Stuff Your Fat, Stupid Faces

Nothing says “look at me, I’m an American,” like a fucking restaurant filled with fat fuckers. Looking over the year to date gains of some eatery stocks, one might conclude that this fat country has an eating problem. Hmmm.

CMG+ 185%

RUTH +153%

KKD +140%

DIN +119%

MRT +105%

BJRI +100%

Why are these stocks up so much?

Answer: people are gluttonous pigs.

In all seriousness, people really are gluttonous pigs and they swarm to new restaurants.  Where I live, Mrs. Fly and I poke fun at the locals, whenever a new restaurant opens. They literally wrap a line outside of any new restaurant, around the corner, as if food was in scarce supply. The question you have to ask: what’s the next one to go?

How about new issue BBRG?

Sure, why the fuck not? Everyone is head over heels stupid over Mexican food, when Italian is clearly the better choice. Plus, they don’t have any stores in California or NYC. Think expansion.

From the last earnings release, here is their outlook

We are providing the following outlook for the full year 2010:

• Revenues are expected to be in the $342.0 million to $345.0 million range
• Total comparable restaurant sales are expected to increase by approximately 1.5%
• Five restaurant openings, including two BRAVO! and three BRIO
• Modified pro forma diluted earnings per share of $0.72 to $0.75, reflecting an annual increase of 80.0% to 87.5% from the full year 2009

NOTE: I initiated a position in BBRG today.

I bought BBRG (the next CMG), DMND, REXX and KBH.

Ask me if I’m scared.

A record amount of mutual funds are underpeforming this market, due to poor market timing. Go read the data. Because of this, I suspect there will be a rush to conform, over the next two weeks. The market should end a strong note, then sell off in early 2011. By the way, the iBC crew will be issuing their joint 2011 predictions within two weeks time. Here were last year’s predictions for 2010.

Again, in my opinion, fund managers will look to position in names that have worked in 2010; but not ridiculous shit like NFLX. Names like DMND, WRLD and PFCB may attract some buyers. By the way, I have the best screen known to mankind, regarding these year end plays, over in The PPT.

Should the market sell off today, I will buy into the dip. Despite the very high readings in The PPT, I believe there are greater forces at play here that lend to the artificial nature of this bull run. Should we be gunning higher, amidst this Euro-shit? Of course not. However, since when does this market adhere to laws of reason?

Do not underestimate the power of herd thinking. That’s exactly what will power this market forward, going into 2011.

NOTE: PEP buying out WBD is incredibly bullish for beverage plays.

Let me explain this to you: nothing can stop this market, because all things priced in dollars are under assault. If you haven’t heard the news by now, the U.S. government, through the conduit of the IMF, will backstop the entire continent of Europe, vis a vis trillion dollar loan. Let that sink in for a minute.

Okay, time’s up. This is some seriously fucked up shit and I am sure goes against everything this country was founded on. Forget about your bullshit Austrian economic models. They mean nothing.”The Bernanke” is only interested in Zimbabwe style inflation.  Thinking about where the Dow should be: if the dollar drops by another 40% from current levels, you’d be nuts not to think it will not be above 14,000. Let that sink in for a minute.

Okay time’s up. I am not bullish because I believe the hype, like that idiot on teevee (which idiot, huh?). I am bullish because I have no choice. It’s obvious, the Federal Reserve is going “Lotso” on the world, enslaving people with dollars. You fucking sinners out there, betting on a decline, will be greeted with black flags at your surrender ceremony. We are going “full Dykstra” into the New Year.

In closing, in the future, talking apes will point towards the statue of liberty and say “those people were fucking idiots,” just prior to eating a “trove” of bananas. This is the era of Groupon, where nothing makes sense and everyone is at risk.

Enjoy it while you can.

Just a quick note, as I am busy creating art by way of proper asset management.

I sold out of GMXR and WFR because they fucking vex me. They are lazy stocks with psychopath CEO’s. I should have sold them when they popped; but I didn’t. Nothing says “look at me, I’m a fucking asshole,” like holding a stock due to sentimental purposes. So, I sold them.

I blew out of THQI, in order to book the win. A big win it was, indeud.

With the proceeds, I repositioned my portfolios, rather drastically, adding  to CLF, KBH, Q and CCJ. One of these stocks is my largest position. However, I don’t feel like telling you fucking ingrates right now.

My advice is simple: use today to cut loose losers and add to winners or stocks that you feel are ready to move now.

NOTE: I added to my REXX position, in an effort to squeeze the shorts FTK style.

I bought 100,000 Q, 20,000 CLF and 10,000 KBH.

UPDATE: I added to my CCJ position.

Disclaimer: Bet against “The Fly” and lose your house.

Feel free to put caviar relish on your eggs this morning, for you can afford it. Had you listened to me, over the past 5 years since I began blogging, you made a great deal of money. Coincidentally, had you listened to me yesterday, you will be making a great deal of money today.

Off to the races, young boy. Off to the races.

UPDATE: I sold out of THQI for a nice, jolly, profit.

I will not warn you again. Therefore, let this be your final warning: Santa Claus is coming and his reindeers are going to bite your faces off. You can talk all the shit you want about “ominous this” and “scary that.” However, at the end of the day, you’ll be getting punched in the face with Portuguese dinner plates, not me.

“The Fly” reserves his finest stock market moves for December through February. So you know, I consider these months the most important months of the year, as an investor. The final month closes out the year. And, the first two months of a new year sets the tone. I’ve always managed to rip tits during this time of year, partly due to my God-like demeanor. The other parts have much to do with my “Space Alien Magician” ways.

Once again, just in case you’re reading this blog for the first time ever: I don’t fucking lose, ever. And, moreover, I don’t fucking like you very much. Let that tide you over until you wake up late for work tomorrow morning. One more thing before I go: quit reading my website dressed like a fucking harpoon maker. This is a tier one blog, only reserved for the finest of gentlemen. If you do not own a top hat, I suggest you ask a family member to buy you one for Christmas. You should be dressed to impress, suit with tie (the official uniform of business), at all times, even on the weekends—whenever you read iBankCoin.

More on this shit, along with other things, tomorrow.

I’m not thinking about today’s sell off, as I refuse to get sucked into the vortex. Yes, today was an ugly day with broad declines. It’s true the CDS market is going bonkers, clamoring for a euro crisis. It’s also true the Wikileak guy is targeting banks (see BAC). However, and this is a big however, Santa Claus is coming.

You are fucking fooling yourself if you believe the rally is dead. There are loads of people out there spending oodles of coin on meaningless shit. Traders don’t have time to gloom and doom. Believe you me, I will NOT be positioned heavily long into January, as I intend to take profits and position for an early 2011 drop. But this is not the time to bet against Bearded Clams, and things of that nature.

Having said that, I like the seasonality of KBH here, up 19 of 22 years in December for an average return of 9%. Everyone hates the homies; therefore, I endeavor to buy them.

In closing, I lost about 1% today, cutting my year to date gains down to just 46%. In order to punish myself for today’s underperformance, I will dine  at a 2 star Michelin restaurant this evening, instead of 3.

I bought 10,000 KBH.

Disclaimer: POMO