Brown and Obama are trying to convince other G-20 nations to borrow and spend; but, so far, it’s not working. The idea that we can tell the Germans or Spaniards to spend more money, in reckless fashion, so that we don’t look like the only crazy motherfuckers on the street, is insane.
It’s like me wearing a red shirt, decorated with a full jar of mayonnaise. By myself, I would look like a fucking idiot. However, if I convinced all of my friends and neighbors to wear mayonnaise laden shirts too, hell, I’d be in style, like a great bearded goat in the grey mountains—a trend setter to boot.
The path America is taking is an unsustainable one. At some point, foreign governments will cease lending us money. However, I do not believe that will cause a run on the dollar. Congress will enact new laws that give employers and employees tax incentives to invest in treasuries, in replace of equities; because equities are evil and government bonds are fan-fucking-tastic.
No matter what, the government will fight tooth and nail to keep the gig going.
Sometime next week, I will begin buying treasuries, via TLT or BLV (thinly traded). In addition, I will hedge my dollar strength bet, by going long Yuan, via CYB. And, to hedge it a little further, I may buy some gold, via GLD.
Finally, if the market shows strength, I will buy beaten down retailers, like GES and ANF. However, in my gut, I feel this recent rally is long in the tooth and due for a correction.
Into weakness, I will short oil, via SCO. And, I will further my “fuck CRE” thesis, via short sales in ACC, HME and WRI. Finally, I will likely add to my small SRS and FAZ positions.
NOTE: My fellow blogger Gio, will be out indefinitely. He is mourning the death of a good friend, who, tragically, perished by drowning. Leave him a note of encouragement if you can.
UPDATE: A must read, especially for all of you government dick suckers and bank longs.
My favorite part:
During Jan/Feb AIG would call up and just ask for complete unwind prices from the credit desk in the relevant jurisdiction. These were not single deal unwinds as are typically more price transparent – these were whole portfolio unwinds. The size of these unwinds were enormous, the quotes I have heard were “we have never done as big or as profitable trades – ever.”
“It’s like me wearing a red shirt, decorated with a full jar of mayonnaise”- brilliant.
Where are the “gray mountains”?
BTW CYB hardly moves.
Thanks for SRS — bot x 1000 Friday
liar. I never wrote that.
And then there’s this:
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.9849350f816804a357829631f0fd7a21.1371&show_article=1
No worries, print some more.
Beg your pardon:
“…I’d be in style, like a great bearded goat in the grey mountains—a trend setter to boot…”
BTW – I got tired of holding CYB it was like watching mayonnaise dry on a red shirt
I never wrote “gray,” as you originally suggested.
BTW: All mountains are gray. I am guessing your brain is unable to pick up on colors.
Or money shot dry on your face. Fly is God.
Friend,
Your Roman numerals are assbackwards.
Good Day to you.
my comments were not intended to be argumentative, or offensive. I have been reading your blog for several years and admire your success.
Life is tough enough to get into it over nothing.
Good day to you too.
Mike,
Fly was referring to your spelling of “grey”, as “gray”. These small matters matter greatly to Fly.
JS:
Then he was correct – TY
There once was a man named “The Fly”;
He buys stocks low, and sells high;
But when he goes short;
You take great comfort;
Knowing he’ll bank coin to the sky!
Fly,
What do you make of Austin Foolsbee, I mean, Goolsbee? How can a guy as learned as this individual be so wrong as to take up the mantle of Communism by adhering himself like a barnacle to the Good Ship Obamapop?
Full disclosure: Actually, I was lying. I typed “gray” instead of “grey” and was shamed for it by a man named “Mike.”
The vision of everyone wearing shirts spooged with mayo is gay.
Actually, you were shamed for it by a man (presumably) named “mike”.
The term “spooge” is gay…
Fly,
CYB just broke out of a double bottom base with a $25.50 buy point.
It’s my right name, however to maintain privacy I use a lower case “m”
Both CYB & CNY have moved up recently.
What are they gonna do to encourage that buying …give a tax break on the 3% interest earned? …ineffective. And I doubt that they could pass an outright tax credit for citizens with the means to buy our debt.
US citizens have become the marginal buyers of US debt out of pure fear. Foreigners don’t love our paper (with good reason) – – and fear has a short shelf life. TLT is a short.
Thank you Fly. I appreciate your comment and wish you continued success.
JS: thank you too
fly… more fodder for your cre assessment. http://www.ft.com/cms/8a38c684-2a26-11dc-9208-000b5df10621.html?_i_referralObject=1066258997&fromSearch=n
mike:
Haven’t you heard? There is NO privacy on the internets:
http://tinyurl.com/d2hh3q
Brown = NWO wanker
Obomba = double wanker
For those of you that don’t believe Phil from Brazil. Turn on CNN at 5:00pm. They will be talking about how Brazil is going to grow over the coming years.
