A Huge Move is Coming

The Greek opposition is going to lose, by hook or crook. The entirety of the European cognoscenti is against the Greek left wing. To think the election is going to be fair and honest is laughable, at a minimum, hysterical at normal speeds.

If you are short, essentially, you are betting on a full collapse of the EU. The fundamentals do not matter right now, since there is 1,000 points up or down from current levels, based upon the recent friction. Be honest with yourself: do you believe the status quo, who’ve invested trillions of dollars on keeping this circus act going, is going to, all of a sudden, have a change of heart and let everything melt, pathetically?

Come on.

You, Sir, are delusional.

If I end up being wrong, and lose tragic amounts of coin, I will do so in baronial fashion. I do not bend and I shall not change my mind. It’s all or nothing and I am of the opinion that I shall have it all.

What the fuck was that? Serious, I want you fuckers to explain it to me, since I am obviously anomalous with stupid. What the fuck was that all about? We were looking real fucking good in the morning, THEN BAM!, the cocksuckers closed the window (no opportunity) on my piano fingers. My hands looked crippled, like Kaiser Soze and shit.

Ooh, then in the late afternoon, the market started to dive. It looked really bad and my friend started selling short; THEN BAM!, the fucking window collapsed on his neck.

There are no winners, other than the people who make psychotropics. I am not kidding you when I say “this shit is killing me.” It’s a process; but it’s happening slowly but surely. I can’t remember the last time when I slept more than 3 hours during the week. I sit up and watch the faces on the teevee. Then I read stuff, written by imbeciles. Then, I try to condense my thoughts into bloggeries, only to have my predictions get smashed to pieces by gorillas, stoned to fuck, on cocaine.

My office is a wreck, strewn with papers and graphs, research and mortgage documents–mad as hell scientist style. People call me on the phone and I pick up to say “fuck off”, then hang up. It’s the lifestyle of a psychotic. Don’t you get it? They are trying to kill off the people who know what they are doing (no Howard Hughes)!

There is only so much of this I can take. I am down to 6% cash, fully long in jerky stocks like YELP. How did my life come to this?

For the day, I was only raped for 1.1% of my coin, thanks in large part to the late day paint tape by YELPERS.

ALL MONEY, ACROSS THE GLOBE, IS FINDING SAFE HAVEN IN US TREASURIES.

Do you see how the SPY took a nosedive when TLT ripped higher? What’s odd about the move in bonds is that it happened on a day when the dollar was down and euro up. At this rate, we stand to give back all of yesterday’s gains, putting us in a “fag-box” ahead of the Greek elections.

Hey, look at the bright side, the Greeks will do the right thing, no?

Fuck my life.

Yesterday morning The PPT flagged OVERSOLD for SPY. So you know, it is a rare occurrence, with a flawless track record over the past 6 months (it was the 6 mo algo). This, alongside a variety of other factors, emboldened me to let loose some of my cash position to average down in some of my favorite names.

I adhere by certain laws, those of which that you find foreign. Where you believe government is too stupid to sustain status quo, I believe they are corrupt enough to do it. It’s all a game and the winner is the one who can play it best. Mind you, this game we partake in isn’t a one day event. It will last forever, long past when you are dead, buried under 6 feet of sediment.

I’d like to tell you that playing the game well is a result of hard work and ingenuity. Sadly, like most things in life, victories are to be had through genetic superiority or seizing an unfair advantage. Naturally, you can help cultivate your genetic talents by surrounding yourself with the right people and analytic tools. I’ve always found it to be of extreme priority to invest in myself, and more specifically, my business.

Hear me now, bold and clear, I am going to fucking win this battle; and when I do, you will regret the day you chose to bet against me– lose your house, lose your car, savaged by your wrongness–respectfully of course.

At the present, I am down 3.5% on TEX, -9% on MTW and -9% on YELP, so I averaged down in all three.

And, to up the level of egregiousness that I am currently operating on, I bought WFR for a dice roll, hearing some “joozy news.”

Okay, let’s recap recent events, starting with the good.

German, Finnish, Austrian and UK yields are spiking, as Spanish and Italian yields are flat to down. Scared money has been hiding in short dated “safe haven” sovereign debt. It needs to come out, in order to get the juices flowing again. The fact that German 2yr yields are +17% today is decidedly positive. The euro has stopped going lower, despite all of the negative news flow. And the dollar has started to soften, always a “risk-on” signal. Oil has been getting the stuffing kicked out of it, definitely a positive for a number of industries saddled with onerous input costs–due to expensive crude. Borrowing costs have plunged, making the Fed’s “Operation Twist” policy a massive success. Lastly and most importantly, despite the endless stream of bearish news and sentiment displayed by the media, stocks have been trading sideways for a few weeks now, possibly a sign of consolidation.

The bad.

On a whole, the global economy is slowing, including the fetus eating Chinese. The whole BRIC theme is a fucking joke. Brazil’s economy is in freefall mode, putting a big ol’ capital B in the BRIC being tossed through the global growth facade. Syria is in full-fledged civil war mode and our business with Iran is far from over. Free markets don’t exist anymore. We’re all on bath salts, zombies fueled by the generosity of desperate policy makers. The fact that we depend on the fucking Germans to do right by its fellow EU members is comedically tragic.

The Ugly.

The world hinges on Greek democracy, scheduled to be displayed this weekend. Ironically, the inventors of democracy might destroy their country, by exercising such rights. Should Greece unravel, it will bode poorly for other weak euro countries, possibly leading to the collapse of 17 nations–simultaneously. The Germans have no choice but to back everything and that’s not exactly ideal for their balance sheets. This all has the feel of “end game”, a story that ends with the bad guys winning. The worst of all is our dependence on policy makers and central banks to print money, in order to buoy the markets. Although I am looking for QE3, this is not a healthy investor environment, depending on those fucking assholes to reinflate our busted bubbles.

