Well Deserved Losses

My arrogance and sloppiness produced a loss of 1.59% today, a day which saw the Dow up more than 400 and the Nasdaq +80. All I had to do was buy and own good stocks, keep them, and wait for returns. But instead, as is always the case, I attempted to outsmart everyone else and position for a pivot — which is close to impossible to do on an overnight scale.

If I was truly attempting to seriously time a top — it would be a process that could take months. I’d have to dedicate myself to the thesis and average into positions in the hopes of a meaningless payoff.

Without being too wordy, the simple fact of the matter is — stocks are heading up. You can attempt to time tops and then enjoy drawdowns like me. OR, you can cave in, like me, and just go long and wait out the summer haze and hope for something of a frost to occur this fall.

I’ll just do a data dump of some of the top rated stocks here for various Stocklabs algos.

YTD
BLDR, NVDA, PHM, TPH, ELF, META, IAS, KBH, HUBS, VNT

3MO
VRT, TDC, RCL, BLDR, UPST, DFH, OC, IONQ, LZ, PHM

1MO
TTI, LZ, NE, NEX, NOG, CHX, HTGC, THO, FBP, LBRT

2 WEEKS
AROC, NOG, FBP, CPS, CVBF, LI, PARR, EDU, OVV, LZ

1 WEEK
FBP, MOD, VRT, CPS, LI, AROC, OVV, KALV, CNX, NMRK

Notice anything, you cunts?

I awoke to losses of 1.2% and then proceeded to fuck off. After many decades of chasing stocks and attempting to turn things around, I gave up and let the God’s punish me. I came back and my losses have increased to 1.68%, so I sold the losers. The natural thing to do is to trade like an organ grinder’s monkey — get all of my money back and then come back onto here to my adoring audience and tell them the news. Perhaps I could’ve done it while wearing a red fez and brocade shoes and gilt music box.

Instead, I think I’ll fuck off some more — enjoy my -5.5% losses for August and let the world do without my exquisite market genius for perhaps another day, or maybe even two.

Only oils did well the week which past. Those stocks jumped by 2% — but everything else was dropped into a crevasse. For the month of August, markets are down 3% — which is almost a lot considering the month is usually listless.

I’ll throw out some data via Stocklabs.

If you’re reconnoitering this market in search of treasure — take into consideration that we have, in previous bad summer trading, gone down by 5% before. That seems to be where it sticks the landing.

The losses were innumerable.

Is all lost? Shall we resort to hiding inside our basements or attics? According to the Stocklabs intelligence algos, we should be out there buying and quit being such pussies.

How can I blame the machines? All recent dips have been bought and to think “this time is different” takes courage.

So is it different?

The US 10yr is up above 4% and oil is crushing higher at $82 and gasoline is back to the highs, if that counts for anything. The CEO of PXD said we’ll be printing $100 WTI by Xmas. If so, the FOMC will remain hawkish and hike rates until people start committing suicide.

For me, this drop is an opportunity to get in on a new bear market early, perhaps. They have to begin somewhere. Should markets reverse higher, I’ll simply obey and not in a manner that I did on Friday, when I traded frantically in a flaccid attempt at recovering losses. I will most likely resort of buying stocks at or near 52 week highs and then supplementing those trades with day trades sought by using SL Alpha screener tools, which relays RT movements in all stocks down to a 30 second scale. The way I am able to bag so many day trades is using these tools.

I remain eternally bearish on stocks and look forward to the day when margin calls cut into the bulls like canister grape shot, taking off limbs along the way. The bull class of investor is a very weak and frail group of people and it won’t take much to frighten them back into their tranny penthouses.

It was my second most active trading session since I’ve made my portfolio public back in 2021.

This is what the market did today, way up and then all the way back down.

I had an especially vicious open due to an earnings miss with MTZ down 15% and a 20% weighted UVIX down 10%. I closed both positions out near session lows — not because I enjoy to sell at session lows — but because I lacked the eternal fortitude to hold. Part of my super-presence in the market stems from my malleability, neither hot or cold about anyone thing for too long. My caprices shift with the tide, in spite of my deep desires to see it burn. When things move against me, I tend to avoid conflict and move out of the way. You could argue this is a form of cowardice, not being able to hold firm. On the other hand, financial markets isn’t a battlefield — but instead a parlor where men of industry cavort and set prices for associates businesses. Ego, in my experience, will rack you with losses. At times, ego can and will make you extraordinary rich. I’ve tried almost every method since trading back in the early 90s and found that this method of chaotic shifting works best for me.

I conducted 139 trades today — not out of boredom or desperation — but an attempt to catch lightening in a bottle. There have been times I have done this and turned big down days around. Today was not that day.

Early on I kept hedges on and traded long. And then I towards the end of the day when markets were diving, I took a shot and went 50% short. The portfolio was jumping 10bps per minute and it wasn’t long before I realized I had missed the big move — so I closed most of the shorts out.

But because the market has truly reversed from what analysts said was a ‘Goldilocks’ jobs number, I reapplied some shorts at 30% of my portfolio and then built some longs around it.

