What’s the Fucking Bear Case Now Pal?

I’m sick of waiting around for something bad to happen. This market has gone through all of the worst case scenarios and nothing seems capable to place a hard dent into the faces of those longing stocks in size here. These people are unbelievable and will stop at nothing to get markets back to recourd highs.

I closed FLAT for the session — because anyone can make or lose money on any given day. Try closing flat pal.

I kept my SQQQ short out of sentiment — hoping and if I was religious I’d be praying for a great calamity to strike this evening to send equities lower.

I have friends in the business and they’re all very happy — making more money than me — gay and fat and slow — but making more money than me. I ask myself “do these people deserve to make all of that money?” Now, I am not jealous and really couldn’t care less if they have more money than me. BUT, do they deserve it is the question I grapple with. Some of these people are basically evil — definitely not deserving of winning on the scale they’re winning now.

So how do we stop them?

We basically cannot. There is nothing that stops these degenerates from making all cash offers on NYC apartments and beach homes in the Hamptons. The only thing that can stop them, from my vantage point, is a nuclear war. And then I ask myself “would you like to have a nuclear war in order to stop them?” After careful deliberation, I discard the question as null and void since nuclear bombs do not exist.

Along that train of thought, I am looking forward to Nolan’s Oppenheimer movie next month. It should make for a fine backdrop on the precipice of WW3.

My best sense here is for higher prices. We had a Stocklabs mean reversion oversold on Friday and lo and behold we ripped fucking tits today. I am sorry fellow bearsshitters — but it appears you’re about to get routed once again.

Happy trading day, Fucked Faces.

It appears we have a seasonal grift to deal with, in the way of the inevitable COLLAPSE we all crave. Look at the seasonal chicanery of the SPY in July.

All of this data, alongside much more, is available inside Stocklabs.

Because of this trend, as unfortunate as it is, I am mentally prepared to be very bullish. I might even pretend to enjoy it.

I am +33bps today, heavily hedged SHORT the QQQ’s — up only because I am a good trader and understand my limitations and capabilities. Into the close, I am hoping for a downside reversal and that’s not just wishful thinking. I am hoping I can piece meal sell my longs, at the same time retaining my shorts, and turn today into a very fine session for me.

I was introduced to the stock market during the crash of 1987. I remember looking at the Ny Daily News cover and was mesmerized by it and then was scared to death because a roach was crawling up my stomach. This was of course part and parcel of growing up in a crowded housing tenement, with mice and roaches running all about in search of bounty. Ever since that fond childhood moment I wanted the market to implode.

For a brief period, after I became a stockbroker in the late 90s, I wanted stocks to trade up. That was during the dot com era and I was a new broker without any money or know how to sell short. Naturally for my own good I wanted stocks to increase and so I kept buying and buying even after the market had blown up, taking me with it.

That was the last time I was fooled, tricked even. I was fully prepared and expecting the chicanery of 2008 and if you have time on your hands, you can search my archives here for proof.

Ever since the glory of 2008, I’ve been eagerly waiting for the bear to return, but this time to finish off western finance for good. I suppose HARD MONEY fools have their own gambit relating to their fetish with gold; but I don’t have any interest in fixing the economy.

I dream of a Mad Max dystopian hellscape whereby I can maraud about the countryside as a warlord, granting gifts upon the serfs living on my fiefdom. Whilst some of you might believe this is a pie in the sky delusion, I can assure you that there is a greater chance of it happening than say me winning the lotto and living happily ever after.

I only tell you this so you can understand my struggle, forced to buy stocks and pretend to like AAPL. It’s very hard for me and when markets drop a little, I have a tendency to get eager, as you could imagine — harkening back to the halcyon days of little Fly cavorting inside his housing tenement, learning about the 1987 stock market crash alongside his pet roach.

I got today wrong and lost 1.12%. In fairness to me, I wasn’t really trading much today and just sort of poked at the market without much thought. I do prefer to be backed into a corner and all of my recent successes called into question — permitting me to prove my worth once again. The very best version of myself is one that is miserable, in a slump, and grim.

The past two weeks I’ve been somewhat content — in spite of the leaders in my country attempting to drag American boys into a slavic conflict. To be clear once again for those reading: Fuck NATO and fuck the GLOBOHOMO and to hell with Ukraine. That said, I do not want the war to persist and would much prefer young boys over there had a chance to love and live than fight for the benefit of the homosexuals in DC.

I hedged at the end of the day via SQQQ and UVIX at 30% of assets, which is basically net short. I do believe the close was bad enough to warrant some sort of risk off, especially since we’ve recently gone up and up without much news and we are a nation filled with demons deserving of a much lower S&P 500.

Fuck — we’ll just have to take what we can. I have no shorts at the moment and rather enjoy this long oil trade. I will tell you my vision now.

By August of 2023 the war in Ukraine will be at its worst state for the pride parade folks in Brussels. Then it will dawn on people that perhaps this time Europe can and will freeze. The Russian gas will be in short supply and the odds of a nice and balmy winter is remote. This will cause a panic — as European catamites struggle to fill their inventory to prepare for the winter to come.

Gas and oil prices will soar, all the while people begin to worry about the SPECTER of another inflation scare. This will in fact zero bid stocks and most of the bulls you see now will be skinned alive and tossed carelessly into boiling vats of oil.

The trade will be SHORT EQUITIES, LONG OIL and we’ll all be better for it.

As for today, it appears markets don’t want to believe in my grim tales and have instead opted to invested in homosexual tech companies. My entire life has been filled with choosing between my passion and what’s the right thing to do. Once again, I must follow my brain and invest long — since the time isn’t right to jump ship and swing merrily in the fiery waters of vengeance.

