iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
20,318 Blog Posts

POOF! YOUR BULLSHIT OVERSOLD BOUNCE IS OVER

Dave Portnoy was a hedge fund manager yesterday, after making $90k on a $3m account. Today he tested his hubris and margined his account to $5.5m and bought 40,000 BA at $139. His livestream has since went off and now his down $300k from his basis.

Any questions?

The rally you wanted to have is now over. We’re looking down the barrel of national and global lockdown thru summer, 250k deaths in America, 50% reduction in GDP, 30%+ unemployment. It is fucking over.

The Fed cannot make the virus go away. We had a nice rally, but now it’s over.

I am now directionally defensive and short, via FAZ, SOXS and have virus stocks working higher. I took some losses today and I didn’t feel good taking them. But I can’t turn back the clock and undo a mistake. What I can do is set a course that is likely to succeed now in this environ.

You will get nothing. No bounces. No carbs. Nothing but wooden spoons and gruel and outsized losses, as fuckers capsize into the black sea and drown.

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46 comments

  1. narcist

    LOL I just went long some RTY futs sub-1070.

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    • narcist

      Got out of this for 20 points earlier. Not crazy enough to bet on the jobless claims.

      Happy to book one rack per contract on the long side these days.

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  2. narcist

    Re: Portnoy, I don’t get the public fascination about him (and his trading). But then I don’t watch TV shows about car crashes, botched plastic surgeries, and people doing dumb things.

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  3. superpositron

    Dave is gunning for a very public deballing.

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  4. i_am_nemo

    How long before the rest of the world trades like Venezuela?

    https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/IBVC:IND

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  5. og

    Fades seem to regularly coincide with these NY press conferences.

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  6. heckler

    Fucking right Merlin, ’bout time!

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  7. alty

    Higher low boys. Get on board while you still can.

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  8. matt_bear

    $PENN seems like a buy with Portnoy’s popularity

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  9. superpositron

    Update. Dave is down 450k. But he just got two million put back into his account. So he’s going to make the 450k back by the end o the day.

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    • jacked rabbit

      And he just asked his twitter feed for trading suggestions. Oh, yes, this will end well.

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  10. bravo

    Honestly, it’s the best entertainment and content I’ve seen in ages. If you didnt laugh your ass off with him in his bandages, what can I say. It’s his $, he’s having some fun, and I suspect he’s got more than anyone on this board.

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  11. edge

    No sign of panic. Bad news is out. I think this market is shook out pretty well and folks aren’t fully understanding the amount of money that will be thrown at the corona crisis.
    At least 10t approved and the next one being worked on. Mnuchin signaling infrastructure spending, which Democrats love. With Trump on board with that how can Republicans say no in an election year?
    I wouldn’t be surprised if we’ve seen the bottom, what with 10t guaranteed and 2-5t more on the way.
    I wouldn’t be surprised to see a decent rally soon, like in the last hour.
    I held my longs and will start to accumulate.

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    • heckler

      Bro you guys gotta start studying the big time historical market crashes. The agony comes first them the ecstasy. If you think now is a good time to go long I would call that “bullish discouragement” i.e. “ah man this is just gonna go up, they are throwing so much money at it, it’s gotta go up.” WRONG! You will be flogged about the face neck head breast and chest regions

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      • metalleg

        don’t forget ball sack too.

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      • edge

        I’m aware. We may go bust in a few years but not now, they’ll spend as much as they have to.

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      • peaches

        You listen here feller. History is for girls and girly men. Got it?

        Now excuse me I’m gonna go put some GMOs in my meth pipe and see if my Alex Jones warrior pills showed up in the mail yet. They got bald eagle ball hairs in em. Only fucking cure for Kung Flu.

        They don’t teach that shit at your Communist Sharia University.

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        • edge

          I know market history very well. But there is nothing to compare this to.
          I do know that when they say whatever it takes- well, I’m not standing in front of that.

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        • Po Pimp

          Birds have feathers, not hair you dumbfuck.

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    • i_am_nemo

      You may very well be right. Throwing $10T at a $24.7T market would definitely pump it up. All it means is your cash will be worthless before long if you don’t invest in something. If you put in the market, maybe you stay even versus inflation or the market does a 1929 scenario and takes 20 years to recover. Give it a few months and we’ll see what transpires.

