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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

S E R V E D!

Just shut up. I expect to see zero comments left on my blog today. I declare, there should be a moment of silence on iBankCoin today, in remembrance of the bears. If you have something to say, please, say nothing at all.

As you know, I was out all day, but was checking in every 15 seconds or so. Much to the ideologues chagrin, the market melted their faces off—like a snow cone on the sun. I took egregious profits in PL (44% win): thank you Uncle Gint. And, I initiated new positions in GLW, ERX and IR. I know a guy who knows a guy who says “IR is fucking smoking.” Synergies with Trane are going well and the company is on track to blow away numbers.

We shall see.

For the most part, small crappers took the day off, as all of the money homed in on the heads of bank/cre shorts. I enjoyed monstrous gains in TWi, CUZ, SD, OVTI and PL, while enjoying light wins in RFMD, DELL, BEE, GMO, ATHR, and ERX (new position).

In short, there are signs of recovery within the housing market. If this continues, you will see real estate investors step in hard, afraid to miss out on a potential bottom. In my opinion, you’re better off pouring gasoline over your head, just prior to lighting a cigar, instead of shorting this market—during rampant hopes of a housing recovery.

For the love of dirty mugs and unkempt office space, if housing starts to reflate, we’re going to 10,000 in short order.

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Fly Buys: IR, GLW

I bought 15,000 [[IR]] @ $21.64 and 10,000 [[GLW]] @ $14.

Disclaimer:
If you buy the above stocks because of this post, DEVILDOG will be elected Mayor of your city. And, you may lose money.

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The Bulls Regain the Initiative

Ruh-roh. If my senses are correct (they always are), the bears are in for an arduous day, spearheaded by the better-than-expected numbers from LOW, the amazing/historic one day 17% melt up in India, the 2% reversal in European indices, the higher oil prices, the successful capital raise from STT (w/o FDIC help), the BAC upgrade to “conviction buy list” at Goldman, and finally, the positive news coming from certain chip companies.

In short, most of you are wrong, yet again (fucking shocker), with regards to where the market is going and why. You are stuck on stupid, reading the news clippings, which—for the most part— eschew any tidings of positivity—because doom and gloom sells more paper and ink.

My personal preference is to see the system collapse, like a giant block of feta cheese, so that I may take full advantage of my temperament and seize (colonial style) neighboring lots adjacent to my house—in order to expand The House of Fly. However, things don’t always work out according to plan. I am smart enough to know that the market is always trying to make me look stupid. The question is: am I willing to stick to my guns, just so that I could save face—and as a result lose money? Or, do any of my fucking opinions matter, except what I am saying/doing in real time?

Sometimes I get caught up in my own ideas, which often result in temporary set backs, of the monetary kind. As a matter of fact, I believe my current bullish disposition is counter trend to what many “brilliant” Wall Street pundits reinforce on a daily basis: go away in May.

Perhaps the market is due to pullback. But, maybe it’s not. What if the March low was the absolute bottom and the economy is truly recovering, thanks in large part to “free money” and wild eyed policy makers. Are you willing to miss out or get caught in a custom made murderhole, just because some asshole on CNBC said all of the banks are going to fail?

For a large part of this morning, into the afternoon, “The Fly” will be in meetings, unable to spoon feed you fuckers internet gold. My buy list is narrow, including CIEN, STAR, SPiL, ERX, as well as average downs on some of my positions: FTK, TWi, CUZ and ATHR.

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Does This Annoy You?

Ever since the financial meltdown befell us in 2007, the blogosphere has been brimming with “DEATH MERCHANT” and/or bearshitter blogs, who find great pleasure in predicting your death, by way of armed revolts or pestilence. Often times I fall into that camp, if only to bank a little coin. By no means is “The Fly” a card carrying member of the “idiot triangle,” who are infected by treatable hypomanic disorders, if only they bothered taking large doses of prescribed psychotropics.

I could care less about the injustices taking place or how the shadow banking system is giving your grandparents cancer and your favorite uncle aids. I declare, with extreme zeal, the financial blogosphere, for the most part, is entirely useless—a fucking wasteland of asshole rumor milling and pompous egocentric misfits.

Some might say, “hey Fly, you are the biggest asshole of them all, with an ego the size of IC 1101.” To them, I retort, “incorrect Good Sir, I am humble enough to know my opinions are malleable and my market biases mirror shape-changers, as opposed to the ideologues who double as fucking doomsday gargoyles, made from shit and stone.”

Instead of discussing the numerous events that are deemed to be irrelevant, by those with a stable cognitive state and without acute identity crises, why not throw out some fucking stock ideas? Is that too fucking hard to do? I mean, asshole, let’s stop pretending to be privy to top secret NSA documents, as if this was the internet version of cloak and dagger: let’s bank-some-coin. At the end of the day, what the fuck are we talking about here? What is your point?

