The yen is ripping higher again. Some people, like Hugh Hendry, believe it is heading for $60, due to massive repatriation of capital by big multi-national Japanese companies. By doing so, a domino effect will ensue and a total and complete collapse of the Japanese economy. I have no idea if this will occur. However, there are people putting billions of dollars into this theory.
So far, the market is acting as if nothing happened today, trading listlessly without any semblance of passion. My AKS position is up, thanks to AA. I bought it because I thought it could outperform in a bad tape, so far, so good.
My TLT position is ripping higher too, which represents about 25% of my assets. I believe it will trade above $110 by Thanksgiving.
Speaking of which: by no means will I have short positions going into Thanksgiving. If you’ve been reading me for more than 1 year, you know “The Fly” is a HUGE fan of the Turkey Gods. They are powerful and make equities go higher. So, all of my bearish sentiments must be resolved, over the next 2-3 weeks.
I shorted more MELI this morning, based upon the idea that retarded stocks must kneel before profit takers, at some point, similar to what is occurring to the shares of FFIV.
Bill Ackman took stakes in both JCP and FO. The JCP is interesting because of what they did to LIZ. In a nutshell, they bought all rights to the Claiborne brand, thanks to the ineptitude of the LIZ management team. Then, they pulled Claiborne “gear” from Macy’s, in an attempt to lure old seahags to shop at JCP. You know, those who are loyal to the Claiborne brand. I am sure they will make a killing using this strategy.
In closing, foreclosures are being halted across the country, because the paperwork is faulty. Potentially, this can cause a whole new crisis, as the owners and bag holders of MBS can now sue JPM, BAC, WFC or whoever, for selling them mortgages that were not legitimate. One thing is for sure: Halting foreclosures is HORRIBLE for the housing market, as it leaves the cancer in place to fester.
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The Fly is GOD!
Making more money short NFLX; making more money long TITN; blah blah, you know the story.
It also lets the “broke” “homeowner” remain in place “free” a few more years, no?
Country will need a new name soon: Freerydaaaaa
Flag will be an overweight dude on the crapper with an iPhone in his hands.
Agreed, it’s a stealth stimulus to the homeowner from the banks. Probably good for the economy, in a twisted fashion, as zombie banks subsidize retail spending.
VXX good one
So short it
At least I would have money shorting it
Banned
Did Trish Reagan gain 10lbs this week?
We are in ONE heck of battle royal right now….Eur/USD dropped down to test uptrend and the true believers in QE for everyone bought it…we are just starting the daily fixing time of the eur/usd which is normally a risk off on Friday. This market may wait to see if the weekend meeting will put the Muzzle on Ben Mr. QE…Japan could really have that problem if Ben doesn’t give up his “Playbook”, the Depression didn’t have Japan in this state……For Mainland China returning, we did get a 3% move up, but it gets stuck in that “Limit Up” stopping of certain stocks, the Copper Miners all got Limit Upped so no profit taking could happen. The Shanghai Futures had copper up, but no where near limit prices, and it pulled off of highs towards the close. What was interesting was the weakness in wire/rebar….Iron Ore Spot China/India was up strong…but I have to wait until Monday to see if demand follows that pop…..and for EVERYONE’s Favorite, lol, China Billet Prices…only four ports had up prices, everyone else flat…and the up price not that strong…imho, for Japan…either they intervene again or WE finally say “shut up Ben”, POMO is killing them.
huh?
Oh my, you talked about rebar. Someone will mock you for that.
Geoduck, lol, totally use to that….
Bad paperwork? Do the lawyers who did the paperwork still get paid? What about their paralegals?
Gooey – They’re working in India with the rest of the 17.1% underemployed. Re: your comment on the previous post about it being better that they don’t have jobs. Wait until they’re in the streets and they’re rolling your Bentley. It won’t sound so efficient then.
Fly is 100% right on this one. It’s a big problem. No demand, no hiring by SMB’s and the next step is major social unrest. If you think the Tea Party folks are angry, wait a couple of years with under-employment above 20% or 25% and see what real angry social unrest is about.
2 years is the timeframe I am putting on it too. I figure in 2 years we will have 20-25% real unemployment. Even though the numbers from the gubment will still show under 15%. The dollar will completely collapse under the pressure of europe and japan collapsing. And then WW3 begins with earnest. It is not gonna be a pretty picture, but that is what’s coming.
People like J will think I’m nuts for saying this stuff, but it is now a real possibility. The part that really sucks is that this society is also on the edge of collapse. Making a major economic downturn, a HUGE problem for the continuation of the society.
