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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

I Took Profits, What Did You Do?

Don’t give me the horse shit about taking profits. I know my bias is bullish. That is not going to stop me from preparing for an exogenous event, such as “The Fly” being wrong.

I sold off a variety of names, with exception to the homos at [[M]] and National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] . At least for now, they are keepers. But, it would be asinine not to take some coin off the table on The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] , [[ROM]] , [[DIG]] , [[UYG]] or [[EEM]] , after their 30% jumps.

I see oil is trading off here, due to gay oil traders. On that news, I want to stay on the sidelines, smoking a large Cuban, while throwing water at people down below in the street.

I have a new watch/buy list, directly from The PPT. I need you to understand something: “The PPT,” despite what your opinions may be, is a fucking God send for me. I put all I know into this little analytic engine and it is saving me hours upon hours of research time. With the extra time, I am able to do all sorts of egregious shit, such as throw empty coffee cups on my neighbors lawn, throw jumping jacks at piker brokers on Wall Street and draw mustaches on the ugly man who dons my $100 bills.

In short, I think it makes sense to take some profits, but avoid going short. The bias is still up. Moreover, do not be surprised to see this market hit 10,000 by turkey day.

NOTE: My cash levels are now north of 50%.

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Fuck You Bears, You’re Dead

Ultimately, the market is just a compilation of temporary feelings/ideas. I may have a bullish stance now; but that can change with any new data that paints a decidedly bad future. As an investor, it is important to have convictions. But, it is more important to avoid getting killed by them.

Do not let your stubbornness wipe out your bullshit accounts. Keep in mind, no matter how cool you may think you are or how nifty your trading system is: you are subject to error. You will be wrong. Do not let a few little mistakes put you on the street, in a very bad homeless situation.

With that being said, “The Fly” intends to spend his day pushing idiots filled with hubris into murder holes, as the market melts their fucking faces off with florescent pink blow torches. I have no feelings for these people, one way or another. I just toss them aside, into pits filled with snapping alligators, whenever they get within 5 feet of my shadow.

With my money, believe it or not, I may take some profits today. My gains will be north of 60%, after this mornings push higher. And, I feel like getting small.

Still, I will keep the majority of my positions. Moreover, I may even buy some new shit, via The PPT. Nonetheless, sometimes it’s important to claim victory, book profits, then reevaluate where money can be best allocated.

In my opinion, without a doubt, the long side is where you need to be right now.

UPDATE: I took profits on The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] , selling 3/4ths of my positions, north of $36.5

UPDATE II: I sold all of my [[EEM]] position, north of $24.5, all of my [[ROM]] position, north of $28.5 and all of my [[DIG]] position, north of $33.5

UPDATE III: I sold 25% of my [[UYG]] position, north of $9.25.

NOTE: I wanted to rebuild my cash levels to a robust level and I have accomplished just that. I am done selling for the day. Year to date, I am up moreĀ  than 63%. I will spend the cash on a dip.

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A Southern Fact

All southern men eat bbq ribs, while driving to work every morning, and cast aside the cleaned bones onto busy, hillbilly infested freeways.

UPDATE: Via The PPT, here are the top 10 rated ETF’s, based upon technicals (note: some of these are low volume fuckers):

[[SHV]] 3.75

[[REA]] 3.67

[[PTD]] 3.65

[[AAXJ]] 3.6

[[JO]] 3.47

[[OLO]] 3.4

[[FXY]] 3.2

[[FBT]] 3.15

[[PRFS]] 3.15

[[BBH]] 3.1

The top rated inverse ETF is [[SSG]] , at 3.05.

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Arrest Them All!

Great day for the bears in burlap shirts.

Let me tell you, there is some fuckery going on in this market, with funds manipulating the tape, everyday, 10 minutes to the close. What kind of shit is this?

There is no way everyone decided to sell off of the benign news out of General Electric Company [[GE]] . The SEC is a piece of shit and they are too busy sucking the cocks of our political leaders, than pay attention to what is going on in the trenches. Assholes, your fucking market is broken. This is not the way equity markets are supposed to work, unless of course you are trading in Africa.

