I no longer need to wear a disguise (mustache, sunglasses) when buying Dunkin’ Donuts coffee. See, America is all about being poor these days, with men like Joe the Plumber leading the poverty craze lower.
As you know, “The Fly” is all about conforming to current trends.
As a result, I no longer find it useful to walk/roam around with Starbucks cups, since rich people are played out. Instead, I wear my Dunkin’ poverty coffee cup with pride and outright dejected dishonor.
Also, I donated my extensive wardrobe of Ralph Lauren clothing to homeless dudes in Manhattan. And, to make matters “better,” I bought myself a new wardrobe of “Crocklers” pants, “Beverly Polo Association” shirts and “Jones NY” suits.
Again, acting poor has never been so fun.
I drive through highway tolls, exclaiming out loud “poverty is making me commit crimes and shit,” as I skip the toll. And, I send in my bills late, then ask for “payment programs,” due ot severe economic hardship. I envision a day where Steve (my neighbor) and I discuss the current state of NYC sales tax and how it affects regular folks, over a nice barrel of flaming garbage.
In other news, I’m going all in short here. The reversal is screaming “we’re fucked,” so act accordingly.
Oil will trade lower. With that in mind, [[DUG]] and short Petrohawk Energy Corporation [[HK]] makes “massive” sense to me. Also, I have been buying blocks of [[FXP]] , [[EEV]] and [[REW]] .
At the present, [[REW]] , [[EEV]] and [[FXP]] are my largest positions.
And, finally, I blew out of a variety of names, taking losses, in order to reposition for the pending egregious move to the downside.
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I’m no macro economist or expert on these matters. However doesn’t the $586 billion stimulus package announced by China mean that the country is going to have to sell some U.S. treasuries or stop buying new ones to pay for it? Wouldn’t that be a big negative to the United States?
I’m operating under the assumption, the only reason we have been able to pay for the trillions of dollars of deficits and bailout money for financial firms is on the “kindness of strangers” in the Middle East and Asia (China especially) willingness to buy more U.S. treasury debt. If this is the beginning of going the other way, that is worrisome.
Full Disclosure: Short SPY at time of writing.
The Fly is God.
DEVILDOG:
STFU before I stick you in the bathroom. You are a mush!
Here come da crash part deux…
Reverse head and shoulders my arse.
See you at the flaming garbage party.
EB,
Your kindness of strangers theory is dead on – just remember that Kowalski ended up drawing to an inside straight as they carted Stella’s sister off to the asylum. Here’s my skepticism on the Chinistimulus from night:
On top of only 2.5% being spent this quarter, note that when the State Council, China’s cabinet, authorised Rmb4,000bn ($586bn) of investment on infrastructure and social welfare over the next two years, it did not say how much of the spending would be on new projects not already in the budget.
Infrastructural spending in the 5 year plan for 2006-2010 was Rmb5,100bn, so let’s average it out and say Rmb1,275bn per year would be spent.
That’s Rmb2,550bn already targeted for 2009 and 2010, so if “new” stimulus includes the already budgeted amount, the “new” stimulus amounts to Rmb2,450bn…which is definitely less than the announced Rmb4,000bn.
Since they’re only blowing 2.5% of the (larger) total this quarter, are they announcing today’s big number for cosmetics and taking a wait and see attitude on actual spending?
A yuan doesn’t go far as it used to, and there are probably a lot more hands to grease as it travels into the Party hierarchy before emerging in a pile of asphalt or rail line somewhere…
In the meantime, sovereign dough is likely to sit on the sidelines until we really do hit the “generational bottom” – shout out to you, bran flakes, God bless your elderly colon – and by then Devildog will own all of Texas (a salute to you, too sir, for your service on this eve of November 11).
Fly, I’m just concerned about j and GENERATIONAL Bottom. Have you heard from them? BAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!
You wear Ralph Lauren clothing!? Thats the shit Cramer wears…
You moved down a notch in my book…your a notch(-2)
FYI: FXP…what a fucking goldmine
hey j and GENERATIONAL Bottom, waiting for a bounce at S&P 912 so you can get out? BAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!
Guys what is everyones opinion on UYG ????? Im still holding a good amount should I hold or should I just get out take min loss and buy a another block of fxp ?
Malaka:
You Greek homo:
Buy more FXP.
sell the f’in UYG ?