Provided we don’t sink into a dreaded depression all commodity countries will experience high growth over the next decade.
Spartans are plucking the feathers off the Cardinals. I bet Jake is sweating right now.
Here comes Tiger.
Come on Sean. Get it together.
Play the course one hole at a time and not Tiger.
There is no need for American autos.
The Chinese will begin selling cars here in 2010. They already produce more cars than we do.
http://www.ttnews.com/articles/basetemplate.aspx?storyid=21573
Tata also has plans to sell licenses to manufacture their cars.
You must excuse Fly, he is a little testy after he was outed as having actually and hypocritically voted for B. Hussein Obama. But at least he has apologized for lashing out at mike, so that’s a start.
Hey Fly, I like the ever-changing crap that runs underneath the “iBankCoin” title. Here’s a few more that you can use free of charge as long as you obsequiously thank me on your knees:
iBankCoin:
–will kill you where you stand.
–is sleeping with your wife.
–knows who killed JFK.
–is fluent in 7 languages.
–is the 9th wonder of the world.
–knows the meaning of life.
–is the antidote to stupidity.
–is the master of all it surveys.
–is based on a true story.
–can handle the truth.
–insists on your obedience.
–is mad as hell and is not going to take it anymore.
–has an IQ that is off the charts.
–is good with its hands.
–is the life of the party.
–is intoxicating.
–is addictive.
–has you under its spell.
–cannot be held accountable.
–is the Cadillac of financial websites.
–has the strength of 10 men.
–is not as dumb as it looks. (I like this one best.)
Rick Wagner steps down @ O request:
Good Ridance
make that Good Riddance
Why I’m afraid to own FAZ at this point… It may just be my own ignorance.
“Private investors” may be coming in to buy some toxic assets, and will likely price them at high levels. Why? Because the banks are likely to collude with a hedge fund, or create a subsidiary to do just that on borrowed money from the government. If a bank only needs to put up about 7% of what their original asset is priced at (and the rest paid for by the Fed/Treas.), they are going to cut their losses by ~14 times, and the Fed/Treas. (or more accurately, the US tax payer), will be left holding the bag. The banks will remain solvent, and only take a small loss instead of a large one. I could be wrong, but only if there are rules that the banks (or a subsidiary, etc) cannot buy their own assets back for a cheaper price. Anyone know?
.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0309/20625.html
Obama tells Wagoner to hit the bricks…ouch
My bracket looks like legacy paper.
Serious depression.
Like, get me a Xanax scrip.
Mighty Pitino has struck out*.
This might be worse than the Giants losing to the Beagles in the playoffs this year.
________________
*(Outcoached by less sharply dressed Dago)
______
So who will that fucking shitbag tell to step down next. Fucking ridiculous, why doesn’t the fucking government just nationalize everything. I suspect you are about to see a massive amount of TARP money going back to the fuckfaces ASAP as CEO’s shit their pants and realize you can’t take money from governments even if they tell you to. Either way we are going to retest the lows. Fuck Obama’s meat sucking wagon.
Why can’t mountains be “gray?”
I don’t get the issue?
___________
TC — are you at this Tiger comeback event?
__________
http://thedanzatap.com/?p=4472#comments
Maybe Vince’s Date?
This is gold:
Why yes, Father, I DO believe that’s a mountain of blow on the horizon!
__________
Fly said “Congress will enact new laws that give employers and employees tax incentives to invest in treasuries, in replace of equities; because equities are evil and government bonds are fan-fucking-tastic.”
Bingo, Fly wins again! Look for this type of incentive to show up somewhere soon in pension, profit-sharing and 401(k) legislation. It would be soooo EZ for Congress to pass it and make it look like it’s everyone’s patriotic duty to “buy American” …. treasuries, that is. As soon as freakin’ possible they will probably also start selling the 21st century version of GNMA’s.
Some mountains are black however, i.e. the black hills of SD. of course I guess “hills” don’t count, but they are black, I’ve been there.
and then some mountains are white, i.e. the alps.
so I guess with some black and some white, the grey ones are the ones that are in a “grey area”
hee hee hee….
but on a serious note.
with Obama asking Wagner to leave a.s.a.p. what will this do to GM stock first thing in the morning?
will it shoot up 100% in 1 hour or go down or not move?
will this news cause a sell off tomorrow with people thinking the government will do some fuckery and dissolve the common shares?
will the news cause a sell off in all entities that took tarp money?
This should get you wondering
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/03/exclusive-aig-was-responsible-for-banks.html
Jake- No I was at the Louisville game.
Oops, sorry about that.
Only kidding.
No, I am not at the tournament. Just watching on the tube, although I did have a streak of about 12 years in a row watching the last groups come in at 18. Always sat in the same spot with my son and a bunch of people who came from all over year after year. Always fun.
