Charlie Gasparino is stoking the flames of uncertainty, revealing a “secret meeting” that was hosted at Goldman Sachs, following Geithner’s idiotic speech.
Look, President Obama is conducting himself with disgrace. His lack of readiness and savvy is showing in spades and as a result Wall Street is fearful. Despite strength in select infrastructure plays, for the most part, stocks are in full retreat today, thanks in large part to the lack of leadership at the White House.
Banks and commercial Re are leading the market lower, with oil, essentially, getting a pass.
If you are short and up big, remember to use this sell off to take profits. You don’t have to switch to the long side. However, you should be covering some shorts, in order to raise cash.
If you are long and dying, you should take on some hedges. Personally, I like short oil here, via DUG or ERY. And, select commercial Re stocks, like FRT, ESS, MAC and SLG can be sold short with impunity.
Into this bullshit, I bought some EEV. No real reason, just a hunch.
My downside exposure is not horrific, considering I am nearly 50% short or in cash. Believe me, I am tempted to take all of my cash and get long egregious amounts of SRS and FAZ. But, the voices in my head keep telling me “asshole, go eat a fucking sandwich, ova here.”
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fig
It’s not secret anymore is it? I’m starting to intensely dislike Charlie G. I’m very suspicious that Goldman has a hidden reason (something they want to sell that’s on their book) to let this rumor out through Charlie. Remember Goldman’s call of oil’s going to 200? Oh yeah, they didn’t say which year, right?
I listen to the voices in my head but that often gets me in trouble. I think you take the double negative of the voices then divide it by 2 and times it by 3 and see if it comes up positive or negative. Positive get long, negative go eat a sandwich.
Zombie requires two hours to watch 60 Minutes.
Fly,
It might do you good to buy coupla S&P puts for a vlack swan event. You don’t want this fuckery to wipe out your ytd gains
“If you are short and up big, remember to use this sell off to take profits. You don’t have to switch to the long side. However, you should be covering some shorts, in order to raise cash.”
R u kidding ? Its like covering your shorts on September 15 2008. There is more downside to come. Times like this you gotta press your shorts. We break here and Dow 7000 is next. Then 6000. Who knows it could be 5000 before you know it.
FLY not inexperience, but subterfuge and confusion….just like the last administration….same hydra different head…
I want to cover some shorts, Señor Fly. I really do. But the raging bear in my wont let me close a single short position until the DOW approaches 6k.
I think I’ve contracted a serious case of Devildog-itis. 😉
I am looking to cover some shorts eventualy and looking at .VXO for guidance. Still under 45. I would like to see 60 to cover and above 70 to go long. Of course it would be an easy call to see VXO above 60 with 400 poinds down on the dow. Than again that would be to easy!
We need more cowbell!
Wayyy too much bearishness here…time to turn things around. Grab your balls or grab your ankles.
Instead of a fucking sandwich, try smoked turkey breast and mayonnaise on honey wheat bread.
Fly,
i thought you had written off using these leveraged inverse ETFs to get short.. and were just going to sell the underlyings.. change your mind i guess ?
SRS is one shitty proxy for short Comm RE, in my semi humble opinion.
i manage client money in both IRAs and taxables, and treat every acct the same. would love to short VNO, IYR, etc. but SRS is all i’ve got to work with in current business model, and it annoys the shit out of me.
FWIW i run individual accounts but treat it as a fund. clients get custodied accounts not partnership interests, full transparency, etc.
Contractor
I answered your question in the previous post. I was writing it as this new one was being posted.
_____________________
SRS has made me a lot of money the past couple of days. They (2/3x ETF’s) are great ‘day plays’ to add to your strategy.
.
CAP
Trade without hubris young pleb.
The Fly is bobbing and weaving like a Jedi Knight on steroids.
Sure there won’t be a Friday the 13th Valentine’s massacre?
The function of government is to pretend to fail. Reinhardt!!!
R u kidding ? Its like covering your shorts on September 15 2008. There is more downside to come. Times like this you gotta press your shorts. We break here and Dow 7000 is next. Then 6000. Who knows it could be 5000 before you know it.
Who remembers when CAP was a raging asstard bull?
I do. November ’07.
_________
goldman is definitely hiding something boca
paying back the help…?
gimme a fucking break…talk about a PR move
those fags are sitting around reading “The Partnership”and playing Jenga
Vix is going haywire! – 1/2 point then + 1/2 point…proceed with cation.
Cap,
You’re absolutely right. Everything is lined up right now for this market to get tag-teamed by lewd elves.
