More Bubble Talk

I don’t know whether to mock all of this talk about being in another tech bubble or be scared of it. Truth be told, it’s a very subjective topic, as the market, in some form or another, is continuously in price discovery mode. Whether it be tech, housing, banks or biotech, the valuations of these hot or cold sectors wholly depend on the mood of investors–plain and simple.

So, if people start to believe we are in a tech bubble, guess what: we will pop said bubble and the valuations of once rich tech companies will be reduced to garbage cans. My opinion won’t matter, as the chorus of bearish investors will scream at the top of their lungs to get out of tech. We can harbor opinions as to where XYZ belongs and we can buy those shares as they appreciate or decline, hoping to time it perfectly. But we’re never gonna nail it right. Investing is a messy thing, especially when you’re trading around a lot.

What is FB and YELP worth? Are we to value them at similar metrics, or should the smaller company be valued higher due to a possible takeover premium?

Will Bill Ackman assist in the next social media hostile takeover?

The world has a lot of questions and I have very few answers, sadly enough. However, don’t that stop you fine folks in the comments section from relaying certain truths about investing: how it should be done and where stocks are heading in the immediate, intermediate and long term.

After six days of gains, it’s depressing, frankly, to see most of my stocks down $3. It’s repetitive and even boring to lose money in such wanton fashion. I guess I could sell a bunch of stuff and “lock in” a cool 23% loss. Or, maybe I can weather the storm and wait for earnings to be the true arbiter of price discovery. Either way, you’re only as good as your last thesis trade. Thus far, I am an abohhrent mess–but can still find the time in my day to track down each and every one of you little trollops and correct your misdeeds–so remember that.

All of yesterday’s hard fought gains have been wiped out in the first twenty minutes of trade.

We were treated to a worse than expected PMI number and then an atrocious set of housing numbers. Apparently, the recovery in housing has taken a back seat to a FULL FLEDGED DEBACLE in housing. This is all very fine and dandy. As the world turns, a barrage of egg yolk pies splash me in the face.

For the sake of arguing with all of you, dare I say, buy the dip? Well, if you’re not gonna buy the dip, perhaps you can at least think about it? Or, if you don’t want to think about it, maybe you could just jot it down on a scrap of paper and leave it on your desk somewhere?

Naturally, the Dow and the S&P are barely lower because they don’t build houses or manufacture stuff. All of our homes are built by high growth tech and biotech companies, now’er days. YELP and FEYE are huge in the California housing market and might need to lay off some workers into this downtick. Also, the fine folks at DATA must be up in arms over the PMI miss. I am sure their factory line workers will not appreciate the pink slips to come.

“You are actually permitted to trade on insider information.”

–“Montauk Bill” Ackman, 2014

Aren’t we lucky to have heroes like Montauk Bill Ackman out there, making money for the benefit of the charities he donates to? On this glorious wednesday morning, I am also very grateful to have men like Joe Kernan, shill, CNBC, asking such hard hitting questions regarding the Valeant-Allergan-Ackman deal.

You’d also be pleased to know that another publicly traded company has approached Bill to assist them in taking over their prey, in the most hostile of ways. But he’s focused on this deal now and told those bozos to get in the back of the line and to wait their turn.

So, just to recap:

If you manage more than 10 billion dollars and a CEO from a publicly traded company calls to tell you they are going to acquire XYZ for 75% higher from where the stock trades, not only are you permitted to buy as many call options as your heart desires, it’s also your God given right– as a leader in the financial world– to profit from this exchange of information because you “never quit” and could “exact positive change” at the company you are targeting.

However, if you’re a self-made woman who sells towels at Sears and cooks pumpkin’d pies around halloween for the teevee, should your fucking broker call you up and tell you he heard XYZ is going to report bad earnings, suggesting that you sell it, should you do that, you will go straight to prison for several years.

Any questions?

Now that the market is rebounding, I am looking at a few things to keep me 110% long, as I attempt to claw back from a 30% deficit.

1. Facebook’s earnings. I feel good about them and expect them to beat and guide up.

2. AMZN and Apple earnings. They aren’t very important for momo names, more for the general health of the economy.

3. Alibaba’s IPO.

Bar none, the most important of the three, for Wall Street upright walking pigs, is the latter. This is going to be the biggest tech ipo ever. It might fetch $200 billion. I put the chances of the market being uprooted, from now until then (possibly next week), at a stiff 0%.