This will be like the great depression, but much worse because of the lack of community in our society.
Good luck with your trades people. I am beginning to think we never trade down again due to the debasing of the dollar.
Buy ruger, smith & wesson stock?
Have you had a bad week ?
Find yourself a nice small town preferably 20 miles out from the nearest population center holding more than 15-20,000 people and hole up. At least 80-100 miles from anything holding a few hundredd thousand or more. Find a little town where people know what it means to take care of each other when the chips are down. Look for a little place that might have a sign or two advertising a benefit dinner for a person with no insurance, and where the local church is full on Sunday morning. Settle in and get involved in what goes on there, become part of the community. It will take care of you when the going gets rough.
As to owning RGR and SWHC, I think a person will be better served owning the product itself rather than the company. You can’t shoot any venison with a piece of paper. Said paper is also rather useless when the pus explodes from the festering zit of the nearest big city. Maybe not Armageddon but it’ll sure be hell on earth for a while.
PS…………It says somewhere in the Bible that at the end, a piece of bread will buy a bag of gold. …….just sayin……….. y’all have a great day now. 🙂
Fly, when you say 25% of your assets are in TLT, is that referring to your managed accounts or your personal accounts? From your previous posts, it appears you are mostly in TZA/VXX in your personal accounts. You have been quite bearish on this market even through this melt up, but it seems like you might pull the plug on your VXX/TZA positions soon? I agree with your Thanksgiving theory, but the markets have shown you in the last month or so that nothing is certain anymore. I think this market can keep stair stepping higher over the next 2-3 weeks up to the election. But if it does, I would not be surprised by at least one nice correction afterwards, maybe not 10% or more, but 6-7% easy. And then we go higher again?
It seemed too obvious and too easy when many people were calling for a major correction starting in September (and it wasn’t just you Fly). Your theory made sense, but it did not pan out. And it looks like October will be decent so far. So maybe the “sell off” happens in late November/December?
I am 100% cash right now because I cannot make sense of this market. I am very skeptical of this rally because it seems like it is mostly based on the QE2 prospects. But I am also not willing to short because of the way the big banks and the Fed can intervene and prop up the markets. At the very least, I do believe we have hit a bottom at 1,010. And I think that bottom has now moved up to 1,100 or so.
I also hate all politicians. Man, I am not too hopeful about our generation’s future (I am 40 yrs old). But my kids’ and their future grandkids’ are royally fucked. Very sad. God help us all.
No. Your kid’s grandkids will be well run by the efficient Chinese government through prosperity. But your kids will have something more like Mad Max if things stay on the current course.
I guess I need to make sure my kids and their future grandkids can speak Mandarin. At least they might have a fighting chance if they do? I thought Spanish was the second language to make sure our future generations should learn, but not so anymore. Mandarin is it.
DJIA is starting to work on 12K today
QEII market
im in 2 1/8th allocations in VXX today. one at 15.78, one at 15.65.
If everyone’s really so confident its going to zero, then why dont you come in and try to short it? Chicken?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4T_2mUbne38
WTF? Man, not so sure that was a wise move. Even Fly now says his VXX is no longer a hedge. Are you doing it because you want to “short” the market? We may see some “dips”, but the fear is no longer there with The Fed acting as a backstop. VXX is not going to behave like you think it should. The last few months should have taught you that.
Bad move. Is that 1/8th allocation based on your overall trading porftfolio or a certain % of it? Stop avg down now and try and get out at breakeven at this point. Stay in cash if you are so inclined to be bearish. The fear is no longer there short term. VXX is broken. PERIOD ! All bears, listen up. I agree that fundamentals do not justify this rally, but the tape is what it is. Fly even said that in 2-3 weeks he needs to make a decision about whether to finally be long or stay short the market in his personal accounts. Fly is an excellent trader. So at the very least, his statement should have made you pause about initiating new “short” positions. What is wrong with being patient and being in cash? It is almost like some people have a gambling addiction to always being “in” the market, be it short or long.
Movie Name: Apocalypse Now (1979)
Quote:
Photo Journalist: “One through nine, no maybes, no supposes, no
fractions. You cant travel in space, you cant go out into space,
you know, without, like, you know, uh, with fractions – what are
you going to land on – one-quarter, three-eighths? What are you
going to do when you go from here to Venus or something? Thats
dialectic physics.”
Actually, I went short VXX in the premarket at 16.36. It appears to be working out nicely. Also, I think you mean 1/4th.
Good for you, I think this trade will work out very nicely for you short term. Just make sure you do not get too piggy with your gains. You are sitting on some 6% gains already in less than than 6 hours. Nice !