Gone are the days of normal economic cycles, which makes this market exceedingly hard to predict.

Enter the meat-grinder.

Yesterday the bears paraded through the streets of Wall, clad in burlap hoodies, florescent pink pants, made from velcro– topped off with plastic helmets. They were a vicious group, making bold statements in stentorian tones, atop large hills and grassy knolls.

Today, the mood changed, despite Spain, despite Greece, and they were muted.

I do not declare victory, for it’s just one singular trading day. After all, I was down a staggering 4% yesterday and I am plus 3% today, for a net loss of 1% since Friday. Over the past 7 days, I am up a petty 11% (I am certain the majority of you are up more), clearly a man who should be bet against and in size. Even though I haven’t endured a down year since 2001, successfully navigated through all sorts of disastrous markets, and because I am only +8% for the year, my opinions are merely happenstance, a nuisance of sorts who should be relegated to the outer reaches of the interwebs–undeserving of grandiose balls and midnight dinner parties.

I am just a simple man, traveling through time, in machines built in an era not from now, inking my superfluous thoughts for others to contemplate and discard as “comedic folly.” There will be down days, but with a little luck and generosity from the Gods, most will be up. I err by letting the opinions of others mean anything; but I too am victim to the emotion of anger. I get mad at a drop of a hat, fixed on doing bodily harm to numerous people across the globe. I’ve even went so far as to build a Space Orbital Cannon (OSC), now in phase 3 development, strictly to be used for offensive means. What can I say? Sometimes I am human.

In short, this is not a victory lap, for the run has only begun. Instead, it is a reminder of how grande your idiocy is, embarrassing and stifling on many levels. Please refrain from offering any form of financial advice in the future, as it might hurt someone who intently needs money.

Thank you and farewell.

NOTE: Like the work of art above, the music below doesn’t get any better. Only top shelf classics at iBankCoin.

Mortgages and refis are picking up volume, especially refis. Under the radar, a slew of regional banks have been skyrocketing, thanks to the refi boom. My preference is to find names trading under a price to book ratio of 1. But for the sake of showing you how “awesome and amazing” the mortgage market is right now, I will post a full list of winners over the past 3 months.

Here is the poster child of the refi bonanza, Elli Mae.

And here are the winners, as the market has been getting punched in its face. They don’t give a shit, honey badger style.

Back in 2002, I only bought regional banks and preferred stocks. The market was shit, but the refi business was booming–thanks to Greenspan. Don’t fall into the trap thinking the refi market can’t boom as the economy shrinks. It’s happened before and it’s happening now.

The news isn’t relevant now because it’s all rumor milling. The Fed is either going to initiate QE 3 or not. The gentlemen at Goldman, in a research note published today, put QE3 at a 75% probability. I tend to agree with them, but nothing is guaranteed.

Ideally, the central banksters should stop reflating and let the market clear. But to trade based upon that thesis is pure fantasy. Moreover, if you are relying upon governments to do nothing to make your shorts work, you are not qualified to invest on behalf of other people or yourself. Don’t you know they’re embedded? There is no turning back, once you’ve invested trillions in an ideology.

I’ve been doing this shit a long time, okay. Back in late 2007, I remember looking at massive losses in my shorts. I expected a banking collapse and positioned to benefit from such an event. Stubbornly, the market kept marching higher in late 2007, much to my bewilderment and chagrin. But I remained as cool as a cucumber, knowing my position was logical and most likely to be a winner. As soon as 2008 came, stocks dove, full retard style, turning my losses into monster wins. During that period, 75% of my trades were short sales, based upon free markets having to clear unprecedented losses.

Do you know why I am not short now and why it’s different today?

Answer: markets are not free.

After a good night’s rest (3 hours) and a hot cup of earl gray tea (honey & milk), “The Fly” is renewed, ready to accept fresh battle axes to the cranium–if need be.

I’ve forgotten yesterday’s nightmare and now fix my attention on several singular items. For example, I have to move inside of 3 weeks, yet haven’t packed a single box yet. Also, I’ve yet to secure movers. Back in the old days, my friends and I would get inebriated and move the stuff ourselves. However, those days are over, thanks to my desire to avoid hernia ruptures. On top of that, Mrs. Fly has about 2 months worth of renovations scheduled for the new house, which all but assures my life to be hell for the duration of the summer. So, oddly enough, my life isn’t going to get any better–than right now– for several months down the road. My losses are superfluous and mostly exaggerated obstacles.

I am teeming with gratitude to still have 5% gains for the year. It could be a lot worse, as you know.

There is too much noise on the internet. I find it to be a place best suited for trading gorillas, addled with personality flaws, interested in meaningless schoolyard antics–child’s play. I am going to sloooow things down a bit, focus more on longer term market calls, less on the caprices of day traders and market vagabonds. It is nearly impossible to swing trade these days, some do it with proficiency. Once upon a time, I specialized in short term trades, targeting the fastest and craziest stocks that were traded, until I blew myself up in a most horrendous stock market accident (no large marge).

Trading ahead of the Greek election is risky. There is always the chance the elections can produce a positive outcome, so it’s hard to remain bearish on the catalyst. After that is the Fed meeting, something that is sure to keep everyone on edge. After that, I’m afraid the market will be on its own, not exactly a desirable trading environment. The big move higher, if it’s going to happen at all, must occur within the the next three weeks. That’s what I am positioned for.