We are now at the highest level of underemployment since the depths of the credit crisis in 2009, at 17.1%. On that news, TLT is going higher and futures are improving. The market is QE 2in’ and the economy is an after thought.
Consider the following:
U.S. corporations do not care about the U.S. It’s true. Most of our big companies (thank God) conduct 70% of their business abroad. Do you think KO or CAT cares about some poor schmuck in Ohio? Ha! The underemployment issue is a political problem and it’s your neighbors problem. It has nothing to do with the stock market, at least not to a large degree.
I’m a HUGE supporter of globalization, despite the fact that it has destroyed large sections of my country. The way I see it: hey if they don’t care (D.C.) why should I?
TLT is upticking and the dollar is back in the dirt, based upon the idea that the Fed will spend another “trill” to improve underemployment by 0.4%.
In closing, aside from the stock market, do you realize your country is on the decline? Do you understand what is going on here and how this will affect your children/grandchildren? It doesn’t make any sense to spend another trillion or two to improve the jobs market by 0.4%. We need real stimulus through tax cuts. We need programs that will promote innovation, the financing of small businesses. I chide my good friend Jakegint for his passionate viewpoints regarding politics. He is a believer and I am not. But, believe you me, I want nothing more than to share his passion and get behind some good/honest leaders, who will help this country get out of its malaise. Look, we all know what needs to be done, in order to get people back to work. Sadly, I am not sure this country has the leadership to change direction. After all, corporate America is perfectly content with their soaring sales in China. We are nothing more than an afterthought.
NOTE: I am still bearish, more so than ever before. To hell with FFIV.
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Even more well said than usual, Mr. Fly. Bravo.
indeud !
Here’s an exeprt from the book:
After spending many years in Wall Street and after
making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking
that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!
I thinks that’s what exactly Fly was doing with this rally !!!
Hey! I live in Ohio
My condolences
“Consider how many more jobs small businesses would have created if they’d enjoyed the same terms we gave homeowners—easy access to 30-year, government-guaranteed loans at near-prime rates with no prepayment penalties.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704631504575531894174441102.html
Call me crazy but today I will short AAPL @290.
one day the law of large numbers will catch up to AAPL.
Apple is going to $1000.
Put that big boy Gov. Christie in charge.
He would clean house better than most IMO.
Stil looking for an intrday trade long WFC,JPM,BAC,MS,STI, and maybe MU has hit bottom here.
And Fed- don’t forget to crank the figure into your models, assholes.
I love Christie! Cancled a planned tunnel to the ‘island’ because he refused to tax his people anymore!…what a novel idea
Man you Americans are an unhappy bunch at the moment. But here’s the thing. As a Democrat, Hillary was a far better potential president and you went for the clown talking clap trap.
I understand the GOP deserved punished, but you also punished yourself by voting this deadbeat former community organ-grinder into office.
Hilary, or anyone, for that matter, would have done the same thing. There is no helping this economy, no matter who you put in charge. We are all doomed to failure now. It is just a matter of time. In my estimation, we have 2 more years of high unemployment and rising prices, before it all collapses. Then the real fun begins with riots in the streets and a completely valueless currency.
Does anyone consider that the reason the market does not sell-off is that hyperinflation is starting to be an economic reality that will not end until the complete debasing of the currency?
We are close to entering the favorable season for stocks and the Presidential cycle is also very favorable. Buy the dip. Bubblelisious.
Great post, Le Fly. It’s painted with a touch of conservatism. It’s a good look on you.
Until “Dear Leader” and his idealists change course/lose power, this market will be untrustworthy (and my 401k will remain in cash). The liberal/socialist/statist/”trickle up” ideal will NEVER work in this country.
the best gains are harvested in the stock market under democratic presidencies … so keep holding out in cash until a republican controls the white house and then go all in … mean reversion indeed!
They are talking an awful lot about unemployed people like me. Oh well I am getting used to it. Back to Family Feud.
I’ve been under-employed for 10 months now. But I still work 50-odd hours a week. Its a little retarded, but beats sitting at home watching my TZA loose another 4%.
“lose” not “loose” you idiot.
I will spell-check all my important internets postings in the future.
loose is a real word, just out of context, so your spell check won’t pick it up. Same thing with internets instead of internet. But I’m glad you’re working. My TZA is bugging me also.
Don’t get too smug Mr. President, the GOP is mostly the bitch of those same corporations Fly was explaining don’t give a shit about the US.
Not that two wrong parties make a right.
Mike Bloomberg for President!?
Bloomberg would be a good choice. We need more litigation and attorneys in the USA. By the way Walter,Esq. I can use a good thinking attorney like you suing everybody. Just call me. You know the number.
Bloomberg isn’t a lawyer.
neither are you
Why come not? Not that its such a privilege these days.
And your LSAT score was? Not to worry. To be one of my attorneys one doesn’t need to write well.
Ron Paul for President.
I know but he loves to sue, loves attorneys, and best of all loves taxes and to make rules for all to live by. My kind of guy. Now get out there and sue somebody. It’s good for the economy.
The solution to this is simple: Allow free movement of trucks across our borders,
and free movement of ships in and out of our ports, with one caveat:
Outgoing transportation vehicles and vessels may leave fully or partially loaded,
while incoming vehicles and vessel must be empty.
hahaha.
