Forget about the pending doom and prospects of another great depression for a moment. Let’s imagine the world was not in a perpetual spiral down to nothing and people/businesses were still interested in partaking in commerce, instead of just giving up and closing up shop.
What stocks have been hardest hit by the unwinding/going out of business sales by money managers?
Answer: commodities.
Let’s assume that massive deflation does not grip the Unites Steaks of America. The recession will hurt; but, eventually, asset prices will rise, mainly due to the Fed throwing freshly minted money at problems.
Things looks really bad now, as they did during the lows of 2002. I remember feeling a sense of hopelessness in the markets, with no chance for equity prices to rebound back then. My colleagues and I would make fun of the Nasdaq’s crash course, by comparing the levels to actual years on the calender, and what important shit happened during those years. We’d relish at the thought of the Nasdaq going back to “Roman Times.”
I made a living on bonds, preferred stocks and select regional banks, which for some reason outperformed back then.
Then, with the help of Greenspan cutting rates to nearly nothing, coupled with some stimulative tax policy, the market turned on a fucking dime and went straight up in 2003. I made several hundred percent on my money in ’03, getting long egregious quantities of semiconductor names.
This is the point:
The low percentage bet is to position for a total bust. It is so rare; one would have to be a fucking imbecilic moron to think it’s going to happen, no offense to ordinary morons.
The Government is reflating like a motherfucker and it is not hurting the dollar. Therefore, there is a distinct possibility the markets and economy can run and run hard, in anticipation of a late 2009 rally.
Just like in ’03, the markets will go higher, far before you read positive headlines, regarding the economy. There comes a point where the bad news is shrugged off and stocks run anyway, due to an increased level in investor confidence. It feeds upon itself.
In short, you want to get long the names/sectors that have been tossed aside by failed funds and distraught investors, such as oil, ag, tech and even some biotech.
My favorites, for now, are in the commodity sector.
Here is a list of the highest rated commodity plays, courtesy of “The PPT“:
TOTAL S.A. (ADR) (TOT: 52.67 +3.80%) 3.7
Chevron Corporation (CVX: 71.50 +2.11%) 3.68
Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM: 75.65 +1.06%) 3.47
Eni S.p.A. (ADR) (E: 42.83 +4.31%) 3.46
BP plc (ADR) (BP: 47.41 +1.91%) 3.45
ConocoPhillips (COP: 51.46 +3.56%) 3.29
Manitowoc Company, Inc. (MTW: 8.93 -15.03%) 3.59
AGCO Corporation (AG: 27.95 +4.21%) 3.45
Joy Global Inc. (JOYG: 23.98 -0.79%) 3.44
Precision Castparts Corp. (PCP: 58.82 +9.21%) 3.17
National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. (NOV: 27.34 +7.26%) 3.43
Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. (NGS: 11.89 +2.41%) 3.41
Baker Hughes Incorporated (BHI: 32.97 +5.98%) 3.24
Lufkin Industries, Inc. (LUFK: 46.38 +3.43%) 3.21
Smith International, Inc. (SII: 31.15 +4.67%) 3.17
FMC Corporation (FMC: 38.46 +8.49%) 3.36
The Dow Chemical Company (DOW: 24.94 -0.20%) 3.31
E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Company (DD: 31.02 +0.94%) 3.1
Syngenta AG (ADR) (SYT: 33.83 +2.67%) 3.25
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF: 53.79 -0.68%) 3.23
Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (USA) (POT: 74.76 +7.29%) 3.23
Terra Industries Inc. (TRA: 19.33 +5.57%) 3.17
The Mosaic Company (MOS: 31.56 +5.27%) 3.07
Sterlite Industries India Limited (ADR) (SLT: 5.01 +3.30%) 3.3
EnCana Corporation (USA) (ECA: 46.24 +5.79%) 3.63
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY: 50.92 +2.45%) 3.54
Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation (COG: 28.49 +3.90%) 3.4
Questar Corporation (STR: 28.77 +0.66%) 3.34
CNOOC Limited (ADR) (CEO: 65.39 +3.22%) 3.28
Devon Energy Corporation (DVN: 73.21 +4.24%) 3.11
Apache Corporation (APA: 74.28 +3.24%) 3.08
Alcoa Inc. (AA: 10.58 -1.86%) 3.34
Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR: 46.35 +3.23%) 3.32
Imperial Oil Limited (USA) (IMO: 32.17 +3.77%) 3.28
Hess Corp. (HES: 53.25 +5.42%) 3.08
Sasol Limited (ADR) (SSL: 25.71 +3.34%) 3.01
ENSCO International Incorporated (ESV: 37.99 +0.58%) 3.61
Noble Corporation (NE: 28.72 +5.12%) 3.5
StatoilHydro ASA (ADR) (STO: 18.42 +5.02%) 3.34
Diamond Offshore Drilling, Inc. (DO: 81.93 +7.44%) 3.21
Gulf Island Fabrication, Inc. (GIFI: 17.66 +0.11%) 3.15
Petroleo Brasileiro SA (ADR) (PBR: 22.80 +1.33%) 3.15
Unit Corporation (UNT: 33.00 +5.26%) 3.15
Helmerich & Payne, Inc. (HP: 29.37 +4.71%) 3.04
Pride International, Inc. (PDE: 15.58 +3.04%) 3.04
BHP Billiton Limited (ADR) (BHP: 35.50 +4.84%) 3.59
Yanzhou Coal Mining Co. (ADR) (YZC: 4.93 +0.61%) 3.33
Teck Cominco Limited (USA) (TCK: 9.80 +6.75%) 3.13
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