iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,441 Blog Posts

To Bake or Not to Bake?

Most of you are perma-bulls, pretending to be “technicians.” So please, spare me with the details of how awesome you are, with regards to this run. Frankly, broken clock trading works on both sides of the spectrum, every so often. Let me see you bob and weave this market, like I have for over 15 years, then get back to me with lessons from your alleged pearls of wisdom.

A good friend of mine runs a pretty big staffing company, specializing in IT. He reports: “vapor-lock on jobs, bro.” The jobs market is dead, unless of course you are being spoon fed federally sponsored job programs, which favors the poor over qualified, skilled workers. Things are wretchedly awful for him, much to my chagrin.

However, bad news could be good news, in a world where QE II is the elixir to all that is bad and evil. We could have a scenario where the numbers are bad, but the market trades up anyway. Naturally, the chart people, from the basement, will praise their bollinger bands, as to the reason why the markets kept going up. But, if I might intervene with a bit of logic: your methods exclude any notion of mean reversion, which is the sweetest part of investing to begin with. Let’s just agree to disagree on methodology and market bias. Always remember, while you might be right today, “The Fly” will toss you off a building, just prior to snatching your man-purse, tomorrow.

I’ve been doing this for too long, successfully, than to even contemplate the idea of you giving me financial advice.

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64 comments

  1. drummerboy

    yea ok FIG MOTHERFUCKER

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  2. xxxHuggieBearxxx
    xxxHuggieBearxxx

    I am praying for a terrible jobs number so my longs explode in their full glory

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  3. drummerboy

    BOB AND WEAVE……………….INDUEDLY

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  4. AI

    agree 100% is longer scheme of things everybody wins or looses the game is all about mean reversion and TIMING

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  5. Mr. President

    Our time will come.

    Soon.

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  6. A Monkey with a Stailness Steel Cock
    A Monkey with a Stailness Steel Cock

    Hows that AKS thing working for ya?

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  7. drummerboy

    great tune, brian eno….killer dude…chain me down….but still free

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  8. Mr. Partridge

    AA beat .. nicely

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    • gsavli

      AA meets expectations at PE over 50. And it’s been there for 2 years. After all those stimuluses and economic recovery. Jesus.

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  9. drummerboy

    looks like AA had a good Q

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  10. bloomberg

    “……….But, if I might intervene with a bit of logic”

    you dare use the L word???? there is no more logic. the estimates are so #$#@ LOW that every earning news will beat the estimates. for a change, I would like to screw that bitch of a market for once ….. I am running out of Vaseline and my butt is hurting like hell.

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  11. Vinnie

    George says that all the action by the Fed could result in stocks going much higher – an asset bubblicious. George Soros.

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  12. speedius

    I work in semi cap equipment (not KLIC). We are hiring for the first time in a while, but sadly, I take it as a sign of a top.

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    • Ben Bananake

      I supply companies like yours with components. So far new orders (not sales) have fallen about 50% this far into the month compared to last month. It’s almost like everyone was rushing to make their shipments last quarter and now things are really cooling off. We’ll see if this new trend holds up.

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  13. Mike

    Fly, it is not about being right or wrong, but about being too early or too late to the game. The last 15 years should have taught you that.

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  14. Maybe i'm wrong

    Your only as big as your last hit. Unless you go to your grave as a hit, you are considered a has been.
    Every business has a life cycle.. Something to think about. If you want to be remembered you have to be a legend. Like Ronald Regan, or a Billy Graham, “the fly”, for example.

    just for giggles

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  15. Surplusdroid

    Inverses oversold?
    Horatio is awakening from his slumber.

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  16. go2mars

    Check out the photo in the bottom left of this page related to surgery. Seems familiar from somewhere.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/10/07/AR2010100704254_2.html?hpid=topnews

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  17. noodle

    not advice

    just

    “shit is gonna get wacky”

    oil was 3 bux off the top today.. thats kinda wacky.

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  18. Le Fly

    Everyone is banned

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  19. Ricky Bobby

    Here’s the deal I’m the best there is. Plain and simple. I wake up in the morning and I piss excellence

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    • rando

      You only wish you secreted awesomeness constantly, I have to walk around with buckets to collect it like sap from the sugar maple tree.

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  20. HH

    Hugh Hendry: “I am dealing with things which are slow to develop. I have some young children and I recall we planted some seeds and I said to them, ‘This is going to grow into a beautiful flower.’ And every day we came out and we watered it, and after the fifth day they lost interest. They said, ‘Daddy, you’re making it up.’ And that’s the danger. If you’re pressed against the screen, watching every moment of it, you end up giving up.”

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  21. Mushroomz

    bake!! and get ya pop-cone ready

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  22. Suddsy B

    Great advice…per usual.
    Looking for some info how the PPT can benefit a Canadian?

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  23. alphadawgg

    Fly, you bring up a good point on mean reversion. It will happen at some point.

    However, I get the sense that the jobs data tomorrow has already been baked in. It should come as no surprise that many people’s expectations are for a bad number.

    Consider this: If it’s a good number that’s where the surprise will be—to the upside…..and the risk, therefore, falls more on those who are short or underinvested at this point.

    If it’s a bad number, as expected, then I think we do get that sell-off and depending on the severity of the number, it will most likely be contained to around a 5% correction. In that scenario, stocks should be bought, given the current market trend.

    Your humble correspondent is just saying….

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  24. 8

    But, IF I DID give you advice, it would be to add your own traffic cam wherever possible!

    New Database: Traffic Camera Revenue Exceeds Expectations
    http://www.kcrg.com/news/local/New-Database-Traffic-Camera-Revenue-Exceeds-Expectations-104268749.html

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  25. C_Farley

    “I love those calm little moments before the storm”

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gKjJKbgqf2A&p=63877E6C8B415F4F&playnext=1&index=55

    Gary Oldman killing it…..

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  26. Le Fly

    Everything is baked into thw ultimate free lunch dessert cake

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  27. TraderCaddy

    Private jobs in line.
    The early daytrade plan: Up financials (XLF)($$ flowing here the last 10 days), down semis (SSG)(MU didn’t help), and only God knows about the golds.
    Caveat: Just watch the dollar= buy everything if it goes down, sell everything if it goes up- would still see XLF,WFC,JOM,BAC as possible intra day longs.
    Need to layoff more Gov’t workers and cut their pensions. Make them contribute like private workers, and NO full retirement benefits before 62.

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  28. bubo

    The market will rocket higher seeing the numbers. Bears are screwed, including me :(.

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  29. C_Farley

    I just watched as we initially jumped negative after jobs report……then magically the dollar started going down bringing the market positive.

    Is the govment purposely using the dollar to dismiss yet more bad data??? Sure seems like it!

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