My cartel is homed in on seeing bank accounts appreciate in value, regardless of the environment or roadblocks that get it the way of our revenue generating think-tanks.

If the market continues to dip, I will buy CIEN, STAR, SPIL, AMKR and ERX, aside from my current positions. In addition, I will be trimming back on micro-cap tombstones, in exchange for larger cap names, like SYT or maybe a little MON—an Uncle Jake favorite.

In short, I am not so convinced the Fed’s actions are not working, with regards to reflation. As a matter of fact, there are signs of reflation everywhere. If you weren’t so wrapped up with the idea that the fucking planet was about to get sucked into a a giant Jack-in-the-box, maybe you would be in a position to profit from the market whims.

Instead, you find yourself conquered by way of a $35 cost basis on FAZ.

Asshat.

Caveat:
Should we break down, I will have a large list of stocks to bet against too.

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An Overview of the Market, via The PPT

Remember, The PPT is a program developed by space alien magicians, in order to enrich a small subset of lucky humans. It does operate under the handicap or advantage of human emotions, unlike Senor Tropicana. Often times, I fuck myself by not listening to the darn thing (FTK). On the other hand, The PPT spits on most penny stocks. Therefore, if I operated exclusively like a homo robot (no offense to heterosexual robots), I’d miss out on a plethora of “dead cat bounce” trades, which have enriched my current accounts a great deal over the last 3 weeks. In my opinion, a blend of both mechanical (hetero robot) and human intuition is the optimal trading disposition for me. Truth be told, I am still adjusting.

At any rate, here are some useful data points, all thanks and praise to the high IQ’d men over at The PPT.

Overall (3,316 stocks)

Market Overview
Average Technical Score: 1.25 Strong Sell
Average Fundamental Score: 3.56 Buy
Average Hybrid Score: 2.24 Sell

Top 10 stocks (no market cap screen)

No. Ticker Technicals Fundamentals Hybrid Score Hybrid Change – Daily Hybrid Change – Weekly
1 SIGM 3.19 4.90 3.93 6.50% 24.18%
2 VIV 3.64 4.20 3.88 16.52% 11.35%
3 TXN 3.19 4.80 3.88 -0.51% 34.33%
4 MDF 3.34 4.55 3.86 1.05% 46.59%
5 CF 3.02 4.95 3.85 9.07% 1.80%
6 NPK 3.04 4.90 3.84 41.18% 10.62%
7 PETM 3.24 4.55 3.81 39.05% 2.27%
8 MOS 3.07 4.80 3.81 -6.16% 46.27%
9 TIBX 3.19 4.60 3.80 15.15% 46.15%
10 FUQI 3.09 4.70 3.78 42.11% -12.08%


Bottom 10 stocks
(min. price $10)

No. Ticker Hybrid Score Price
1 OSIR 1.00 12.35
2 PACW 1.10 16.90
3 LOPE 1.14 14.35
4 THRX 1.17 13.42
5 OSTK 1.20 10.91
6 ITMN 1.20 11.41
7 XCO 1.27 11.19
8 BMRN 1.27 14.00
9 CELG 1.29 39.80
10 SBAC 1.30 22.20

Top 10 Industries

No. Industry Tech. Fund. Hybrid Hybrid Change – Daily Hybrid Change – Weekly
1 Dairy Products 2.55 3.84 3.11 9.98% 23.91%
2 Agricultural Chemicals 2.23 3.86 2.93 -6.06% 22.30%
3 Multimedia & Graphics Software 1.97 3.80 2.80 13.97% 7.57%
4 Beverages – Brewers 1.52 4.28 2.70 -4.98% 0.55%
5 Air Services, Other 1.94 3.70 2.70 15.07% 5.16%
6 Healthcare Information Services 2.28 3.18 2.67 3.48% 12.24%
7 Processing Systems & Products 1.55 4.11 2.65 0.53% 8.86%
8 Tobacco Products, Other 1.99 3.52 2.65 -3.78% 4.96%
9 Printed Circuit Boards 1.51 4.14 2.64 -0.12% 6.69%
10 Health Care Plans 1.63 3.96 2.63 1.24% 8.30%