Now that we know David Einhorn is short a “bubble basket” of stocks, it’s only apropos for them to rip tits to the upside with reckless abandon, no?

So many of you clowns are invested, mind you, in the ideology that we are at a top. Nothing other than price action is guiding you. You are unable to think for yourselves, objectively, as you fall victim to the stiff winds from the east. Watch the people on the teevee talk down today’s rally, the sixth consecutive up day following a ridiculous decline.

While you keep watching bonds, pondering why the world’s most manipulated market is misbehaving, stocks are rebounding. A lot of important hedge fund managers are short tech stocks here, working overtime to get them lower, by hook or crook. Their influence only goes as far as you allow it to go.

I made back nearly 3% today, down 19% for the year.

NOTE: Towards the end of the session, I added to both YELP and FEYE.

If these earnings reports come in better than expected, you are going to bear witness to an amazing short squeeze, one for the ages.

I was able to contain myself for about 30 minutes, until the shadows inside of my bathroom urinal, who speak with a distinct Edward G. Robinson accent, told me “to shut up, see, quit being a coward, right, and go buy some DATA.”

When I got back to my desk, I bought DATA.

Hence, a new horseman has been forged in the fires of hades, mixed in with a little piss and vinegar (pun intended).

In all seriousness, I feel extremely confident regarding DATA down here, especially heading into earnings. They’ve been smashing expectations to pieces.

I have made back almost 10% from the lows of last week. When staring at the abyss, all I could think about was how stupid I was for holding these four horsemen all the way down. Since the bounce, I sold half of my WDAY position and all of my SPLK. I added to YELP (sub $60) and have been very patient with FEYE. I even added a new position today: TWTR.

Part of me wants to go out there and buy PANW, DWRE, NOW, BLOX, YY, DDD, SCTY and all of the other stocks that have been hit. However, I remember the pain and earnings are right around the corner. Should we get some earnings short falls, we’ll be heading right back towards the lows, in no time at all. I believe FB will be a major earnings driver, as well as AMZN and CUDA.

My basis for YELP is $72.43 and FEYE is $65.74. I can add to both positions now; but that would be an emotional move, based upon a feeling of euphoria and not reason. The smart move here, for me, is to wait a little longer. I am not so much hoping for a decline in YELP or FEYE to justify buying more. On the contrary, if they both head lower again, that would be vey bearish for their recoveries. I’d rather buy into strength, knowing the earnings season is going well.

Ideally, I’d prefer to avoid all earnings calls. They make me sick to my stomach, the massive gap ups and downs based upon a single report. Think how stupid that is.

Understand that I am being rational right now, but that can change by the end of the day.

I sold out of my entire SPLK position, locking in a 16% loss. With the proceeds, I will either wait around for something cool to happen, or buy more YELP and FEYE.

The dastardly bears, the guys long FAZ, pestering me in the comments section and on Twitter, now find themselves in the ‘fag box‘, sort of drifting away into black space. Perhaps I am a bit pre-mature in saying this, on the sixth consecutive up day in the face of underwhelming negative news, but the bears are without legs. There never was an argument to take down my FEYE. It was simply an old tale, told millions of times before, all to do with “over-valuation” and stock market “bubbles”–things of that nature.

Now I know your kind– very overzealous in your actions. You possess a certain avarice for having it your way, almost making you jejune to the world around you. Rest assured, all of the plans that you had coming into today are awash with the blood from your peers.You belong to a weak clan, one that survives only by killing off old members and indoctrinating new ones with dark stories, poison, and of course the specter of fame and fortune.

It is extrardinarily arrogant and narcissistic to believe that a market near all-time highs is on the precipice of collapse, all because you said so. The world, apparently, doesn’t work according to your schedule.

A fool and his money shall be parted forever.

Bastard devils, I find myself up another 2% this morning, almost breaching the down 20% line, on my way back towards the light of winship, prosperity and the god damned American way.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WM1RChZk1EU

I started a small position in $TWTR. Long term holding in the making.