I sold a little. However, I’m prepared to buy more lower, while bulking up on shorts.
Greek bastard.
EEV almost green.
missed FXP at 65! fuck..so i bought at 75..fuck…normally when this happens the stock goes back to 65 and i would sell which at that point the stock goes back to 75 and i buy and so on…
not gonna happen this time…i’m gonna follow fly’s rules of building a position…
Shiiiiiiiiit I bury my postion in the world index of LABIA.
FXP today looks eerily like SKF did when the bailout was announced.
I just loaded the fuck up.
some one is liquidating a hedge fund. Just look at the charts looks like last friday before a large bounce.
Im in UYG @ 8.75. Im holding.
as for the chinese what else will they do with the eccess dollars? they could wipe their asses with it. Who would by treasuries down here anyway.
“Thunderpup Says:
Melissa Francis hosting a high end prostitution special? Interesting.”
Indeed. I’m tuning in for sure. Anyone else find her voice incredibly annoying? Too bad Erin can’t cover the whole day and just interview Liz Ann Sonders.
Fly, wud u recommend nibbling on GS here?
Fly…what happened to the aforementioned…
…“Thanksgiving Rally” ?
————————
Man…what an About-Face ! lol
.
Thanks giving taint here yet boyyy.
The dow just bounced.
Getting short here is the equivalent of squat thrusting over a garage full of moving porcupines.
ie, Far too much risk for the rewards of vigourous (sic), but largely ineffective exercise.
___
The market is no longer doomed and it’s no longer going to 10,000. We’re stuck now… low volume consolidation is all the rage.
It’s gonna suck balls. Time for more “Important Matter” posts.
-DT
I’m all about conforming. Market is screaming “mercy,” might as well pile on.
I feel a little but like I did last Novemeber.
When only Bruce and I were short.
We have some allies, this time, I guess.
______
For once I actually agree with that Hannity loving bastard
Bought 1500 WFMI 9.5..just a trade b/c the ridiculous place is still packed with people buying organic ducks. I generally don’t get the store, the layout and the people that shop/work there but if I can make $6K on stupid plastic shoes in 3 days…
Meanwhile…CNBC interviewing Tiger Woods. Why? Golf is fucked. Still short FO (whiskey, golf and fancy faucets) from $40.
Or “November” as it were, or would be, with an edit function.
___
Price target on GM cut to zero.
How quaint.
Jake:
The market is saying otherwise.
For once I actually agree with that Hannity loving bastard.
I sure hope you don’t mean me. I love Hannity about as much as I love our coming Barackracy.
Tards come in all stripes. This one came out of St. Pius X, school.
— Aside: I just found out that Joey Terranova (of CNBC fame) graduated a couple of years ahead of me from my high school.
________
The market is saying otherwise.
I was a little early last November too.
But just as serene as I am now.
“Buddha-like” even.
_______
Jake – I smoked out of CBL early today close to my average price. No sense standing in front of the next great depression. I’m going on vacation!
I don’t find Francis’ voice particularly irritating – somewhat nasal and slightly screechy, perhaps. Liz Ann Sonders definitely ages well.
Boomm re: CBL — it’s a long term hold. The 20% cash ROI makes it a bit more palatable in the short term for me.
_________
Liz Ann Sonders definitely ages well.
I dunno man, I think she kinda looks like Greta Van Sustren’s not-as-horrific younger sister.
Pass.
_______
FLY,
Close higher or lower today?
I dunno man, I think she kinda looks like Greta Van Sustren’s not-as-horrific younger sister.
Ouch. Lol. She’s not that bad, though.
Francis has Joker mouth.
Who has paid more for cosmetic surgery that didn’t work, Greta or Michael Jackson?
Silly flip flop traders, if SPX can hold 900 we’ll be ok, otherwise strong support at 850…at that level the market believed end of days was upon us….
Will we be adoringly covering The One’s first crap in the WH toilet too?
The One doesn’t crap. His food calories emit from his skin and are used to light and heat the earth.
The One doesn’t crap. His food calories emit from his skin and are used to light and heat the earth.
LOL.
______
The market is into tricking everyone into oblivion.
This is an ETF market and DevilDog is making a killing with SDP and FXP. I am still too long and SDS and FXP are not enough today to put me in the green. I bought some GS bonds – 2011 maturity.
