I’m no longer focused on individual names. I’m much more concerned with the overall performance of my holdings. Yesterday I gained 1.76%, reducing my losses to about 35%. Most of my fees have been waived for the year and now I’m only interested in recouping some losses. If I can end the year down 10%, that would be a big success. If, by chance, I end the year up, that would be a miracle.
Two names, purely from a valuation perspective, are of interest to me: CONN and TSL. I’d like to add one or both of them to the mix.
Following yesterday’s dramatic swing to the upside, this market is GUILTY until proven innocent. However, there was a certain change in tone to yesterday’s tape, with 82% of stocks traded higher. The last time we had that sort of breadth was on March 4th. Perhaps we are going to bounce in May like I suspected.
All I know is, I put together a “Bubble Basket” of 100 stocks a few weeks ago and it’s down more than 15% since then. High multiple/money burning enterprises have been crucified and earnings beats don’t appear to be halting their downward spiral. Â Comparatively, inside of The PPT, I have a semi-annual managed portfolio of growth at a reasonable price index, which is barely down 5% for the year. The marked difference between my GARP and the Bubble Stocks is the former is filled with companies who have earnings.
Although it’s possible for these bubble stocks to bounce here, even net outrageous returns if a real short squeeze occurs, I’d advise avoiding these names in favor for companies with PE multiples. This wasn’t a garden variety sell off and I don’t think it’s safe to go swimming in the shark infested waters just yet. So many of these hedge funds, these Tiger Cubs, were tied up in stocks like WDAY, SPLK and FEYE. They were mega-cap, liquid, growth stocks and now they’re coffins. The unwind is bound to keep pressure on these names for at least another quarter.
On the other hand, you have T rumored to be interested in buying DTV and KO upping its stake in GMCR. Again, positive action in profitable businesses.
The time for value investing is now.
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What do you think of JKS over TSL? It’s held up better, and they recently maintained guidance vs TSL recently trimming guidance…
For the most part, all of the solars move in tandem, no?
TSL down 15% on the year vs JKS down 5%…
not that that’s any indication that JKS will outperform…
But for the Chinese solars, what’s most important is access to financing which will allow them to win permits…JKS already has all the permits they need to achieve 2014 guidance whereas TSL still has to win permits to achieve its new guidance…
Thanks for the color
Quote from Growth PM “The best thing about my trip last week was my meeting with FEYE. I don’t ever have to do work on that company ever again. I am going to take it off my screen.”
after he rode it down from 100 to 25?
He does not own it. Never did. He was new money looking at it. He said it was one of the most enlightening meetings but not in a good way. He said if he could short he would.
There was an analyst who said, when it was at 90, that FEYE was a “once in a decade opportunity.”
How prescient!
fairly valued at 00.00
I wished I’ve never heard of that company.
Jim Rogers, the Bowed Tie, is bullish on Russia. Interesting call.
Gazprom and Yandex are on my watch list to buy.
RSXJ gets you a small cap basket. YNDX looks to be worth $35 or so on paper.
DEJ nice numbers out for Q1: Daily produxn up 44%,gross revs up 37%, operating cash flow up 283%. Also acquired producing and nonproducing assets and a compression facility to lower processing costs. CNBC quotes analysts stating Nat gas prices to remain high this year.
What category is Zillow in?
@ 20x sales, not value.
CONN=AVOID. Company sucks. Balance sheet sucks. Loans/balance sheet first to be hit in event of any weakness in econ. Did extremely well in booming credit phase — prob wont do so well when credit to them and their customers is tighter. Just a thought
Ifon reported their 3rd profitable qt in a row
Fly I think the speculative individual names is not how you will keep clients or win long term. The FEYE debacle is just one of many in the last 6-8 weeks. Broad Sector ETF discipline and the ability to be different is what you should focus on. Right now Mid Cap value (loaded with energy stocks) and India (PIN) are all over my top ranked screens. Combine a few sector leaders with deep contrarian plays should allow you to outperform without the risks associated with YELP, BALT and there ilk. Silver is the absolute dog right now and just like Brazil 6 months ago or Spain in the summer of 2012. These deep thrown out assets classes can make very nice low risk turnarounds!
But Brazil and India are just fads
Breakout killed me yesterday. For fucks sake.
Welcome to the worlds most boring fucking market.