Riding it Out

Yet again, the market gets bailed out by some sort of crazy Government plan. If you notice, the only time the market rallies is when the Government is intervening. Fucking socialists.

Coming into today’s trade, my cash position was too big. So, as a result, I put a small percentage of it to work. Now, I never try to time bottoms or tops. It is very likely I will be under water on much of the shit I buy or sell today. However, that’s why it’s important to buy in increments.

I expect the bulls will try to bring the market up, by the short hairs if need be. My perspective is vastly different from theirs.

I’m not looking to get cute. I will not buy a few bad stocks, in order to take advantage of a short lived rally. Since my bias is to the downside, where I deem all the risk remains, it’s nonsensical to go long. If I did that and lost a boatload of bullshit dollars, I would not be able to swallow it. It would eat away at me forever.

As you know, “The Fly” lives and dies by his convictions.

Ahead of next week’s rate cuts and brokerage earnings, anticipate a lot of volatility.

NOTE: With [[SRS]] reversing from $120 this morning, down to $111, I like my chances of a short term rebound here.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FMvTLHTIbwI 450 300]

I bought 1,000 [[SRS]] @ $112.50.

UPDATE: I bought 2,000 @ $113.

Disclaimer: If you buy SRS because of this post, your mailman will misplace your most important bills. And, you may lose money.

S&P just issued bullish commentary on the write off situation, saying “the end is in sight.” And, they declare most big banks will writedown more than what the actual losses will amount to be. They exclaim writedowns will top out around 275 billion, almost half of what [[UBS]] is projecting. As a result, the market just rallied 100 points.

My only beef is this: since when is S&P right about anything?

I mean, last time I checked, they were wrong about everything. If it was up to me, I’d have the executives of S&P, Moody’s and the other assholes from Fitch investigated for fraud, with regards to their relationships with the people they rate.

In short: S&P has no dice.

I bought 5,000 [[SMN]] @ $41.50.

UPDATE: I bought 5,000 @ $39.75.

Disclaimer: If you buy SMN because of this post, your bank will go bankrupt, effectively freezing your life savings. And, you may lose money.

“The Fly” has officially come out of retirement, with guns blazing of course.

First things first: a widely circulating rumor says “don’t do business with [[BSC]].” As a result, investors are acting as if there is a run on the bank, dropping the shares more than 7 bucks.

Good for them.

Secondly, I’m a big advocate of destroying the “ag plays.” Please, do not tell me the sector is cheap. It is flaming, out of control, expensive—flush with excesses. Every Joe with a series 7 has been buying [[MOS]], [[POT]] and [[MON]] for his clients. Therefore, I want to short them, crush his clients, then laugh on the way to the car dealership.

You guys just don’t get it. “The Fly” is an asshole, who happens to win all the time. You’re over there, sitting down in that bullshit pleather chair from [[SPLS]], while I’m bouncing empty Monster cans off my trader/servants head.

So here goes:

We have a full fledged run on the dollar. Short it, via [[UDN]]. Thank me later.

Also, gold will continue to melt up. Get long [[DGP]].

Finally, I feel as if it’s a little late to the [[SKF]] party. So, instead, get short [[DSL]] or [[FED]]. They both will go to zero.

And, let’s not forget to “milk the farmer,” via shorting his stocks—which include long [[SMN]], short MON, POT and MOS.

I sold short 2,000 [[MOS]] @ $103.63.

Disclaimer: If you sell short MOS because of this post, The Woodshedder Bottom will take a effect. And, you may lose money.

Developing…

Look for Japanese corporate hedges to trigger, as soon as yen/dollar hits $99. The dollar is going to get routed.

More on this later.

UPDATE: Lenny is coming out of retirement too!

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HFVM5pVTwkM 450 300]