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      • alty

        Yes 20 years if you conveniently choose to ignore dividends, (dis)inflation and small and mid cap stocks, and assume a lump some at the top.

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        • i_am_nemo

          There are a lot of people that are all in in their 401Ks near retirement or retired. If you rely on dividends that are being canceled and the underlying stock is down 50%, you are not going to sleep well at night.

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          • edge

            I won’t ride that far. But buying when everyone thinks we’re going in the hole, with untold trillions being spent? I’ll take a chance on that.

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          • alty

            401ks offer bond funds and target date funds that would have been pretty substantially allocated to fixed income for a retiree. No reason for a retiree with an investment portfolio to be down more than 15% right now, and likely with a pension or SS as a backstop given their age. The virus is the concern for these people, not their portfolio.

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        • peaches

          He said 1929 not 2008. I’d argue it won’t be that bad because we have the 1933-35 fail safes installed. No social security. No unemployment.

          No body is gonna be setting the cows free to roam just to learn vicariously from nature what wild grasses you can eat… God willing.

          That being considered, 1929 highs weren’t hit again until 1954.

          My nerd machines are telling me that’s about 25 years.

          Nemo is spot on.

          One issue that might be showing up this week is all those undocumented workers who are not eligible for unemployment benefits… Who can’t pay their rent this month.

          Shit could get rough for them…

          Trickle up economics is real.

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          • alty

            I’m referring to 1929. The 25 year figure refers to the down only. I took substantially less time for small caps to recover price. And for the Dow it was single digits if you include dividends and base it on real returns and not nominal price.

            Heck even the Dow itself was a poor market timer, dropping IBM from the index in 1939 just before it went on to have a 100 bagger over ensuing decades.

            If you make all of the worst assumptions possible about the worst economic event in our country’s history, yes you can make owning equities seem like a bad idea.

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          • heckler

            You guys are all mental and fucked

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    • Mr. Cain Thaler
      Mr. Cain Thaler

      So besides the obvious issue of neither Fed monetary policy or USG fiscal policy really being able to get to where it’s needed right now (none of these commitments are going to get business transactions going if you can’t have workers / customers), there’s this other issue that $10 Trillion sounds awesome but if growth estimates are revised lower, that’s still plenty to kill stocks from where they were / are now.

      And there’s the elephant in the room… the GOP went along with this bailout because it’s an emergency but if they start to get the feeling that this is turning into a socialist giveaway you’re going to see the Senate break hard against new spending.

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      • peaches

        Fuck. We agree on something.

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      • edge

        Wouldn’t be the first time I was wrong. I’ve never been shy about changing course.
        No worries. Sometimes you fuck up.

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      • Mr. Cain Thaler
        Mr. Cain Thaler

        Or rather, the GOP may well support $10T in new spending, but they will not be supporting $10T in new spending at S&P 2470…

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        • edge

          Bet they will. The treasury will buy tons of stocks too.

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        • edge

          The time to get cold feet was before 10t was spent. They’re committed.

          Maybe not a bad idea to let it crash, but not after spending 10t.

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          • Mr. Cain Thaler
            Mr. Cain Thaler

            No one has committed to spending $10T. That would require a bill to pass Congress.

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          • Po Pimp

            It’s cute that you think things like the Constitution mean jack shit to the party of treason currently running things.

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      • Po Pimp

        Bullshit. They will all line up to suck Trump’s shroom cock and do whatever he says.

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  12. snoozemr

    a bit of AXP at 77. goes ex tomorrow.

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  13. alty

    Picked up some more of a REIT ETF down 8.5% about 15 minutes before the close. Am I the only idiot still accumulating equities around here?

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    • i_am_nemo

      Get some MAC $90 ATH in 2016 now a bargain at $5.57

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      • alty

        Individual equities are too risky for me. Thanks for the suggestion though.

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  14. edge

    You’re at the bottom when no one wants to buy.
    That decline was very subdued for the point loss too. No panic.

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  15. shy

    Today’s a third day of lower daily highs in the Russell 1000 Financial Services Index. It looks like a bull flag forming.

    Like a degenerate, I bought more $FAZ.

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    • shy

      Correction: Today’s the fourth day of lower daily highs in R1RGSFS

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  16. tjnyt

    Well orchestrated decline. Captin and the whole board is repeating WS narrative that changes daily, everyone is a fundamentalist here.
    MONEY has evolved, have you?

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