Artist– things are not well…we are all going to the barbershop…show me an asset class that looks good to you? I know let me guess guns and ammo. Green Chutes and Mustard Seeds my ass…..get a load of this story.
http://www.kansascity.com/115/story/1112185.html
Get in the Funnel
A profitable bank in these economic conditions is a cause for extreme skepticism.
TC — please, no japing. I’m still very fragile.
This looks like a nice final day, ovah heah… all tied up at -4 with two hard holes to go.
Even Johnson has an outside shot.
__________
Comments?
Four ETFs Falling Into An Abyss – FAZ, RWR, IHF, ITA
http://oxburyresearch.com/2009/03/26/four-etfs-falling-into-an-abyss-%E2%80%93-faz-rwr-ihf-ita/
Jake- Zach J. just blistered it.
A playoff will go tomorrow I am sure as it’s getting dark.
It would be great if Zach gets a birdie. Good guy that used to live down the road. My kid took a bunch of $$ off him in putting and chipping contests.
Well, that’s two years in a row on hole 72 for Tiger.
Feel bad for Sean but NBC and the PGA is happy.
“are u kidding me!!!! this is unbelievable!!!!” -NBC background
what a putt…..again….
Great tournament to watch. O’Hair got ancy on 16 but really how do you compete with Tiger’s up and down on 16 for par then that last putt, tough to beat someone who shuts the door on you.
thanks for that link, chart addict. that was very enlightening and hardly surprising at the same time. ugh.
tiger is a maniac. just incredible. scary good under pressure.
it’s backasswards …
Fly I think it was all planned that way. The backlash that Joe “idiot and uninformed” would have if he heard the money was going to Goldman and all the other banks would be enormous. I think that AIG was the easiest pawn since it was going to fail anyway. Why not use it to funnel the money to keep the system afloat. No doubt that the banks had synthetic successes over the past 2 months. The question now is can they take the free lunch they got and turn themselves around. I personally don’t think so in the short term but it will hold them afloat until they can write off all the bad debt slowly.
Vince to replace Wagner @ GM
TC- that was some “made for teevee finish” — that Woods is worth every penny they pay him. The PGA should buy him a solid gold Rolls.
_______________
Mike — Lol! A “slapchop” in every boot.
__________
Rally to S&P 874 no later than 4/6.
OH SHI-
When did Devildog get bullish?
But a trader who works for one of the major banks
has made a shocking claim — that this profitability was solely due to exceptionally favorable trading with AIG (AIG).
How the fuck would he know what the rest of the bank is making? This is just horse shit. Sure, his operation may have been hugely successful, but unless he’s privy to the rest of the banks results his opinion counts for shit.
Yes Dog… “rally no later than 6/4”. However I concerned with your other prediction which is that the market will tank on July 17 2015. Are you still going with that?
J,
It may be horseshit, but how else are banks suddenly making profits in January and now are saying March was more difficult in the face of a huge rally this month?
the chinese will fight Yuan appreciation, but if the dollar is going to go sharply down then who knows what they will do. that’s the thing: its unpredictable. I like sure shots. currencies piss me off.
chinese will not pull the carpet suddenly out from under the US unless the US really is going totally apocalyptic. they have been steadily diversifying for years though. most active in africa and now talking up south america.
an orderly decline would be nice, eh wot ? kind of like the british empire did it.
AUD, CAD and their commodity markets (I expect more turbulence in commodities for a while tho)
Wow!! AIG just overbidding for shit because they are fucked anyways. Let me re-phrase.. Because their hand is deep in the taxpayer’s pocket. Taxpayer scientifically can only lose!!
Goldie:
A freaking trader doesn’t know if the bank is making money across the the product divide. How do i know? I was one at one time and we knew shit.
I have also a friend who is a senior trader at BoA and I ask him all the time if the bank has made money. He knows shit because they are told nothing and he gets his news on the bank form the papers like everyone else.
the only way that dude would know if they made money solely from AIG is after the bank announced the quarterly results and he worked it out.
How are the banks making money at the moment?
Portfolio marks stopped falling.
Huge refi fees.
Enormous spreads between borrowing and lending.
Decent capital markets trading this quarter.
That’s how they made money.
Fly,
Evidently I don’t remember bond trading. Why buy Treasuries? I don’t see interest rates moving down. Looking for enlightenment…
J,
Nice explanation. Thanks.
did i breakout and retest?
And so it begins…
http://taxdayteaparty.com/
The Fed is buying Treasuries. Why not piggy back them?
TLT was 121.
Futures plunging — Obama will do structured bankruptcy on GM & Chrysler soon — see news
yeah… i am a friend of Gio’s friend as well… this friend of ours has a brother that we are closer to… but his brother was like our brother…
freak accident… if any of you come to Hawaii. Respect the ocean, my friend that died did and something still happened.
Anyway, that was cool of FLY to get people to lay off of Gio for awhile.
Aloha…