Cramer: The Market Needs a Perfect NFP Number Tomorrow, Else it’s the Apocalypse For Longs

The estimate is for 200,00 jobs added in the month of April. Should it come in hot, people will view that as a sign the Fed will have the runway to reduce the economy to tatters with a June rate hike. Understand something, the only reason why the Fed wants to hike rates is to destroy the economy, at least temporarily.

On the other hand, should the numbers come in too weak, people will view it as a sign that the wheels are truly coming off the chuck-wagon, supported by the large earnings shortfalls from a wide array of companies this quarter.

In other words, damned if you do, damned if you don’t scenarios looms in the immediate term.

Cramer’s take.

My best guess, as always, inexorably lower.

Guidance came in at expectations. But the company announced they’re going to delay the launch of their stupid aerial drone, ironically dubbed ‘Karma’, until the pagan holidays. This is a big blow, as the company was supposed to launch it this quarter.

As such, the stock is barreling lower, sinking into the oblivion of single digits, new and fresh all time lows.

Reports Q1 (Mar) loss of $0.63 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.04 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus of ($0.59); revenues fell 49.5% year/year to $183.5 mln vs the $169.55 mln Capital IQ Consensus.

Non-GAAP Gross Margin 33% (Guidance 35-37%)

GoPro has no further financial exposure remaining from purchase commitments and inventory related to our end-of-life HERO camera line.
According to NPD, GoPro’s first quarter combined digital camera/camcorder unit share in the U.S. increased 150 basis points year-over-year to 20.9%.
Co reaffirms guidance for FY16, sees FY16 revs of $1.35-1.50 bln vs. $1.36 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.

Thank the heavens Nick and his colleagues sold out of the stock when it was up around $75 in an offering. Otherwise, he might not be able to sail around in his yacht, enjoying the fruits of his perfidy, which has led the stock down 90% over the past 9 months.

The caesars in the NYC council just passed a bill that would tax shoppers a nickel per plastic bag. The theory for the tax is it will lead to a drop in plastic bag usage, which are evil beyond comprehension.

Officials from Washington, D.C., testified at a New York City Council hearing that their 5-cent bag fee, enacted in 2009, has led to a 60 percent drop in bag use.

Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg first proposed a plastic bag charge in 2008, but the idea failed to attract support from the City Council. The current bill was introduced in 2014 and has been amended to slash the per-bag fee from 10 cents to 5.

“Everyone knows that plastic bags are a problem,” said Councilman Brad Lander, a Brooklyn Democrat and bill sponsor. “They blow everywhere. They never biodegrade. They’re made of petroleum. And we don’t need them.”

This is a scheme to levy a tax, nothing more, nothing less. After all, the caesars have big plans with our money.

The bubble basket is back. You might brush away this earnings collapse as something inconsequential, a small footnote in a thick book of Wall Street stories. But, if you recall the tech collapse of 2014, one that utterly menaced yours truly, it all started with IMPV blowing the fuck up.

Well, don’t look now, but IMPV just blew the fuck up, off by 18% after offering truly horrid guidance.

Imperva beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 EPS in-line, revs below consensus; guides FY16 EPS above consensus, revs in-line (45.47 +0.20)
5/5/2016, 4:38:43 PM ET

Reports Q1 (Mar) loss of $0.25 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.03 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of ($0.28); revenues rose 33.5% year/year to $59.8 mln vs the $59.57 mln Capital IQ Consensus.

Co issues guidance for Q2, sees EPS of ($0.04) – ($0.02) vs. ($0.04) Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees Q2 revs of $65.5-66.5 mln vs. $70.21 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate. The company expects in the second quarter of 2016 non-GAAP gross margins of approximately 80%.
Co issues raised guidance for FY16, sees EPS of $0.23-0.29 from $0.17-0.23 vs. $0.21 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees FY16 revs of $304-307 mln from $302-307 mln vs. $305.31 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.

Shares of ENDP are lower by 18% in the after-hours after reporting a truly heinous quarter. ENDP is one of several stocks targeted by short sellers, along with MNK and VRX, for jacking up the prices of their drugs. As you can see by this quarter and guidance, pricing power has reversed and deflationary forces are taking hold.

• Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $1.08 per share, $0.04 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $1.04; revenues rose 34.9% year/year to $963.54 mln vs the $956.08 mln Capital IQ Consensus.
• Co lowers guidance for FY16, sees EPS of $4.50-4.80 (Prior $5.85-6.20) vs. $5.70 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees FY16 revs of $3.87-4.03 bln (Prior $4.32-4.52 bln) vs. $4.3 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.
• As of March 31, 2016, the Company had $222.0 million in unrestricted cash; net debt of approximately $8.6 billion and a net debt to pro forma adjusted EBITDA ratio of 4.61.
• Corporate strategy & business update:
  • Branded Pharmaceuticals commercial operations: Endo continues to prioritize its investment on key near-term growth opportunities: XIAFLEX® and BELBUCA™.
  • Branded Pharmaceuticals R&D Pipeline: Endo is also accelerating timelines for its XIAFLEX® R&D pipeline with plans to move at least five programs into clinical trials this year.
  • Generics manufacturing operations: As part of Endo’s ongoing Generics business integration and optimization efforts, the Company is announcing an accelerated restructuring of its Generics product and R&D portfolio, as well as its manufacturing facility network. This restructuring is expected to result in approximately $60 million in net run rate cost savings in 2017 and is expected to result in the closure of the Company’s facility in Charlotte, North Carolina, and a workforce reduction at its facility in Huntsville, Alabama.
  • Generics R&D: the Company reiterated its intention to launch approximately 30 products from its newly combined pipeline in 2016 and to file approximately 25 to 30 abbreviated new drug applications with U.S. Food and Drug Administration.
  • Corporate: Endo will focus on opportunities to continue to optimize its business, fund investment in new growth opportunities and to de-lever in the medium term.

Just when you thought Billy was back, crushing the month of April by 10%, reducing its losses to -18% for the year, Herbalife happens.

• First quarter 2016 adjusted¹ EPS of $1.36 per diluted share increased 5% compared to $1.29 per diluted share for the comparable prior year quarter. Reported EPS increased 22% to $1.12 per diluted share compared to $0.92 per diluted share for the comparable prior year quarter.
• First quarter 2016 reported net sales of $1.1 billion increased 1% and 11%, on an as reported and constant currency basis, respectively, compared to the prior year period.

• Volume points increased 4% in the first quarter 2016 compared to the first quarter 2015.
• Raises FY ’16 adjusted diluted EPS guidance to a range of $4.40 to $4.75; up from the previous range of $4.05 to $4.50

What’s interesting about the Herbalife quarter is their wanton success in China, ripping off the con-artists, who then go and rip off a sundry of people for personal profit. The whole pyramid scheme business plan is perfectly tailored for China, born liars, thieves, and criminals of the first magnitude.

“We’ve started the year by exceeding EPS guidance on both the top and bottom line and by returning to reported net sales growth, year over year, the first time in 5 quarters. Our updated guidance reflects the confidence that we have for the remainder of the year as we continue to hold the line on expenses while investing prudently towards the future.”

Johnson continued, “Our Members, through their growing and sustainable businesses, continue to engage with their customers on a much more personal level and are perfectly situated to be a leading part of the solution for many global health challenges facing the world today.”

HLF is higher by 12% in the after-hours, perplexing and depressing all of the lads swinging low at Pershing Square, whose billion dollar short position just got a little deeper.

Shares of FEYE are cratering after yet another earnings miss. This whole hacker nightmare, internet security narrative, is useless to the investment community. There’s nothing investable about it. There are so many so called experts in the space that pricing powers have waned and deflationary forces have taken hold.

FireEye sees Q2 $(0.40)-(0.38) vs ($0.36) Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees revs $178-$185 mln vs $193.25 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

FireEye sees FY16 $(1.27)-(1.20) vs ($1.25) Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees revs $780-810 mln vs $828.34 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

Shares of FEYE are lower by 6% in the after hours.

On the other hand, Greenlight Capital’s new pick, YELP, is ripping higher on an earnings beat. I haven’t frequented an eatery in well over 5 years without first using YELP to see the bad reviews.