Bottom 10 Industries

No. Industry Tech. Fund. Hybrid Hybrid Change – Daily Hybrid Change – Weekly
1 Real Estate Development 0.88 2.95 1.77 -9.35% -19.69%
2 Major Airlines 1.00 2.81 1.78 1.98% 4.25%
3 Lumber, Wood Production 0.98 2.86 1.79 -7.12% -5.24%
4 Publishing – Newspapers 1.01 2.84 1.80 -4.07% -21.05%
5 Office Supplies 0.93 2.96 1.80 -0.64% -5.06%
6 Residential Construction 1.05 2.84 1.82 -1.68% -1.20%
7 Lodging 0.98 2.94 1.82 -5.42% -3.22%
8 REIT – Office 0.98 3.03 1.86 -2.15% -8.13%
9 Regional – Midwest Banks 0.88 3.18 1.87 -4.25% -9.94%
10 Regional – Pacific Banks 0.91 3.29 1.90 -2.86% -17.27%

Top 10 ETF’s

No. Ticker Acc/Dist Price Perf. Rel. Strength Volatility Volume Final Score
1 ECH 5 4 3 3 2 4.16
2 BSR 5 3 3 2 3 4.04
3 HAO 5 3 2 4 4 4
4 MOO 5 3 1 4 4 3.9
5 ERY 5 3 1 5 2 3.76
6 SCC 5 3 1 3 4 3.76
7 TFI 5 2 5 1 1 3.7
8 DTO 5 2 1 5 3 3.63
9 SJF 5 3 1 3 1 3.61
10 UUP 5 2 4 1 3 3.61

And here are four of my custom screens, worth a look over.

OVEREXTENDED (possible short sale set ups)

No. Ticker Hybrid Score Short as % of Float Net Cash per Share / Price YTD Return Price
1 BKS 2.47 22.20 -0.09 51.79 22.42
2 BGC 2.46 10.70 -0.64 93.95 34.31
3 BIG 2.45 24.20 -0.12 67.56 24.28
4 JWN 2.36 17.30 -0.55 71.25 22.52
5 LULU 2.34 16.40 0.06 54.80 12.28
6 AMMD 2.33 10.30 -0.52 63.07 14.66
7 CAB 2.31 19.20 -0.46 113.89 12.47
8 WNR 2.20 16.60 -1.43 72.93 13.42
9 ISLE 2.19 14.70 -3.66 270.63 11.86
10 MDP 2.12 15.20 -0.38 52.91 25.73
11 WFMI 2.08 13.30 -0.33 107.73 19.61
12 IOC 2.02 14.29 -0.07 157.45 35.40
13 GPI 1.94 24.50 -1.36 61.56 17.40
14 DNDN 1.92 18.60 0.00 347.16 20.48
15 JCG 1.88 28.10 0.01 50.82 18.40
16 IMA 1.88 11.50 -0.57 63.14 30.85
17 TPX 1.85 16.20 -0.49 56.84 11.12
18 MTH 1.83 20.30 -0.72 57.35 19.15
19 DIN 1.59 20.00 -4.07 121.63 25.62

GET BIG (possible big cap long set ups)

No. Ticker Hybrid Change (Daily) Hybrid Score Market Cap
1 ITT 11.50 2.52 8,133,391,152
2 CAJ 10.39 2.55 35,082,590,940
3 NOK 22.60 2.55 47,019,346,542
4 STT 10.30 2.57 10,423,026,517
5 COL 11.16 2.59 5,951,160,391
6 K 10.59 2.82 16,600,130,608
7 ERTS 35.68 3.08 5,541,614,317
8 APH 31.45 3.26 5,011,499,461
9 ACL 10.14 3.26 25,289,737,607
10 CTSH 27.63 3.28 5,608,268,669
11 WIT 29.89 3.39 9,967,966,147
12 LO 17.75 3.45 10,181,722,340
13 SYT 18.31 3.49 18,153,208,883
14 IBN 38.89 3.50 9,007,205,280
15 JNJ 29.78 3.53 160,813,967,482
16 HRS 17.49 3.56 5,779,367,856
17 ATVI 28.42 3.66 12,594,955,947

NOTABLE MOVERS (stocks that were flagged as possible longs, market cap under 10bill)

No. Ticker Hybrid Change (Daily) Hybrid Score Market Cap
1 ZQK 62.86 2.85 237,396,820
2 CSTR 60.11 2.93 655,080,697
3 BCRX 58.70 2.92 84,712,180
4 NVTL 52.68 3.42 192,571,319
5 HEB 48.88 3.32 44,895,311
6 VRX 47.67 2.85 1,801,094,595
7 NLC 46.89 3.54 1,583,706,790
8 CNQR 45.36 2.66 1,231,779,161
9 MANT 44.63 3.50 1,196,527,297
10 CMTL 43.92 3.67 973,701,033
11 CBT 43.88 3.41 831,508,777
12 LNC 41.97 2.74 4,045,484,871
13 PETM 39.05 3.81 2,411,434,246
14 IBN 38.89 3.50 9,007,205,280
15 ZRAN 38.33 3.14 321,329,752
16 VAR 37.89 2.62 4,612,086,391
17 NG 37.67 3.07 379,797,270
18 FORM 36.82 3.01 812,962,444
19 LINE 35.83 2.54 1,836,716,715
20 ERTS 35.68 3.08 5,541,614,317
21 SNDK 35.22 3.11 2,099,895,770
22 AXE 34.73 3.22 1,177,696,571
23 ELNK 33.33 3.12 843,060,647
24 CPWR 32.68 3.41 1,649,049,362
25 SWIR 32.02 3.34 156,718,425