Mid-day, I was up more than 10%, but due to the late day robbery; I ended up 3.45%. All of the gains in [[UYG]] gone. Poof!

Normally I’d say this is terrible news for bulls. But, I am telling you now, that was not real. It was a bunch of homos, probably hanging out in the perfume section at Macy’s, driving stocks lower, in order to save themselves from further redemptions.

I want these faggots arrested and throw into a Vietnamese pit filled with alligators.

Top picks: National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] , The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] and [[UYG]] . Fuck you.

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Not Baked In

The 50 basis point cut by the lunatics at the Federal Reserve is daring inflation to come back. The Fed is spitting in the face of those who drill for oil or make potash.

If history has taught us anything, it is that they (The Fed) are always wrong.

I am not an inflation hawk. As a point in fact, I chuckle, not laugh, at those who think the U.S. is in some sort of weird inflation era.

Wrong.

But, at the same time, the deflation ghouls have overshot to the downside, via pecking away at commodities and their related equities.

So, into this orgy of free money, I want to stay long the names that have been cast aside by margin players, at least for awhile.

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. [[CF]] , The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] , Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (USA) [[POT]] , Agrium Inc. (USA) [[AGU]] , National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] , Transocean Inc. [[RIG]] and Arch Coal, Inc. [[ACI]] all look attractive.

Following an 11% day, don’t be stupid and buy big here. Wait for a pullback, as much as 5%, then consider taking a position.

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Time to Kill Some Bears

These grotesquely deformed men are sweating in their burlap shirts, as the market slowly melts higher. What scares them is the “fuck you, you’re dead” move in commodity stocks.

As you know, people who short stocks, after the market craters 25%, are well deserving of having all of their coin taken from them. These people are worthy of insult to injury afflictions too. May their brokerage accounts go to zero and their bullshit bachelor pads be burglarized, all in the same day.

With the Fed meeting ahead, I would not want to be short equities. The text book says, we rally until the the monstrous faces of bearshitters are ripped off with old pick axes.

Also, brave men, like Vince Farrell, are calling bottoms on CNBC. This, as you know, is an excellent omen.

With my money, I am buying small lots of [[UYM]] and [[EEM]] . My cash position is still north of 20% and my gains are extraordinarily bountiful.

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It Feels Like ’02

Forget about the pending doom and prospects of another great depression for a moment. Let’s imagine the world was not in a perpetual spiral down to nothing and people/businesses were still interested in partaking in commerce, instead of just giving up and closing up shop.

What stocks have been hardest hit by the unwinding/going out of business sales by money managers?

Answer: commodities.

Let’s assume that massive deflation does not grip the Unites Steaks of America. The recession will hurt; but, eventually, asset prices will rise, mainly due to the Fed throwing freshly minted money at problems.

Things looks really bad now, as they did during the lows of 2002. I remember feeling a sense of hopelessness in the markets, with no chance for equity prices to rebound back then. My colleagues and I would make fun of the Nasdaq’s crash course, by comparing the levels to actual years on the calender, and what important shit happened during those years. We’d relish at the thought of the Nasdaq going back to “Roman Times.”

I made a living on bonds, preferred stocks and select regional banks, which for some reason outperformed back then.

Then, with the help of Greenspan cutting rates to nearly nothing, coupled with some stimulative tax policy, the market turned on a fucking dime and went straight up in 2003. I made several hundred percent on my money in ’03, getting long egregious quantities of semiconductor names.

This is the point:

The low percentage bet is to position for a total bust. It is so rare; one would have to be a fucking imbecilic moron to think it’s going to happen, no offense to ordinary morons.

The Government is reflating like a motherfucker and it is not hurting the dollar. Therefore, there is a distinct possibility the markets and economy can run and run hard, in anticipation of a late 2009 rally.

Just like in ’03, the markets will go higher, far before you read positive headlines, regarding the economy. There comes a point where the bad news is shrugged off and stocks run anyway, due to an increased level in investor confidence. It feeds upon itself.