Do not give up just yet on Fly’s Thanksgiving rally….technically and fundamentally we have not broke…yet….
TSO.
“Refiners up” telling anyone anything?
_______
ALLPROz, the Market was right then and stupid bulls like you weren’t listening. That is why we will have new lows by 11/19. Keep charging that red(as in your account balance) cape. BAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!
BTW, anyone seen j and GENERATIONAL Bottom?
I said “uncle” earlier. I say uncle again. It’s like Ron Popeil invented a special Veg-O-Matic just to slice and dice traders. I want out.
Jake, got any of that Buddha magic handy?
Devil, you need to be made humble and no better place than Mr. Market. I find it amusing how you crawl into your hole when we get as much as a pop…lol.
Do not discount the strength at these levels….
again….look at the macro picture…fundies and technicals…
– The $2 trillion hedge fund industry currently has $400 mil is currently sitting on $400-600 mil in cash (in part due to expected redemptions).
– Mutual funds tax selling is over as of October 31st.
– the average 401k investor is sold out of the market based on my propriatory (sic) research.
– Estimated $3 trillion + cash sitting on sidelines.
– BKX index shows double bottom July 15th and October 10th.
– Market capitulation observed Oct 10th and those levels have not been breached on S&P and Dow.
– Record negative consumer sentiment and 6 out of 10 Americans believe we are heading to a depression per recent survey.
I could go on. But the above tells me we are at the bottom. Sure these are historic times, but for the market to go lower, selling needs to occur and it appears that people with reason to sell have already sold.
Devil dog go gobble some goo
BTW, anyone seen j and GENERATIONAL Bottom?
Get a grip on yourself. “Generational Bottom” (and I like that name better than the one he’s chosen for himself) is extremely old, and can only post a couple of times before he needs his nap.
“J” is in Australia (and, an Australian, which I did not know til recently), so he’s likely asleep.
Hold off declaring victory for a bit. Barring that, you can spit vituperatives at me, who is also long, here.
________
Fly, here is a contrary opinion on HK http://zachstocks.com/2008/11/petrohawk-energy-corporation-hk-cooking-with-gas/
Devil Puppy, you are jinxing The Fly’s holdings with regularity. Zip it, Devil Doggie.
The Fly is God.
Jake, got any of that Buddha magic handy?
Yes, look under the LEAPs section of your local options store.
_______
Ditto CAP…….
We need a GS fortune cookie.
ALLPROz and CAP, by 11/19 you will have learned the difference between a panic low(10/10) and a capitulation low. Until then I suggest you keep buying long per your analysis.
FXP to zero
OIL to 90
DOW JONES will close green
DEVILDOG will get thrown out of his house for going broke
JAKE should get his own tab
Natty is going back to $4. The HK analysis is flawed.
Not to be political but what happens when all of OB’s advisors once they are broke? Will they still be the “experts”?
BTW, I love that standard bulltard shit about “all that cash sitting on the sidelines” instead of paying off all time historic national and personal debt. Can’t you come up with another bulltard bedtime fairytale? Hey what happened to krudlow’s goldilocks and the 3 BEARS? I know “mustard seeds” will fix everything. BAHHHHHHHHH!!!
Dr. Incognito Says:
Not to be political but what happens when all of OB’s advisors once they are broke? Will they still be the “experts”?
November 10th, 2008 at 2:23 pm
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what happens, The statue of Liberty gets torn down and replaced with Aunt Jemima, complete with pan cake whirrling hydo arm.
Fuck national debts. Fuckem
Devil dogs version of a pussy
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iv5E4XccCj4
I sort of admire you guys taking on the PRC government with the FXP trade. Don’t they buy stocks when they have to?
Not like Halfway Hank.
Fly,
I agree that natural gas could head down but don’t agree with your HK short. There are better natural gas stocks to short – NFX will tank at 4$ gas. Several companies would love to buy out HK for their Haynesville land position – even at 4$ gas. This is the stuff that doesn’t show up in PPT black magic.
Enough with asinine comments about trillions of cash sitting on the sidelines – I may be in cash, you may be in cash but we sold someone
My herpies itch,
Does that come under proposition 3?
Fly says:
The market is into tricking everyone into oblivion.
I want to know the definition of “market” -is this market controlled by a faction of financial terrorists and if so who are the players?
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