I would love to spend hours on a very articulate post summing up what’s happening in this world but instead I am fucking speechless at what is currently going on. This is UNFUCKINGBELIEVABLE! I am embarrassed and ashamed that I have the same DNA as the fucking idiots in charge of this country.
-heading to Moab this weekend for MTB race. At least those fuckers there know how to live.
Yeah it’s like were getting QE’d in the II hole!
Very nice!
Lots of technical resistance ahead. Notably 200 wk MA. We have tested in once (April’10) and probably will again here soon.
“Resistance” is nothing more than a 10-letter word. It means absolutely jack shit to this market.
The foreclosure scandal is nothing more than a strategy the Fed is using to keep distressed property off the market in an effort to keep housing prices more stable. This approach is akin to putting the terminally ill cancer patient (Housing) into a coma in hopes some miracle cure (QEII, III, etc, +Time+pixie dust) will come along. There will be no miracle cure. This will eventually end badly. Until such time…the market parties like it 1999.
More like hiding the dead pandemic patients in a shady warehouse outside of town and saying that they are fine, so that they can’t be counted in the statistics.
Yes, bad news for the housing market.
They are pulling off the band aid very slowly when it needs to be ripped off.
The pain will go away faster as will the bottom.
Plenty of freeloading homeowners here in Florida not paying their mortgage (the advice given by their attorney) and living rent free. This hurts everybody.
What a country.
They are living rent free in all of our heads
Some of those non-mortgage payments are being “saved” or used for current consumption – actually making thigs look better than they are.
The ES is in continual melt up and the correlating stocks are going nowhere.
The negativity on this board is palpable. Looks like there are no people positive on the future anymore. I figure that means we go up perpetually, until all the negative ninnies are proven correct, and we have total collapse.
Quite sad really.
One thing I know for sure. When the collapse is near, like a few weeks away, we will all know it is coming straight ahead, and there will be nothing to stop it.
I agree 100%. There is a lot of expectation built in to this market now with QE2. At this point when you make a trade, you are really betting on QE2 and not much else. If the Fed comes out with no new actions on “stimulating” the economy, then the floor will drop out big time, and the bears will be vindicated. And if they come out with some “aggressive” action, then they have put a bottom to this market, whether you agree with it or not, and the markets go up still short term and intermediate term, and the bears will get slaughtered. Which way do you want to bet? If you want to bet, make sure it is money you can afford to loose, because at this point it is gambling.
mike. theres a deeper vision for this economy,and its the ruination of social security for the people of my age,all the way up to the ones that are about to collect their first check. so everyone should expect at least 5-7 more yrs of this shit. you can’t create food, clothing,shelter,and a gdp out of thin air,or on a printing press. funny,these peeps with all their fucking degree’s,an notorized jobs,couldnt create there way out of a paper bag………instead of making a new history,they dwell on past history,and study the fuck out of it so much,that they think they can maneuver around past mistakes to avert present ones.it wont work,times are way different.
Technology is the answer to negativity. Robotic surgeons and diagnoses, Fusion power, efficiency gains. Asimo’s like Rosie from The Jetsons.
Pay a bonus to smart people who reproduce.
Pay a bigger bonus to anybody who has NO kids. This world has 3X
too many people.
Having children is the most selfish thing anyone ever does. Especially in the current environment. If you want kids, adopt!
WTF? Are you for real? Do you have your own biological kids? I think Fly does. I am sure he thinks the world of them, and so he should. I do mine. Fuck whatever the market is doing to you right now, but your own kids are 100% of what matters right now. BTW, I agree with adoption 100% if you are having trouble having kids. We did, but thankfully through the miracles of science we were able to have our own kids through fertility treatments. I know this is so off-topic to a blog like this, but when someone makes a comment about kids like this, I just felt I needed to respond.
No, it’s only selfish if you have genetic problems such as low IQ. Go watch Idiocracy idiot!
Wonderful cinema Idiocracy. Aren’t we there yet?
“When the collapse is near, like a few weeks away, we will all know it is coming straight ahead,”
If we all knew that there would be no collapse.
One minute peacefully serenity; next minute you’re burried in 75′ of snow
“One thing is for sure: Halting foreclosures is HORRIBLE for the housing market, as it leaves the cancer in place to fester.”
Yah, but for now all the scum-squatters with free houses can spend that extra money in the economy, on ipads, beer, porn, netflix and shit. It’s a trailer-trash Bull Market- Yeehaaa!!