In short, you want to get long the names/sectors that have been tossed aside by failed funds and distraught investors, such as oil, ag, tech and even some biotech.

My favorites, for now, are in the commodity sector.

Here is a list of the highest rated commodity plays, courtesy of “The PPT“:

TOTAL S.A. (ADR) (TOT: 52.67 +3.80%) 3.7
Chevron Corporation (CVX: 71.50 +2.11%) 3.68
Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM: 75.65 +1.06%) 3.47
Eni S.p.A. (ADR) (E: 42.83 +4.31%) 3.46
BP plc (ADR) (BP: 47.41 +1.91%) 3.45
ConocoPhillips (COP: 51.46 +3.56%) 3.29
Manitowoc Company, Inc. (MTW: 8.93 -15.03%) 3.59
AGCO Corporation (AG: 27.95 +4.21%) 3.45
Joy Global Inc. (JOYG: 23.98 -0.79%) 3.44
Precision Castparts Corp. (PCP: 58.82 +9.21%) 3.17
National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. (NOV: 27.34 +7.26%) 3.43
Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. (NGS: 11.89 +2.41%) 3.41
Baker Hughes Incorporated (BHI: 32.97 +5.98%) 3.24
Lufkin Industries, Inc. (LUFK: 46.38 +3.43%) 3.21
Smith International, Inc. (SII: 31.15 +4.67%) 3.17
FMC Corporation (FMC: 38.46 +8.49%) 3.36
The Dow Chemical Company (DOW: 24.94 -0.20%) 3.31
E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Company (DD: 31.02 +0.94%) 3.1
Syngenta AG (ADR) (SYT: 33.83 +2.67%) 3.25
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF: 53.79 -0.68%) 3.23
Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (USA) (POT: 74.76 +7.29%) 3.23
Terra Industries Inc. (TRA: 19.33 +5.57%) 3.17
The Mosaic Company (MOS: 31.56 +5.27%) 3.07
Sterlite Industries India Limited (ADR) (SLT: 5.01 +3.30%) 3.3
EnCana Corporation (USA) (ECA: 46.24 +5.79%) 3.63
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY: 50.92 +2.45%) 3.54
Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation (COG: 28.49 +3.90%) 3.4
Questar Corporation (STR: 28.77 +0.66%) 3.34
CNOOC Limited (ADR) (CEO: 65.39 +3.22%) 3.28
Devon Energy Corporation (DVN: 73.21 +4.24%) 3.11
Apache Corporation (APA: 74.28 +3.24%) 3.08
Alcoa Inc. (AA: 10.58 -1.86%) 3.34
Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR: 46.35 +3.23%) 3.32
Imperial Oil Limited (USA) (IMO: 32.17 +3.77%) 3.28
Hess Corp. (HES: 53.25 +5.42%) 3.08
Sasol Limited (ADR) (SSL: 25.71 +3.34%) 3.01
ENSCO International Incorporated (ESV: 37.99 +0.58%) 3.61
Noble Corporation (NE: 28.72 +5.12%) 3.5
StatoilHydro ASA (ADR) (STO: 18.42 +5.02%) 3.34
Diamond Offshore Drilling, Inc. (DO: 81.93 +7.44%) 3.21
Gulf Island Fabrication, Inc. (GIFI: 17.66 +0.11%) 3.15
Petroleo Brasileiro SA (ADR) (PBR: 22.80 +1.33%) 3.15
Unit Corporation (UNT: 33.00 +5.26%) 3.15
Helmerich & Payne, Inc. (HP: 29.37 +4.71%) 3.04
Pride International, Inc. (PDE: 15.58 +3.04%) 3.04
BHP Billiton Limited (ADR) (BHP: 35.50 +4.84%) 3.59
Yanzhou Coal Mining Co. (ADR) (YZC: 4.93 +0.61%) 3.33
Teck Cominco Limited (USA) (TCK: 9.80 +6.75%) 3.13

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