Yelp sees FY16 revs $690-702 mln vs $690.95 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $93 million to $105 million

Yelp sees Q2 revs $167-171 mln vs $167.51 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $21 million to $25 million

Yelp is higher by 8% in the after hours.

After a week of discussions between the insane people who manage OPEC, one non-gulf state OPEC official blurted out ‘OPEC is dead’, just before stuffing his fat face with a falafel.

The Saudi position is clear. They will no longer target price action, since the dynamics of their monopoly has changed. Obviously, this is a shot across the American oil barrel bow. Instead, the House of Saud will focus on production levels and recapturing share, in order to bankrupt their enemies. Us.

“OPEC should recognize the fact that the market has gone through a structural change, as is evident by the market becoming more competitive rather than monopolistic,” al-Madi told his counterparts inside the meeting, according to sources familiar with the discussions.

“The market has evolved since the 2010-2014 period of high prices and the challenge for OPEC now, as well as for non-OPEC (producers), is to come to grips with recent market developments,” al-Madi said, according to the sources.

The House of Saud is becoming increasingly belligerent with its peer members of OPEC. They’re talking all sorts of nonsense in order to justify their walk down in the price of crude.

“The oil industry is, relatively speaking, not a growth industry any more,” said one of the sources familiar with the Saudi views inside the OPEC governors’ meeting.

In the past, low oil prices used to push global demand much higher but today’s rising efficiency of motor vehicles, new technology and environmental policies have put a lid on growth.

Despite record low prices in the past year, demand is not expected to grow by more than 1 million barrels per day in 2016, just one percent of global demand.

One thing is guaranteed: the kingdom will not go back to the old pattern of cutting output any time soon to support prices for the benefit of all producers, Saudi sources say.

“The bottom line is that there will be no free riders any more,” al-Madi said at Monday’s meeting. “Some OPEC members should ‘walk the talk’ first,” he told his colleagues.

Buyers of crude oil stocks beware. The House of Saud want to bankrupt you.

My opinion is that crude oil is going to undergo a very sharp pullback over the next 4 weeks. Seasonality factors do not favor commodities. Moreover, since the market runs on crude, I’d be remiss if I didn’t tell you the market was going to plummet in a most harrowing fashion alongside with it, in very short order.

Nevertheless, I’ve had my chance to profit from XLE and the timing was off. Because this was an Exodus inspired position, the time limit for it is 10 trading days. No exceptions. Sometimes the time limitations work against me. Other times, it helps instill discipline and is helpful. By the end of the day, I will no longer have a short position in XLE.

Twenty five percent of my assets are in TLT, with the other 75% in cash. I will wait to buy SPY, upon another systemwide oversold signal. Judging by this horrid market action, that might be sooner, rather than later.

We’re running free trials this week, through Sunday. When I saw “we”, naturally, I mean it in the most royal of senses. Get your Mother a free trial to Exodus this Mother’s day, you misers.

Well, well, well, what do we have here?

A massive wild fire, most likely set by one of those fuckheads in the big hats from Dallas, is spreading through the Fort McMurray area in Canada, which is also home to 17% of Canada’s oil production.

Isn’t that special? (extra Church Lady)

Although the fires aren’t even close to the facilities, just the idea that it’s around the region that produces over 1 million barrels of crude per day has people lighting their heads on fire to get directionally long crude contracts.

Fucking morons.

The entire city of Fort McMurray has been evacuated, all 88,000. Over 24,000 acres have been torched. People are describing it as an inferno, which happens to be out of fucking control, lunatic nuts.

“All our efforts to control and contain the fire were challenged by this extreme fire behavior,” Schmitte said. “Efforts were also hampered by smoke conditions. Basically fire behavior was beyond all control efforts.”

Basically, the fire has carte blanche to burn everything to the ground, including the wells. More than 1,600 structures have been destroyed and weather conditions have created a ‘tinder box’ scenario for the hundreds of very brave firemen, trying to douse or control the flames.

Crude is higher by more than 4% on this news.

Live Twitter FortMacFire wire.