MOMENTUM SHORTS
(possible short sales. stocks rolling over on accelerated volume)

No. Ticker Hybrid Change (Daily) Hybrid Score Volume Score Price
1 RMBS -25.11 1.67 5.00 12.02
2 FCL -18.75 1.82 4.00 26.90
3 CRZO -14.40 2.14 5.00 16.39
4 GMXR -14.01 2.21 5.00 13.18
5 VNDA -12.64 2.28 5.00 11.20

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Brand Nubian – Slow Down

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fuhaFdBuwp4&feature=PlayList&p=1694D39C67B95BD3&playnext=1&playnext_from=PL&index=23 550 400]

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Off To Mexico

Instead of playing around with stocks, I’ve decided to press my luck with a global pandemic, by way of roaming the ghettos of Mexico with large diamond rings and chains upon my person.

My recommendation, regarding stocks, is to cover your shorts and be an American, by way of long equity exposure. By now, you should be sick and tired of my rants, always claiming victories, despite specious evidence of losses. Just know, “The Fly” wins all the time, even when his positions “death dive” on no news.

As you know, I like the semis, due to their “non-retarded” ways. Some names worth investment include: OVTI, AMKR, RFMD, ATHR and SPIL.

Finally, I have another urgent matter to attend to, which, as a result, unveils the insignificance of trading stocks and winning stupid internet bravado battles. Remember, stocks are for asshats, but life is for fucktards.

Words to live by.

NOTE: Into the bell, I will add to my death merchant position: FTK.

NOTE II: A shot out to Lord Gint for his terrific call on PL. Muchos gracias.

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GET OFF MY PROPERTY

Japanese machinery orders came in better than expected. Despite stories of freight ship clogging the arteries of popular Asian ports, LCD manufacturers are bitching about supply shortages, due to big DEMAND in China. AUO is your play.

Everyone is obsessed with secondary offerings and how terrible it is for stocks. Says who, fuckface?

The fact that companies are able to go to market to raise capital is a fantastic.At the end of the day, most of you are simply overzealous clapping gay men, with rocks in your head and clouds beneath your shoes.

While it’s true, “The Fly” is getting taken to the woodshed on FTK; it’s also true, the battle is not over, just yet. The bear case for FTK is need for capital. They are burning through 2mill per quarter and have a bond payment due in August. At the present, they have 9mill in cash/line of credit. Without a doubt, they will need to raise capital. However, I do not doubt for a second their ability to raise cash.

The capital markets are open to everyone. Come one, come all. Take some money and spend it on cocaine biscuits and office building built from lemons.

With CLRT up, I like SFE here. Remember, SFE is a deep value play, who owns more than 50% of CLRT.

For the most part, stocks are just chopping people up. There is no clear direction and it is dangerous, as fuck, to lever up and take a strongly biased position. Most of my longs are weak today. But, my fall is cushioned by a 35% cash position. Instead of using such said funds to short stocks, I will wait out this period of indecisiveness and use such said funds to buy the dips.

I was going to buy a basket of biotech stocks, ahead ASCO. But my appetite for small hand grenades has waned since last night.

In closing, the market needs a catalyst to go higher. Right now people are obsessed with “going away in May,” mainly because they are brainless walking suits. Pick and choose your spots carefully, while having a light market weighting. Once the correction ends, you will regret being short. In my opinion, it makes more sense having a heavy cash position, readying to buy dips, than hedging with shorts.

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Slippage

The market has a bad vibe to it, over the last few days. The market isn’t getting rocked; but at the same time, it is slowly bleeding out.

From tech to cre to banks to oil, the market has punched the livers out of a variety of names, particularly those of the small cap variety. The best sector in the market has been agriculture chemical stocks, like MOS, AGU and POT. But, they can’t keep going higher, while everything else is flaking out.

Don’t get me wrong, I am not declaring the end to the bull run. As a matter of fact, I have no desire to short stocks. I am suggesting to be mindful that a correction is at hand and it may continue, until there is a catalyst to shoot higher.

With my money, I bought some PL and will likely add to some of my loser positions, prior to the market close.

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