I kept 25% cash and consider today a non-event in as far as expectations. When I wrote “done at 9:55” today — I didn’t mean I was done trading per se — but that my chances of reversing my doom was extremely limited to nil. I closed almost exactly where I opened, -3%. I tried my best to make it happen — but for every pop there was a drop and due to my lack of grit in keeping that UVIX position, which not only recovered the losses but went higher by 7% — I stand before you a profound and pathetic loser. Had I fucked off and went to exercise my knees — I’d been up today talking shit about how the American economic experiment since 1776 had ended and there was nothing that you or your stupid friends can do about it. Instead, I am 4% in the hole for August and now forced to trade my way out of a market that is apparently and inexorably unstable in both directions.

I’m finished for the session, more or less. I had taken some “highly correlated” positions into today and got blown the fuck out clean. My hedge was the devil itself via UVIX at 20% and I ordered an appetizer of LABD with it too.

I had an “earnings play” with a great stock MTZ which was Oppenheimer’d for -15% and then I had of course the UVIX down 10% and that’s all she wrote. I blew them all out, grabbed my nuts and took some SOXS and two other piece of shit stocks to pair wonderfully with this shit steak I’m eating and I’m fin.

I’m down 3% for the sesh and that’s pretty much my redline. If I invest heavily now I risk turning 3% into 5% — a blowout too great to be endured.

I’ve had plenty of days, such as this. They’re never enjoyable or nice and they always inhibit the way I see the market, for whatever reason. I go from seeing it perfect to not at all in a day.

Of course everything I’ve done today was wrong. Of course I sold UVIX at the session lows. That’s how it goes when you’re a fucking moron for the day and can’t do anything right.

The diagnosis for me, at least for today, is grim. I’ll need to concoct some real low beta portfolio by end of day for Monday, as now my task is to recover these losses in manner that doesn’t exascerbate them.

I’d like to be a brainless FOOL just like you — long and having fun — stuffing my fat fucking face with bars of chocolates. But with rates up here and talk of Bill Ackman crashing the US Treasury leaving no survivors, I closed with a NET SHORT BOOK filled with LABD and UVIX.

My deepest hope is for COLLAPSE — maybe 1-2,000 NASDAQ points lower; but I will settle for 300.

We have been in a very magnanimous tape and we’ve quite enjoyed the Grandeur of Pre- World War 3 heroism — but all things turn to dust and with the ashes of that dust you will choke and die.

Earnings in the AHs might delay my position of doom and if so I will be quick to give up on it.

CIAO.

I lost 4 pounds in the past week and this fact has seemed to greatly annoy Mrs. Fly. I didn’t know I was fat — until I got on the scale and saw I had gained 10lbs. I want you to also understand that fat to me is very thin for you oreo cake eaters out there. There are few things in life you can control — this is one of them. If, by chance, you find yourselves addicted to food — quit being a pussy and stop eating.

By September I will have reached my goals and then maintain my weight to conform with proper decorum. It’s important to abstain from things and to suffer. You can’t go throughout life being an insufferable hedonistic son of a bitch. Work hard and impose your will onto others, and then die.

I am very heavily long UVIX alongside many stocks neat 52 week highs. The goal here is to be long — but also at the same time hope for a full blown blowout of US equities, sending Bidenomics to the fucking trash bin. With the US 10yr at 4.2%, it seems we are on the verge of something extraordinary

My UVIX hedge helped me this morning to FEND OFF THOSE FUCKING LOSSES. I closed everything out and just own BTC and I am happy to be flat for the session. I see the market is attempting to move from left to right up — but I am not impressed, nor will I be fooled.

The US 10yr has completely busted loose +12bps to 4.19%, which means it’s really over this time. WTI is up 2% as the fucking catamites in DC bungle about attempting to defeat Russia inside Russia. The NYT reported that Ukraine has dropped NATO war tactics after losing 25,000 men in their recent offensive — basically taking human beings and tossing them into fortified positions without air cover and without enough ammunition.

It seems, the US is fighting both Ukraine and Russia and winning! But to be honest, it’s cowardly to inflict this sort of misery onto a people. I am sure the Ukrainians might prefer to actually live rather than die in a ditch.

The basic principals of Darwinism is at play here. You, as a smaller nation, do not fuck with a bigger one next to you. If you do, there will be kinetic ramifications. If you are unable to deal with those ramification YOURSELF and without the assistance of a pimp — you place your entire people in danger. They have placed all of Ukraine into mortal danger by attempting to suck American dicks in DC.

Back to markets, I might trade a little this afternoon to make some money — but I do not trust this tape — not with yields soaring like this.

Harrowing losses for the plebeian class of investor today — hammered into the ground and forced to attempt to dig out from their folly amidst noxious fumes. I will tell you this — at the open of trade I too had losses of greater than 1.2%. But unlike you, I had a large position in SQQQ and I sold all of my longs and kept my SQQQ and then proceeded to rip out trades all day to close FLAT for the session.

You have to understand, I am not trading to lose. I will win at all times, especially on down days. I am very happy we have real time portfolio management inside Stocklabs so I can show people how to comport oneself in a market, such as this. Sadly, like in all facets of life, people think they know more — can do better. You can only drag a horse to water. It has to be thirsty to drink.

I closed my SQQQ short and have a long book into tomorrow — but with a 10% UVIX hedge. I figure the market won’t go down for a second day in a row. Such blasphemy cannot be tolerated. BUT in the event it does, it’s very likely we’ll knife the fuck lower — providing an outsized move in the VIX.

I am in tightly correlated stocks to the general market, in order to avoid divergence.

Off to go exercise my fucking knees.