Not bad, not bad at all.
I wish I could quit caring, but I can’t. So I soldier the fuck on… finger on the switch at all times.
I’m hoping for a long weekend preceeding, full-on retard runup today. I will sell DUG shortly.
Oh man do i love the smell of Quantitative Easing in the morning…..mmmmmm boy
Nahhh – rolling over here, 98 % sure, my NDX chart says so! – LOL
Another Awesome Post…. you need to make a new category called “Heart Felt”
To the Point… I do share you exact sentiments!!!
“We need real stimulus through tax cuts.” You are wrong on this one.
the [idiot ii; son of idiot i] bush cuts were a big big mistake: just more give away stimulus when it was not needed at a time when we were spending very heavily on war and on anything. a tax increase – eliminating the bush cuts – would be very supportive of the dollar and improve our purchasing power. it is a republican thing to do; that mantra of tax cuts that is espoused by this new, stupid pander generation of republican politicians is wrong. no politician thinks for themselves any more; none has any balls. we are in a crisis and we cannot spend our way out of it. we need stability. we do not need rebates to spend on trinkets from china.
You are wrong Robert. Money flows away from where it is taxed most. What you need to do is slash your socialist spending, encourage technology development, and cut taxes. Be less over-regulated as a government.
Over-regulating.
wrong: a red herring statement.
Wow! Very nice summary of things at hand. Keep that lucidity flowing my man….
Our industry is still hiring workers and the work is stacking up. Caterpiller industries is building a new plant in gonzales, texas and should be up and running soon. We are sending people to singapore for work as well. Oil is king for now, even if our idiot president wants to hobble our country. We will get new leadership in november by voting out the morons who keep us unemployed.
Texas is not part of America
Neither is North Dakota…must be why there are ten thousand jobs in our state unfilled and people are sleeping in “Man Camps” out in the oil patch.
On a side note if you don’t want to live out in the sticks there is plenty of room here to start a business.
http://www.forbes.com/lists/2010/5/business-places-10_Fargo-ND_6147.html
(NB – please keep your critical remarks about middle America to a minimum at least until you have a job)
When Bush left office we were LOSING 765,000 jobs per month.
After 19 months of Obama and a Dem Congress we are GAINING
jobs monthly.
Proving once again: Republicans are the DUMBEST people on God’s Green Earth.
I am independent and despise all politicians. I am simply stating the obvious: what we are doing now is not working. Tax rates are too high.
ugh, so true!:
Capital Gains Tax Rates:
(28%)Collectibles (work of art, rug, antique, gold, silver, gems, stamps and others)
except, for the democrats, all politicians are bad
That almost seemed like a political statement. Well, at least is well supported. <:) I'm certain that there are no counter-veiling arguements. Good thing there are analysts like you out there. I assume that you mean Obama's policies of "continue to spend away the future of mankind" are the opposite of the dumbest thing to do. Right Riggy?
>>Most of our big companies (thank God) conduct 70% of their business abroad.<<
I'm pretty sure it's more like 50% for the S&P 500 overall, and 2/3 of that 50% is with Europe, which is as slow-growth as we are. So, the BRIC part of business is helpful (around 17% overall) and if the US and Europe grow GDP just 1.5% or so, overall profits can certainly grow more than that, but you wouldn't want to overestimate "the Asian effect" on overall SPX profitability.
CAT, KO, GE all derive 65%+ rev from overseas, just to name a few. Name a big American company and they are doing most of their biz abroad.
Yes, that’s true for those specific companies… I’m giving you an overall number for the S&P 500.
Ohio is a nice place, my next door neighbor forclosed on his house last week. I’m sure that will do wonders for my resale value next spring.
Youse guys are all nutz. Back to my cave.
Even more bearish since last month…BRILLIANT!!!!
Dr. Fly,
nice post…
Back too the markets – QEII is almost a sure thing… direction up..
Gold dip was bought… new highs next week…
long is the way to be… until it is not
buying vxx here,
Hey Fly…
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2010/10/08/paladinos_message_to_cuomo_come_out_and_debate_like_a_man.html
“Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it whether it exists or not, diagnosing it incorrectly, and applying the wrong remedy. “~ Ernest Benn
“Look, we all know what needs to be done, in order to get people back to work.”
Really? Do we really know what needs to be done? I’m not so sure. I don’t think cutting taxes is the answer to all our problems. I don’t see any quick fixes here. It will take time. As Ben Sobel said, “It’s a process”.
Cut taxes and put people back to work. It’s that simple.
yeah right; for the last 30 odd years it has been tried (both for individuals and corporations) and the result is growing income disparity and growing deficits. But i guess if you are a plutocrat there is no reason not to like the supply side.
Cut taxes to put people back to work, stop spending so much to keep taxes low without borrowing. Also, don’t let stupidity prevail (bad loans). It’s that simple.
Unemployment is just a sympathy index. The economy is more efficient if you don’t have that bottom 10% at work screwing things up. But sympathy gets the gubbermint types motivated to screw with things, which creates more unemployement when they tweak the economy with their interventions. Well intentioned though they may be, their marxist leanings do not help the economy.
I cannot agree. 17% is a high number.
I can’t agree with your last paragraph more. My big question is what happens when the world becomes patriotic and stops buying American?