I’ve been through the best bull markets and the worst bears throughout my career. I’ve enjoyed two frantic bubbles and multiple implosions. We are in the midst of what is going to be viewed upon as a renaissance for degenerate gamblers, people who could only make money when markets traded up–every–single–day. And it did.
Over the past month or so, I’ve been knocking the ball out of the park, through the building outside the stadium, and into people’s faces. Web traffic is meh, similar to the response I’ve gotten from people in real life. No one cares. If you are interested in the mystical world that is the stock market, you are in the minority.
The craziness of Europe and flash crashes, following the unbelievable stupidity that was 2008, has driven the retail client out of stocks. Most of the people that I know, who have a lot of money, are buying real estate again–not stocks. No one trusts the market because it is widely believed to be unfair and inequitable.
Look what they’re missing out on.
Fools.
“I pity the fool”
Let’s say you know someone like my old high school buddy, Tom. Tom is a smart guy but continually is afraid to get long; seems like it’s always going to be the time before the rug gets pulled out. He got long before the flash crash, as well as before some of the Euro nonsense, and suffered some losses each time. There’s always some reason, whether it’s a Schiller PE ratio, a key fib level overhead, the fear of a triple top, or whatever else, that makes it seem like now is a terrible time to suddenly go long.
For someone like him, would you tell him to start going long tomorrow? What percentage of his assets? Dude’s in 100% cash, pretty much, and has missed most of the rally. Besides heaping scorn upon him, what would the advice be?
I would tell Tom to go 100% in now.
Thanks; I’ll tell him. He’ll surely find some reason not to.
Fly – Even with tax day looming you would advise 100% equity for longer term horizon money?
He should get a ROTH IRA, max it out on contributions.
Same for his 401 if employer matches.
If he is not into researching stocks, buy a mix of high yielding dividend ETFs, that compound/reinvest monthly, go diverse, go global.
If the man is young he will be pleased in 20 yeears.
Cramer did a piece on Asset Managers tonight and his two favourites in this space was BLK and BX. They were both up in AH and they should both be up tomorrow.
Glenn Beck really thinks that this bull market is bad bad bad. lol. To bad he has to promote gold…… still…. he is not talking about gold so much now.
Dr. Fly, that photo of the Charging Bull with nobody around was an excellent selection.
What is the state of affairs now? The smart money is going all-in, and the dumb money…is staying dumb?
Perhaps all of this indicates a mid-term trading range, as the hedge-funds battle it out between themselves and the relentless robots of the algorithmic funds, all participants being indirectly influenced by the treacherous agents that oversee the massive position flows between the dark pools.
Meanwhile, far removed from the daily market’s maelstrom, those with a Buffett-like mindset will scheme and find more opportunities for acquisitions, since the low cost of debt and the excessive greed of the executives will make the merger deals irresistible. And as the acquisitions continue to pile on the market will keep bubbling up until the dumb money gets attracted to the big party that has already been in progress under their noses.
http://www.businessinsider.com/james-dinan-betting-against-jc-penney-2013-3
Jamie Dinan betting against JCP debt .. I know the hearing impaired Harvard grad .. incredibly smart … Ackman & his hubris is under huge stress on multiple fronts
100% PE expansion rally
I hope all your stops get filled without gaps
Your country is funding 7% of its GDP by borrowing – much of which from the Bernank printing coin
Good luck
But don’t expect this chimaera to be broadly supported