ICR investor conference, and that the a high-teens margin goal will be put in place and will be primarily achieved through G&A leverage, on a plan for ongoing 20% plus annual revenue growth Crocs does have more GM expansion opportunities over time as the history from the backlog is gathered and educated decisions are made for speculative inventory for at-once sales. Remember that retailers are encouraged to place futures by being given a discount, and discounts are not given for A/O orders. In the short term, the reported backlog for spring ’12 on the 3Q11 earnings call will be a key data point. Given the new points of distribution and the strong new product, we would expect a backlog in excess of 35%. We are also comfortable with our 4Q11 GM estimate of 50% which is well below 1Q-3Q margins but 180bps above 4Q10 margin. We believe that management has learned from the mistakes of the past and are becoming well positioned for a strong future.

October 17, 2011

Company Report

Footwear & Apparel

Crocs Inc. (NYSE: CROX)

Rating: Buy

Price: $26.64
Price Target: $30.00
Analysts: Sam Poser / Kenneth M. Stumphauzer, CFA /

Early release of disappointing results due to disappointing retail sales. This is not 2007/2008 all over again. Lowering estimates and price target.

n Disappointing earnings and 4Q11 outlook: In a major surprise this evening, CROX lowered 3Q11 EPS guidance from $0.40 to $0.31-$0.33, and lowered revenue guidance from $280M to $273M-$275M. The revised EPS guidance reflects EBIT margin of ~13%, down ~300BPS from the original guidance but up ~90bps from 3Q10. The earnings miss was driven by light retail sales in North American outlets and kiosks that respectively had too little promotional product and could not effectively house new fall goods, and weaker than planned European retail sales. Retail sales have meaningful incremental margins, meaning that the modest top-line miss had a pronounced impact on the bottom line. The weak sales resulted in lower than planned penetration of the higher margin retail sales which was exacerbated by supporting some wholesale revenue with product that was slated to retail. Wholesale revenue exceeded the company’s expectation. In the press release and subsequent discussions with management, full financial details were not provided and will not be until the earnings call on October 27.

n Not 2007 but not pretty: Inventory levels are expected to be slightly down from $156M on a sequential basis, which means that inventory will likely be up around 7% and at most 9% on a year-over-year basis. Given that 3Q sales were up ~27% and 4Q11 has been guided to a low teens revenue increase versus our prior estimate for a 26% increase, inventory levels are well positioned.

n Strong wholesale backlog indicates strength into 2012: The backlog for the next 6 months is $297M (+30% y/y). We believe that 4Q backlog is up 18%-20% and 1Q12 is up 33%-35%. The company expects relative weakness in European markets, which surprised us as we thought that the small size of the business there would result in growth. Recent channel checks with major retailers indicate that sales of Crocs’ new styles remain strong and are accelerating and those retailers are planning Crocs up double digits in 2012. The planned increases will come through broader assortments and increased door counts as well.

n Lowering estimates and price target: We are lowering our 3Q11, 4Q11, FY11 and FY12 EPS estimates from $0.40, $0.15, $1.38, and $1.69 to $0.32, $0.05, $1.19, and $1.42. We are lowering our price target to $30 from $40. We still see strength in the overall brand and do not believe that the $5M miss is indicative of brand weakness. However, given the company’s history in 2007 and 2008, we would expect the stock to be in the penalty box in the near term. We do not believe the weakness in Europe is endemic of broader problems there. Rather, we believe that Crocs is having issues with its distributor partners which need resolution. Crocs’ senior management will be joining us at an event this weekend and we hope to get some more items clarified at that time. In the meantime we believe the weakness provides a buying opportunity.

The result?

Okay, Sammy got CROX wrong. No wait, he got his channel checks really, really wrong on CROX. But he’s been right on others, right? Let’s have a look.

SKX – Skechers USA Ltd. – Following management meetings and product review, we believe rewards outweigh the risks. Adjusting estimates
Skechers USA Ltd. (NYSE: SKX)
Rating: Buy

Current Price: $23.07
Price Target: $30.00

Oh fuck, more channel checks gone awry!

Maybe he had some good channel checks before?

SKX – Skechers USA Ltd. – We conclude, following meeting with management, that it’s not the end of the world as we know it. Lowering estimates and PT and retain Buy rating.
September 28, 2010 Company Report

Footwear & Apparel

Skechers USA Ltd. (NYSE: SKX)
Rating: Buy

Current Price: $22.71
Price Target: $38

Nah, he doesn’t know what the fuck he is talking about.

