Black Summer Awaits

If the Fed partakes in an unsterilized form of QE, the markets will trade higher for the next 20 weeks. Sure, there will be pit-stops and walls of worry to hurdle over; but rest assured, asset prices will respond to an expansion in the money supply.

Should Ben cave into the idiot hawks, the markets will plunge.

Any questions?

The only reason why we’re not lower today is because of this week’s Fed meeting. It looked real dicey this morning; but there’s a bid in the market.

Forget about what “The Fly” is doing and concentrate on what’s important to you. My threshold for risk and danger is much higher than most, as evidenced by my proclivities to speed race in cars made from dynamite sticks. I just swung a -3% deficit to a +13% boom in two weeks. That’s fucking nuts.

Granted, it is my god given right to luxury and winsip, by lightening or through pressing a single button on a computer keyboard: I shall have my wins and have it served to my liking.

I am dealing with a mixed bag this morning. But I do not fear the market at all. It is stupid, filled with base participants who know nothing about the world and how it works. Some of these amoebas come to iBC to offer me financial advice. So funny.

Bottom line: QE3 means we go in the black for the entirety of the summer and beyond. Failure to inject liquidity will result in the immediate collapse of equity prices into black space.

Well this officially sucks. Apparently, the market wanted more than a stupid election win. The G20 idiots needed to come up with a plan. Instead of enjoying great success and a cocaine gorilla rally, we get classic sell the news, paired with black smoke, ash, and metal trading action.

Spanish and Italian yields are higher, as well as TLT. Commodities are lower, as well as the euro. And, Europe gave back a huge rally, with our futures fucking itself from +10 to -5.

Now it’s not the end of the world, mind you. We had a terrific run last week and the original buttfuckers are still in the euro; but if yields in Italy and Spain don’t drop soon, there’s not gonna be a fucking euro to stay in.

Yields above 7% are unsustainable, meaning: the ECB needs to start buying bonds right now else the worst case scenario will play out.

Once again, I am floored by European impotence.

Bottom line: today could get very ugly; but I am holding firm because nothing has changed. The policy makers will intervene at some point. It’s not a question of if, but when.

My position, as always, is for the status quo to succeed in fucking the world until armed revolt kicks them out. You’re never going to supplant the power elite through the ballot box. The fix is in.

Having said that, unless “they” want the euro to collapse, I don’t see how the Greek elections will change anything. The conservative party will win and markets will love it.

But how do we trade it?

If you are short ahead of this news, expect to lose a great deal of money next week. The amount of Rick Santellis in this tape is amazing. Following last week’s melt up, their tiny portfolios are in a very fragile/weazened state. The shorts will capitulate, if we trend higher next week.

But I want to sell the news.

If we leg up next week, I want to be a seller ahead of the Fed meeting. If the euro is “saved”, there is a chance the Fed will do nothing, even though they’d be stupid not to. Nevertheless, if I can get my year to date gains to +15% or more, I’d be a fucking idiot not to take some profits and chill out for the rest of the summer.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q29YR5-t3gg

Ignore the pessimists; they are fucking idiots. You must discern the difference between someone who only understands pain and someone who is able to enjoy the fruits of life, offering objective, clear, and concise, opinions on the markets. There are cretins out there who’ve been wrong, very wrong, for 4 years in a row, branding themselves as “Wall Street 2.0.” These creatures of ignorance are very destitute, desperate to undo their wrongness through the misery of others.

These are very disturbed people.

What we offer you at iBankCoin, for good or for worse, is objectivity. I have been very bullish, only because I knew the market was being sold off for superfluous reasons. Through the pangs of being wrong and the felicity of winship, “The Fly” is generous with his wisdom and stock market skill, one that is unmatched, anywhere, in the entire universe–for the direct benefit of his readers.

I walked into the fire without protection and came out the other end fully robed, sandaled–with mustache still intact. With today’s 1.7% gains, my year to date returns stand at 11.5%. Barring a full fledged calamity on Sunday night, my prescient declarations of victory stand with authority.

It is my belief, as well as the opinions of my close circle of investors, that the market is about to enter a phase of panic buying. This week’s rally was child’s play, merely erasing the folly of the misguided. When the momentum shifts, the shorts clad in burlap will be naked and crying for execution. This may only be a brief respite before the hammer drops. Or, this can be the beginning of the “summer sizzling” of the bears, slowly braised, served with a side of bath salts.

I choose the latter.

My cash position is 7%.