A realtor friend of mine here in Central Florida tells me stories all of the time re the foreclosed homes.
The occupants do stuff like pour concrete down the toilet and drains, steal the copper with the A/C, punch holes in the walls, use the wood floors or carpeting as a toilet, etc.
Not all of course, but enough to make one angry.
This amount of complacency is just calling for a sell off. VIX down 5.5% after some bad numbers. Again.
Good point on free loaders buying ipads. It’s like that movie idiocracy, only real.
I absolutely love the first 10 minutes of that fim!!
Government not private business is the only conduit capable of instituting game changing economic development that has and will continue to make this nation great. FDR did it with the New Deal and Eisenhower did it with the Interstate Highway System. Sometimes spending (tax based) is needed to revitalize a Country when the free market system doesn’t have the courage to put their balls on the chopping block. No not deficit spending …. funded programs from higher taxes on those that reap the benefits or a broad based tax that doesn’t inflict pain and hardship on the masses. Time to cowboy up unless you want to remain in the doldrums for 10 years ala Japan.
http://politics.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2009/02/05/eisenhower-interstate-highways-offer-a-road-map-for-obama-stimulus.html
> Since November, the news media has made countless comparisons between Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal and Barack Obama’s plans to invest in the nation’s infrastructure. Amid all of the commentary about the New Deal, however, we’ve lost sight of another landmark reform enacted by Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1956—the interstate highway system. Ike’s endorsement of the highway program also serves to refute a conservative article of faith that federal infrastructure investments merely waste taxpayer money—and that tax cuts are the only acceptable policy if the nation wants to unleash America’s economic potential. The experience with Ike’s program just doesn’t support such a narrow and limited view of the efficacy of federal power. <
You need some high-speed trains like China has.
We need a new power grid strung with superconducting wire (AMSC) that retains rather than bleeds power as it moves across the network … one of the biggest wastes of energy in the country that no one talks about.
http://news.discovery.com/tech/ginormous-bus-straddles-road-drives-above-cars.html
Some of these too.
More nuclear plants, and more for fusion research. Specifically polywell fusion.
You have to admire China … they are attempting to build a modern/efficient economic power and using our capital to fund their national development. Our multinationals generate decent profits for 20 years and US consumers get addicted to the Socialist Teet of cheap goods until China no longer needs our investment and know how … War? Who needs war … they will win economically unless we and our multinationals realize before it’s too late that we’re just a means to end and long term we should help ourselves and not them.
yep..
Oddly Kore has signed a deal for their grid but not America …
Korea
I just bought some treasury zeros over par.Negative yield but triple A
Don’t you own a mattress?
funny you say that.old italian woman comes in,gives the old lady a hundo bill…….she looked at it had no strip,she laughes and tries to say “MATRESS”,old lady says everyone was laughing. i say whos really laughing
TURKEY DAY MURDER: http://www.ibankcoin.com/peanut_gallery/index.php/2010/09/26/black-swan-meets-black-turkey/
crickets?
My post was meant to stimulate thought and discussion not end it … So sorry!
What’s needed for now is something like the “Tree Army” my grampa was in during the depression. Promise whoever is interested (no matter how dumb or useless they are), food, and almost no pay. But get them the shovels, materials, and equipment to work on your infrastructure, national parks, and such.
After being unemployed for so long, I bet you would have a million+ volunteers.
Soft commodities lock limit up…. 100$ Tomato becoming a reality?
I have a tomoto in my house that I’ll FedEx to you for $100.
Even Oats are up big.
I hope Fly has an extra stock of oatmeal somewhere.
you can fit around 15LBS in a 5 gallon sealable bucket.
Wild rice, quinoa, not bad to have a couple 5 gal pails in the basement somewhere.
Does that mean PepsiCo is a buy? lol.
SOLD! Please send it to the central park zoo as I am homeless right now and have been wandering around posing as a tourist to sleep in the ‘wonders of Africa’ exhibit at night.
It’s on its way. Hang in there bud! Just donate the $100 to your favourite science fiction author as a contribution in my name. When I was a homeless zoo-hider, I collected shed fur from the musk ox exhibit to make a little warm nest to sleep in behind the orangatang poo-dumpster. I highly recommended it with winter coming and all.
Get on the train shitsticks oil going to 300, SP to 1350 and all the AG stocks to a million by thanksgiving!
You forgot gold at 3000.
hehehe joe terranova.hehehehehe” fast way to lose money show”roflmao
Here’s the best headline of the day:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39561053/ns/technology_and_science-space/
Probably QE2 related.
Yo horatio. You called?