The Bear Market is Back!

With all of its splendor and pizazz, the great bear market of 2009 has returned, and it is mad as hell. Just know, if you are long equities, you are in grave danger of losing your eyes to knife wielding clowns.

Truth be told, as unbelievable as it may seem, I am still not up and running. I have partial liquidity, with limited buying power. So, until I am able to kick old men down idle sewer drains again, my trading behavior will remain pedestrian. I repeat, my trading behavior will remain pedestrian.

So you know, I am making nice coin in SRS, FAZ and SCO today. Frankly, the market can start swan diving from here, if the bears are up to the task. Take a look at the insurance firms, LNC ans PFG. If that does not scare you, nothing will.

As for the banks:

They are all lying their stupid faces off. How the fuck are they, suddenly and magically, making money? Can you say AIG funnel fraud? If so, say it 10 times fast, then backwards.

Right here, right now, I like HME and RIG short. Moreover, I like TLT and SCO long.

Oil is fucked right alongside all of the asinine banks and erroneously managed commercial real estate jokers. This decline will tombstone Jim Cramer’s dickfaces career as a television stock cheerleader.

Jon Stewart will fucking crucify him.

SHAME ON THE HOUSE OF CRAMER UPDATE: Former TSCM columnist, Lenny Dykstra, is a fucking fraud. How many times did Jim suck his dick?

UPDATE: Jim Rogers on the UK.

If this pullback turns into something more, such as another failed bear market rally, it will poleax every single stock market cheerleader, starting with Cramer.

People like Cramer and his ilk have been out in front, telling everyone to suck the pants off of this market. Hell, we are just two months away from a housing bottom, according to Cramer.

One thing is for certain: Should we go back to new lows, the market will be fucked on a spindle for the rest of 2009. Taking a look at today’s action, it is very disconcerting. Ag plays like MOS, POT and TNH are being taken to the cleaners, as well as all oil/gas plays. Also, there is broad weakness, amongst all sectors (minus gold), led by banks, retailers, insurance names and REITS aka the bear market rally winners.

Very classic, indeud.

Basically, we are back in the funnel, being lowered into the DEFLATIONARY VORTEX.

To play the vortex game, you need to be long treasuries, dollars and short stocks. Also, you can bet against eurotrash, via DRR. And, early cycle recovery plays, like the semi’s, via short sales of KLAC, INTC or long SSG.

Now, I am objective enough to accept the possibility that this dip is nothing more than a way station higher, at least until May. So, with my money, I will NOT commit much capital. Moreover, if I do, it will be placed in low beta investments, like TLT.

However, should the market continue to weaken, I will get emboldened and begin short sales in ACC, WRI and HME. For the moment, MAC is a bit too low for my taste—fyi.

And, finally, I will likely initiate some sort of bear position on oil today, via SCO or DUG/ERY. On the long side, I don’t like much of anything right now, short of TLT, UUP and maybe a little GLD.

NOTE: The carnage in LNC, PFG and MET, amongst other insurance names is alarming. Keep a close eye on them.

UPDATE: As per the Obama conference, he will be bankrupting Chrysler in 30 days and GM in 60. Basically, insurance stocks and banks are feeling the brunt, due to the enormous amount of debt and preferred stock out there. Regarding GM: the debt load is egregious. When the haircuts come, banks and insurance firms will take knives to the eyes.

UPDATE II: I bought 2,000 SCO @ $31.10

There are lots of reasons to hate this market, with very little to like it. Having missed 2/3rds of the recent run up, I can tell you, objectively, you looked very stupid out there, buying stocks, while ignoring the death needle.

Here on Wall Street, we all laugh at the common folk, who ardently, and patriotically, buy stocks for the “long term.” We chuckle, with great vigor, on full stomachs, at the inflation hawks, who so desperately want to be bailed out of their disastrous commodity bets.

However, the business of blogging is no laughing matter. Through rain or shine, “The Fly” must come out here everyday, on “The Grande Stage,” called iBankCoin, in order to amuse and enlighten the common folk—which is you—the reader.

More on this later.

For now, focus your efforts on the banks, cre and oil. I like long bets on SRS, FAZ, SCO, ERY and TLT. Almost immediately following this post, I will buy some TLT, in an effort to “desack” many of you inflation lovers. Furthermore, the FAZ and SRS positions, which were purchased in “Plutonium Petey’s” personal account last week, will remain whole.

I intend to take profits on them at significantly higher prices, all the while our world leaders twiddle their thumbs in some egregious G-20 meeting.

