$FEYE IS THE VERY WORST COMPANY IN THE WORLD

I thought SALE was the worst company in the world, until FEYE came along. Apparently, they give cancer to people and then treat them with radiation that kills them almost instantly. They charge gigantic sums of money for this luxury and even have a funeral home business that encases your dead corpse, for a small fee.

At the FireEye funeral parlour, they secretly put cancer in the light bulbs, water and furniture, so that grieving visitors become clients. Once ill, you go to the FEYE HQ and they treat you with “life saving radiation therapy” for $10,000 per treatment. The only side effect is death.

Business is booming. However, people are wising up to their derelict ways and have begun to sell them short. Also, the lock-up period has expired, which is good news for all of the felons who own the stock. I am sure they will sell every single share over the next few weeks. Nothing will stop these savages from taking the money and running. Their cost basis is in the pennies and they couldn’t care less if their selling drove the shares back down to single digits.

After all, the company is a merchant in death. What did you expect?

I am playing probabilities. It’s the single best way to predict the market’s direction. If you can get the macro right, the micro is profoundly easier. I don’t know if WDAY, SPLK and FEYE have bottomed and will make me money over the next month or so. However, I do know my history. For example, I know the market hasn’t gone down more than 2% in March since 2001. In the month of April, the market hasn’t gone down more than 2% since 2002.

We’ve only had one down year for March since 2005 and I like my chances long here. Plain and simple, if I turn out to be wrong, I’d rather be wrong through an outlier event. The odds are forever in my favour. All I have to do is diversify my positions and make human sacrifices to the stock Gods, with the hopes that they grant me a few wins.

I am nothing but a humble servant of coin.

Now if we’re talking about fear, I am scared to death to be long May-June, which have been dreadful months for stocks in recent years.

Know your history, boy, and play your position wisely. With a little luck and a whole lot of money, we might end up making some coin from here until the end of April.

Then we can position defensively.

I increased my position by 40% on this morning’s dip in FEYE. It’s now my second largest position, with an average cost of $75.4

This is supposed to be the season for retail. Its been a tale of two cities at the mall, with weakness in department stores and specialty retail, with exception to KORS, ULTA and anything else that caters towards women. EL is interesting to me, as well as SBH. Restaurant stocks should start outperforming. It’s spring time, gents. Get your heads from out of your rear ends and go have a night out at the steakhouse.

I realize it’s counterintuitive to contemplate retail. But the thaw is here and stocks are cheap.

In the month of May we have ASCO. You want to be long cancer related biotech’s before then, preferably now until mid-April. If you wait until the beginning of the conference, it may be too late.

Into the summer months, look for natural gas producers to pump as much as they can to replace the reserves that were drawn down this winter. It’s going to be a monumental task and my guess there will be a constant bid in the price of natty until storage exceeds 4 trillion bcf.

Gold and silver suck again.

Oil is interesting here, ahead of the driving season.

I like tech stocks here, especially kick-ass companies getting sold down due to overblown fears of lock-up periods. Please. It’s a joke. I’ve been in this business for what feels like a thousand years and the fear mongering around IPOs is always the same: “when the lock up period expires, the stock is going to get smashed.”

Remember when YELP’s lock up expired and the shares ripped 20% on that day?

Always be humble, young prince, especially when you have that feeling of invincibility.

Here we go again.

My good pals over at Zerohedge have declared Armageddon in the form of Chinese currency collapse, due to the recent skid in the Yuan. While it’s true, leverage is leverage and if carry trade participants are in deep with the Chinese shadow banking system, the recent decline might prove to be somewhat eventful for them. I’d be remiss if I didn’t point out the larger picture here, which is the integrity of the currency itself, versus the dollar.

While it’s true, over a 1-6 month time frame the Yuan is weakening versus the dollar. Over a longer time frame, however,  you can see this is merely child’s play, a blip of sorts. I am saddened to learn some suckers are getting crushed in this Yuan carry trade unravel, just like I was heart-broken over the numerous Yen carry trade unravels that have taken place over the past decade. In the end, this trade goes nowhere, unless of course there are events beyond the Chinese control that turn this correction into a rout.

Pardon my calmness, but this isn’t a collapse. A move from $6.05 to $6.20 doesn’t even warrant  a headline.

As you were.

[youtube:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFwdSLINT8o 603 500]

The veil of secrecy has been lifted, if only for a brief moment or two.

Yellen sucks.

DEVELOPING…

You’re watching American television, with rabbit ears affixed, trying to glean some American culture from the novelas. You see people with iPhones and wonder what it’s like to own one. After a siesta and subsequent armed robbery, you head out to the market to see what’s for sale.

BEHOLD: The “iFON”!

What sort of iPhone is it? The clerk shoots back: “it is a Very Kool IFON, señor. Here, take a look. They make it in red now.” Suspicious of the new wares in the local market, you run to the cafe and ask the owner if you could use his computer to view the internet. After dialing up, you see that the Very Kool phone is indeed made in California. It is an authentic “iFON.”

All of you friends and wives are jealous of your new status, as an owner of a luxurious American product. They too run over to their bodegas to buy “the iFon”, with the hopes of being able to look like the rich people on the television. It worked! You are now rich and people respect you, as you walk down the barrio with a brand new “Very Kool” phone, painted cherry red, upon your elaborate ear.

NOTE: I added to my IFON position.

I have a few stocks that are just ridiculous, absolutely killing me. SALE and FEYE trade lower almost every single day. Technically, there are little reasons to own these stocks. They’re both in stiff downtrends and offer nothing but despair for longs. Their stories, however, are fantastic. Hence the cautionary tale of “don’t get caught up in the hype” applies here. I am guilty of this crime and have committed it on many occasions and will continue to commit this crime for as long as I live. I do not shy away from my emotions, as they have helped me invest with confidence for over two decades now.

The key for me now, regarding these two dogs, is knowing when to average down. Blame the decline on lock-up periods of interstellar activity. I just see them as getting cheaper, with a hard on to go even lower. I’ll average down when I’m good and ready and that’s all I’m gonna say about the matter.

Thanks to a number of green stocks on my screen, I am down just 0.37% today, buoyed by IFON and EGRX. But it’s a bad day. Make no mistake about it.

Forget about The Ukraine and their Russian friends for now. Today is about Yellen and the amount of cocaine she brings to the table. We all know what Bernanke did for us, lavishing us with copious amounts of “party powder” just for the hell of it.

Early going, things look promising. Futures are up and I see a plethora of momo stocks up in the pre-market.

I step into today a real man, a true man, long by 130% of my assets. During the recent “dip”, I took it upon myself to allocate funds into SPLK, FEYE, WDAY and IFON. I didn’t buy SALE, however, because it is a bastard.

It’s important that Janet bring her A-game today. Considering the mantra of the Federal Reserve, as an institution, I am convinced she will bring an extra large zip lock bag filled with South America’s finest; and I ain’t talking about coffee.