1) Disillusionment with bailout
2) Descending triangle on SP-500
3) Last strong stock (XOM) breaking down
4) One of the horsemen falling into a ditch (RIMM) 2 days ago after leading tech strength in recent months
I wouldn’t dream of covering. If anything, I’m adding to my shorts by hitting laggards who havent yet crumbled (initiated an AAPL short today on strength based on RIMM’s fucked state of affairs and got short CPKI).
Thunderpup,
There will only be a 2nd version of The long night of the Knives……
Himmler!!!
Business council reports 32% of respondents considering M&A. You bears better take that sort of data into consideration.
Karen TSO is hot, Jake.
Who remembers when CAP was a raging asstard bull?
I do. November ‘07.
Jake I converted to a Bear in December 07. Though I still play the long side here and there like July 08. I got screwed in October 08 when I got too long after we had that 900 point up day. Right now the action feels like September 08. We are just churning here and it feels like a HUGE drop is coming.
Chips like LRCX,BRCM,ALTR,NSM are up but INTC,TXN,AMAT are down so it’s a tie.
Off to Gainesville to see the kid play a college golf tournament (Gator Invit.) for a few days.
Happy trading.
I do Jake. On that note, I may snap up a few more longs.
The fly is a fuckstick, Go short the S&P will be at 600 in no time. Bill Miller is the shit
Artist-
Never catch a falling long knife, or a failing EDUcation, and beware the 7 ate 9.
I shorted some AAPL here . I went to an AAPL store on Saturday evening and it was empty. No really. I was the only person there other than the employees. Who the fuck is going to buy a $2000 laptop in this environment ? Short AAPL to $50.
So, Wall Street thieves/scumbags don’t like Geithner’s “plan”? I don’t like “Turbo” Tim and “more of the same” Obama admin, but think about it, what Wall Street doesn’t like may not necessarily be bad for the country. These bastards used to love Greenspan, and looks at what has happened to this country.
Looking at a chart and seeing we are walking a plank, a VIX of 45 seems quite odd.
someone just got Schlabendorfed.
STI and COF just hitting new lows.
Fly, have the IT people remove this annoying “your posting comments too quickly, slow down” crap from this software…… it is really unnecessary.
All those mutual fund managers like Bill Miller, you know the type’s that have those looks on their face like they need to take a massive shit but can’t due to hemorrhoids or some other ailment that affects their ability to defecate. Yes those mutual fund managers are going to be dumping massive amounts of stock. There is no way this bitch of a market is going up. We won’t see the other side of Dow 8000 for a while.
I’m going Full tard long FAS and TNA
Somebody pull Greenspan’s asshat down off the peg. He wants to wear it again for a while.
To paraphrase, only slightly unfairly: “My job was to make Congress happy. I could have done something to prevent the mortgage crisis, but nobody would have wanted me to do it, because it would have prevented the housing bubble.”
While Mr. Greenspan acknowledges that he could have done something to avert the housing crisis, he contends his hands were tied.
“If we tried to suppress the expansion of the subprime market, do you think that would have gone over very well with the Congress?” Mr. Greenspan said. “When it looked as though we were dealing with a major increase in home ownership, which is of unquestioned value to this society — would we have been able to do that? I doubt it.”
Mr. Greenspan said that if he had taken steps to prevent the crisis, the outcome would have been painful.
“We could have basically clamped down on the American economy, generated a 10 percent unemployment rate,” he said. “And I will guarantee we would not have had a housing boom, a stock market boom or indeed a particularly good economy either.”
http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/02/12/greenspan-says-he-was-mystified-by-subprime-market/
Update: CalculatedRisk has a link to some info about the Merrill Lynch bonuses. Whatever PR campaign GS might want to wage against either the stimulus plan or the BARF (formerly TARP) package, the bonuses put a strong weapon in the hands of GS’s opponents.
4fl3x,
That’s precisely why being short right now is so golden. The VIX isn’t igniting. The sell-off is occuring without panic or capitulation. When volatilty starts to spike, then, yes, it’ll be time to take some shorts off. But it’s not happening. The market is filled with dip-buyers right now.
Did I think the road to retirement was an expressway??..No, its a Navajo trail of tears mofo!
Good point, Phil.
Staying short here.
Jed has a smelly cunt.
Phil_from_Brazil Says,
Could there be other reasons why VIX and VXO are at such low levels. Might it have anything to do with the fact that many hedgies are bust therefore not so much option activity? Could it be that many big players are sitting in cash therefore they don’t need to buy puts they do when they are heavy long…?