UPDATE: I bought 2,000 TLT @ $105.48

I’ll be shocked and amazed if this isn’t some sort of ruse to trick everyone to get short, only to crush them later on with some last minute, back of the envelope fuckery.

As of now, foreign markets and U.S. futures are decidedly negative. Should Obama do the right thing and let GM go bust, the market will be funnier than a suicide bomber, dressed as a banana, inside of a munitions factory— run by a bunch of gay guys in gorilla costumes.

Developing…

Brown and Obama are trying to convince other G-20 nations to borrow and spend; but, so far, it’s not working. The idea that we can tell the Germans or Spaniards to spend more money, in reckless fashion, so that we don’t look like the only crazy motherfuckers on the street, is insane.

It’s like me wearing a red shirt, decorated with a full jar of mayonnaise. By myself, I would look like a fucking idiot. However, if I convinced all of my friends and neighbors to wear mayonnaise laden shirts too, hell, I’d be in style, like a great bearded goat in the grey mountains—a trend setter to boot.

The path America is taking is an unsustainable one. At some point, foreign governments will cease lending us money. However, I do not believe that will cause a run on the dollar. Congress will enact new laws that give employers and employees tax incentives to invest in treasuries, in replace of equities; because equities are evil and government bonds are fan-fucking-tastic.

No matter what, the government will fight tooth and nail to keep the gig going.

Sometime next week, I will begin buying treasuries, via TLT or BLV (thinly traded). In addition, I will hedge my dollar strength bet, by going long Yuan, via CYB. And, to hedge it a little further, I may buy some gold, via GLD.

Finally, if the market shows strength, I will buy beaten down retailers, like GES and ANF. However, in my gut, I feel this recent rally is long in the tooth and due for a correction.

Into weakness, I will short oil, via SCO. And, I will further my “fuck CRE” thesis, via short sales in ACC, HME and WRI. Finally, I will likely add to my small SRS and FAZ positions.

NOTE: My fellow blogger Gio, will be out indefinitely. He is mourning the death of a good friend, who, tragically, perished by drowning. Leave him a note of encouragement if you can.

UPDATE: A must read, especially for all of you government dick suckers and bank longs.

My favorite part:
During Jan/Feb AIG would call up and just ask for complete unwind prices from the credit desk in the relevant jurisdiction. These were not single deal unwinds as are typically more price transparent – these were whole portfolio unwinds. The size of these unwinds were enormous, the quotes I have heard were “we have never done as big or as profitable trades – ever.”

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eEFzYxDPf0A 450 300]

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsnsdgPEDR8 450 300]

UPDATE: The Great Roubini on Geithner.

UPDATE II: For PPT subscribers, Asset Allocation for Dummies. The rest of you are just too smart.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FktYzdDJdqQ 450 300]

Give the market the benefit of the doubt, that it will go lower, not higher. Allow yourself, like the hideous pig masters that you are (that phrase has no meaning), to get short stocks, while accepting the notion that the market may rally until May.

Are you following me?

In other words, be open minded enough to accept a spring rally, but at the same time, be skeptical of it.

My position is to play the momentum, on both ends. As of now, I am long FAZ and SRS, with no longs. As you can see by the end of day prints, I was correct in buying them, yet again. I am not afraid of being short over the weekend, since all of the so called “good news” has been announced.

In other news, it appears Dylan Ratigan is leaving CNBC. Good for him. He was one of the very select few CNBC personalities that spoke the truth or possessed a modicum of intelligence, when spouting rhetoric on the teevee. Now Fast Money will sink, like the fucking Titanic, under the inept stewardship of Zach Karabell and “Taco Joe” Terranova.

In short, “The Fly” is back from his two week hiatus and will resume bowling on you clowns, while throwing jumping jacks at you—from the back of my 80’s style stretch limousine.

Pardon me for posting under such an alarmist title, but it’s true. I’ve been reading some of the Godly newspapers, near the cashier, at my local grocery store, and almost all of them warn of “imminent” and “grave danger” to the Earth, something to do with lots of old cold war era nuclear war heads stored underground.

So you know, Senor Tropicana has secured asylum on the planet “Asstard,” and none of you are invited. While here, on this doomed planet, I intend to “bet” on bank and commercial re stocks going lower. Sometime soon, I will begin betting on oil stocks sucking dirt too.

In an odd twist of reality mixed with misty mirages, I have decided to bet against the 99% of the water buffalo running around on iBankCoin, in order to prove a point. That point being: I am smarter than all of you combined.

Watch and learn, old Chap. Watch and learn.