SKX – Skechers USA Ltd. – Following meeting with management we are more confident that opportunities abound to exceed our Street high estimates
Skechers USA Ltd.
SKX: $36.23 – Recommendation: BUY – Target Price: $40.00

Yeah, wrong again, just for shits and giggles.

“The Fly” reiterates his strong buy on DECK, price target $1 gagillion.

The fucking gorilla over at Sterne Agee ruined my day with his fucking ridiculous downgrade of DECK. May I be emphatic? How does this chimp get to a $72 price target from $130 based upon the Nordstrom website and weather trends? Women don’t give shit about the weather. They honey badger their way into Uggs boots in the summer, snow, rain–it doesn’t matter. He also cites an increase in sheepskin prices as a reason to sell. Well, FUCK YOU RUNNING SIDEWAYS, Sir. Women will buy that shit at $200 with same ferocity as they do at $180.

I will make you a bet, Sir. If the earnings are poor in February, I will give myself an Asshat Award. On the other hand, if DECK beats and guides up, based upon “honey badger” mentality amongst fashioned crazed women, I will mail you physical trophies of the Asshat Award for the rest of your natural life. You, Sir, will not escape the wrath of Le Fly, for he travels the globe with guillotine and mingles amongst pirates and operates space orbital cannons (SOC) from the back of his 1980’s stretch limousine.

Since the beginning of the day, my positions have increased in value, particularly LULU. Based upon the science of nature and all that is good on the earth and in space, I started a position in EXK. I beg you, dear foe, bet against me in EXK and I will see to it your kidneys removed from your person and you will wake up in a tub filled with ice, attached to a dialysis machine.

With Confidence and Fidelity,

Fly

I started a position in EXK. I intend to buy more.

Disclaimer: If you buy EXK because of this post, Sterne Agee will downgrade the stock based upon the weather trends in Vancouver. And, you may lose money.

Unlike Europe, our economy is improving. I am not hallucinating either. Frankly, this fade of the opening pop is the idiot trade and a trap. I declare with the utmost certainty, the dealers in magical arts are deceiving you. The sellers are over confident, buttressed by recent gains, ignorant to the jackal who awaits around the corner.

I sold out of REDF because it’s stupid Indian bullshit. I really need to reduce the number of positions I have, in exchange for potency. I will rally behind a few names and transform my lemons into sweet, delicious lemonade.

Pardon my brashness, for I am only a man with opinions. The rag dolls on CNBC chuckle over the current state of events. Unlike them, I understand what it feels like to be in this market. Unlike them, I have millions at stake here and I share your struggle. Having said that, my path is different from yours, as I endeavor to cut through the thick forest of uncertainty with a machete. Save yourself and wait until the path is cleared and the roads paved. While your potential fortunes may be less grande than that of my own, the likelihood of behind devoured whole by an anaconda will be nil. Find solace in safety of capital, especially during this festive time of the year.

All in all,  I believe we are close to an inflection point, where the scales of uncertainty tip once again from manic-panic to gluttonous greed. My best guess, the next sell off will be the last of 2011.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g4-d2i7ahtc

The fucking analyst at Sterne Agee today downgraded DECK this morning, based upon weather, Nordstrom’s website and the fucking price of Sheepskin. He deduced from all of this
“the mania is over” and reduced his price target from $130 to $72. He hedged his incredibly aggressive call saying he does not expect Q4 numbers to be affected. Instead, he is looking for fire and brimstone in 2012.

Fuck that shit. This is a classic average down situation, as the company doesn’t report until February. More so, if the fucking weather get a bit colder next week, all of the asshole analysts will come out of the wood works, suggesting the cold weather trends bode well for DECK. I am using this dip to add to my position by 1/3rd. I will add another 3rd if it gets into the low $80’s.

The market looks okay early on. However, I am not getting excited until the rivers of cocaine are flowing again. Until I see Rick Ross on CNBC, handing out bank notes to the women on the NYSE, this rally is suspect.

Fucking suspect I say!

Nevertheless, I am long and staying that way, focused on GSVC, REDF, RBCN and this cocksucking DECK (for now). I also like LULU, MDR, TNA and DVR.