UPDATE: Thanks to the late day run in YELP, my gains jumped to 3.5% for the day–pushing my gains to over 13% for the year.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H1c3JNhB7mo

With some of the TEX proceeds, I bought NUAN and AVGO.

I sold out of TEX for a 4% gain.

You guys are hardcore bitches. I told you the market would be up Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. So I was off by one day; go fuck yourself. Hahahahah.

I am banking coin again, banging hard and with animal violence, on african jungle drums–involuntarily punching people in wheeled chairs in the fucking face. Eagerly, I await the Greek elections. Those idiots are about to buttfuck themselves, one way or another. If they vote for party #1, they lose. If they vote for party #2, they lose. What a splendid election.

The Field Marshals at the the Bundesbank have no choice but to eat dicks. Look for that to happen very soon, leading to a short squeeze of epic proportions.

In short, your calls for collapse have been met with stiff punches to the grill. You motherfuckers have no idea, whatsoever, what you are doing. The incompetence amongst the bear crew is flabbergasting. However, it’s worth noting, “The Fly” doesn’t flabber or gast. He just looks down at you fuckers, whilst drinking sweet ambrosia from his chalice, made from a human-fucking-skull.

Although I want to boast and taunt, I think my efforts today will be maximized by giving you a clinical analysis on what this bitch of a whore market is doing.

When I suggested in an earlier post that “this is the easiest, highest probability trade you will ever make” it was based upon the laws of science. When there is more supply of money in the system, asset prices go up. To argue about “diminishing returns” is pointless, since most of us are only interested in keeping our dicks exposed for a short while. To think the central banks would idly sit by and watch their economies get devoured by idiots in burlap suits was pathetically laughable. They call events like that “Black Swan” because they are rare occurrences, not likely to be predicted en masse.

Agree with me or not, it is my belief the “rumors” coming out about a G20 policy response is not only credible, but fact. Keep in mind, the central banks LOVE to fuck short sellers on option expiration days, to inflict mass pain. Tomorrow happens to be such a day. Look for more rumors, or actual statements, to come out soon, regarding “the mother-fucker of all bailouts.”

Earlier today, I alerted members of The PPT and 12631 of a rare occurrence, an OVERSOLD reading in 3x to the upside ETF, TNA. It flagged an OS reading on all four of our algos, despite the market being up. In the past, such a reading was met with frenetic moves to the upside, then a fade.

Have a look.

In my opinion, the correct trade here is to go against conventional wisdom: buy the whore, sell the orgasm.

For the day, I made 1.7%, putting me a touch under +10% for the year–still 10% off YTD highs.

UPDATE: Due to late day surge, TNA DID NOT close OVERSOLD on historical basis. However, it is still OS as of yesterday on 3,6 and 12 mo algos.

I believe, rather emphatically, the bears are being led to slaughter. I think you’d admit that for “end of global finance” conditions, the market has been behaving rather modestly, no?

I will discard this site from ideologues, if you don’t cut the shit out. I am not a fan of the Tea Party and couldn’t care less about the itinerary of Rick Santelli. The fucking Germans should appoint a field marshall to head up the Bundesbank and get it over with already. Instead of murdering millions by panzer, they can do through famine this go around. There is only one choice out of this, which makes this trade one of the easiest, high probability trades, you will ever partake in.

The wall of worry is real high now and expectations are near zero. The economy is contracting in the spring, like it has for the past 3 years; but will likely pole vault higher in the late summer. I remember feeling the same sense of doom last year, and the year prior, all but guaranteeing US recession– only to be proved wrong by magical resiliency.

Fuck that.

I’m up 1.1% today led by gains in TEX and MTW, eagerly awaiting for this bitch to climax.

NOTE: The Greek stock market was up more than 10% today.

The Consumer Price Index came in at -0.3% for the month, the lowest number since 2008. On top of that, the labor market continues to struggle. Apparently, all of those fucking “green” jobs 0bama promised us never panned out, due to the undebatable fact that 0bama is an oil man.

What the CPI is telling us is clear: America is swirling inside “The Deflationary Vortex” right now, something I’ve been warning you about for years. How do you get out of such a conundrum?

Print more money.

Bernanke will take today’s CPI numbers and punch the hawks, on the Fed’s board, in the face with them. QE3 is not a possibility, but probable. In the event we do not get QE3, I’m afraid the market will drop by 10% or more in short order. Let’s face it, fuckers, without our capital markets, we are nothing. America must preserve its capital markets, else a sundry of subsequent events will toss us, violently, back into the stone age.