The Russian saga ended without much bloodshed. If you look at it from a Warlord/Tsar point of view, everyone who was involved in the coup has to, at some point, be skinned alive OR participate in a suicidal mission for the state. The homos from SLAVA UKRAINE-TWITTER are elated because they believe the Wagner forces will “melt away” with weapons into the ether. This of course isn’t even a remote possibility. What is likely to occur is the Wagner people are going to spearhead another adventure deep into Ukrainian clay. They bob and weave from all of those HIMARS rockets and land themselves firmly inside Kiev.

Markets tricked me this morning and I’m now down 72bps. I haven’t been trading much — just sort of sitting around and waiting for the market to collapse.

Reasons for collapse?

Why bother? Let’s just wait for it to happen.

Our boy, best dictator of Europe, Lukashenko negotiated a deal with the PMC head to fuck off and instead of invading Moscow and killing Russians — he will now take his marauding band of pirates to “guard” the Belarussian-Polish border in exchange for guarantees.

This all strikes me as utterly ridiculous. Perhaps PMC Wagner will now invade Ukraine from the north. Or, even better, perhaps they’ll invade Poland and direct their violence into the heart of the GLOBOHOMO.

Either way, Putin looks weak after this. A true strong man would’ve drawn and quartered Prighozin in the Red Square and maybe massacred the entire PMC Wagner inside lion pits. Instead, they get to go back to doing the things they love best and the war drags on.

In connected news, Putin agreed to fire the Russian MOD heads, as per Prighozin’s demands — again another L for Vlad. In their place will likely be people more criminally minded, wholly intent on “bringing peace” through more war at a more rapid pace.

For insight into the beautiful mind of Luka, watch this clip.

Update on Russian coup:

PMC Wagner is about 2hrs south of Moscow. Putin is reported to have fled to St. Petersburg. There isn’t any military forced that can oppose the mercenary group of Wagner. This is an important thing to remember. This is a criminal recruited mercenary group that was used as cheap blood to fight Russia’s wars in order to obfuscate casualties.

There isn’t a scenario where the turnover of Putin’s government to Prigozhin can be viewed as a positive for market stability. While I do think it’s highly possible PMC Wagner was bought out by NATO to remove Putin, it’s also extremely possible that placing a band of actual murderers and rapists in charge of the largest nuclear arsenal in the world to be a bad mistake.

Best case scenario:

PMC takes over and calls an end to the Ukraine war. I am sure the west is more than willing to permit Russia to spiral into anarchy and genocide in order to win the Ukraine conflict. After Russia falls, so will Belarus and perhaps Chechnya. If this all works out without collateral damage to the west, the west might get its way in breaking up Russia into numerous provinces, effectively neutralizing the Russian state forever.

Worst case:

Putin views the loss of the Russian state as reason to conduct a scorched earth policy and will target western nations with his nuclear arsenal. A Russian civil war will most likely lead to much higher oil and food prices — perhaps causing a reintroduction of hyper inflation and higher rates in the west.

The only way Putin can get out of this is to totally massacre the Wagner forces attacking his administration. Anything short of that proves his weakness and Prigozhin might seize power, perhaps on a temporary basis, and eventually hand it back to someone who is friendly to him. Either way, a Prigozhin regime sounds like a scary Tom Clancy story made from nightmares.

I didn’t want to comment on this until I digested all of the facts. For many weeks or even a month or two PMC head Prigozhin has been publicly criticizing Russian command and more recently has been praising Ukrainian units and then yesterday he went as far as to say the premise for the Russian invasion was a lie and the casualties claims by Russia are actually 4x higher.

It all sounded like a great idea: PMC Wagner — hire a bunch of murderers to die for your cause in favor of ordinary law abiding citizens. Who would’ve thought that one day, perhaps, the head of this unit might want to seize power and declare himself Barbarian King?

I do not think this is a psyop. I am unsure as to whether the CIA bought out Prigozhin — but wouldn’t be surprised. Either way, the narrative out there now is Prigozhin is only going after Shoigu and Gerismov; but that’s bullshit and you know it. The way coups work is simple: appeal to the people and tell them you’re their friend. No one will get hurt and the coup leader is going to save the nation. This is all lies and what will end up happening is a purge and death and collapse.

The war is likely coming to an end if this coup gets going. Putin will be arrested and/or killed and Prigozhin will be the new King or perhaps the new kingmaker with an army of murderers and rapists.

You really have to sit back and revel at it all.

Can this escalate the war?

NO.

No matter what is happening here Putin looks weak. Is it possible Prigozhin is working on behalf of Putin to get rid of Shoigu and Gerismov? Maybe — but if so that means Putin is weak in Moscow.

Botton line: The war with Ukraine is creating a massive strain inside the Russian military and elite circles. This strain is the direct result of NATO support of Ukraine coupled with Russia’s empty threats to strike at Ukrainian leadership and western powers who are helping Ukraine against Russia. Unfortunately, the GLOBOHOMO appears to have won again. Prepare for another 100 years or Rainbow Flags and tranny brigades throwing pizza parties for your children, after they’ve transitioned to a neutral sex.

Lots of shit-talkers out there regarding their investment prowess. Lo and behold, when things go sideways — those fuckers always blow the fuck up. What is my distinct advantage?

I literally never ever ever blow up and never will blow up because, and this is a fact, I am a professional.

YTD, my gains are PINNED TO HIGHS — never been higher. This is what I am rolling with into Monday.

It’s important to me that you know your place, your role in the pecking order. Whilst you might manage more money than me and have an overall better life, wife and legacy — you will, and this is a fact, never be better than me.