Any ideas?
Anonymous,
That’s some seriously funny shit.
No joke.
Anyone net long this market over the next 3-4 weeks will have his balls slap-chopped and his gains shamwowed.
Thanks for your response LadyG.
Phil,
In your opinion, what must the VIX get to before you cover? Or are you waiting for the Dow to reach a certain point?
Tom Brown’s smackdown of Obama and Geithner’s non-plan:
http://www.bankstocks.com/ArticleViewer.aspx?ArticleID=5669&ArticleTypeID=2
Controller, I’m looking for a mix of both. 6,000 is just my trader feel (using measured moves) about where we’re going next.
But I’d put a little more weight on the VIX, just because it’s so reliable. At 75 or 80 on the VIX, I wanna be cashing in on all my shorts.
As you can see, we’re no where near that level, so there’s plenty of open room for us to drop.
And from an anecdotal point of view, it makes sense. Everyone I talk to these days has been buying this stupid market. Even my sister bought emerging market exposure for her 401k this last week, feeling “the bottom was in”. I told her to wait until the DOW went to 3,000 eventually to start nibbling at anything for investment purposes. She laughed.
I think the CNBC, Foxnews, investment advisor “punditry” has convinced people that because the market has been going sideways, the bottom is in.
If you get enough people thinkin like that, volatility drops.
As to your point that the dwindling number of hedge funds is lowering demand for options activity, thereby suppressing the VIX, I’m not sure about that one. But it’s an interesting point of view.
How is SKS treating you FLY?Told you MVIS,M and now SKS your are a kiss of death!
Hey little2ric,
Go fuck yourself.
WHy is SKS a pain in your butt too?Don’t follow this phony FLY common over to my blog.
Why isn’t DEVILDOG here to celebrate ?
phil,
“I think the CNBC, Foxnews, investment advisor “punditry” has convinced people that because the market has been going sideways, the bottom is in.
If you get enough people thinkin like that, volatility drops.
Volatility indexes have nothing to do with this. It’s all generated by options.
I agree with you that the 6000 DOW will be seen before this is over but not before testing 8000-8200 again.
First we will se a bottom in the next 2-3 days (possibly today) betwen 7200-7500, go higher to 8 level and than a new run to breach 7000 to the downside.
3000 will NEVER be seen on the DOW. 4500 HIGHLY unlikely but possible. 5500 is where I go all LONG.
GLTA
GLTA
Yo Fly,
You like getting Gasparino’d? That news after all was fiction…
No, I happen to be almost 100% short (except for a SWHC long).
Short Bets:
V
BBBY
BBY
AMZN
XOM
DUG (long)
HOTT
CPKI
AAPL
But just because I’m banking coin right now, doesnt mean I mock.
Besides, that fucker is right more than he’s right.
If you think he sucks or that IBC is worthless, why dont you just got play with your own cornhole.
We dont need your bullshit.
Bloomberg said GS had no metting. Why do you watch that CNBC pumping bullshit.
Picked up some FAS under 8 earlier today
Missed DUG at 26 today but it’ll hit again
Jed sports a Hitler Mustache
Just read the post re CPKI and TXRH …
Good news for those chains is that food costs are declining but bad news is customers are too …
I’d downsize from TXRD to RRGB except for that right shoulder forming on the chart and the cost of those gourmet burgers …
Yummy!
I covered most of my shorts…remember people, we are down 7% already this week alone, plus we are nearing some pretty strong support…
Big Mike,
Probably not too bad of an idea. You might be living 300 sharp points on the table shortly but taking some OK
I see VXO is not really going to be a good signal here even though it moved couple of points in the last 20 minutes or so. I will take a 5 point sellof in XOM as a capitulation sign and get out as well.
Not only did the IMF specifically give Taxcheat Timmy funds to pay his ‘missed’ taxes (which he subsequently pocketed) but the stupid MF :
a) made most of his money flipping his house
b) IS UPSIDE FUCKING DOWN ON AN ARM
c) and has a $400k HELOC
This fucktard should be a caller on Suzy Orman’s show begging for financial advice, instead Obama has him as Treas Sec.
My head hurts – all the time lately.
http://tinyurl.com/aspgv6
I doubt the Elf will be the first T-man to declare bankruptcy while sitting in the big chair because the kindness of strangers will no doubt come into effect…
Big Mike – I also covered most shorts when the Dow was -180. Still short DRYS and m, though. Wish I’d tossed a bit of SRS at $70..