Moderate Yourself: Shields Up

Okay, I’ve had time to absorb the information and sequester my emotions from what we are looking at here.

The last time The PPT flagged Oversold was 12/8/11 when the SPY was at $122. We are significantly above that level, despite the carnage, regardless of how poorly AAPL has been trading. As of the close of trade today, we are not oversold. Normally, I do not give away that information for free, since it is a membership service. However, we are living in interesting times and wanted to give you a full view of what the market can be setting up to do.

Starting with tomorrow’s sell off, I am giving the market 7-10 days for a full rebound. Unlike past euro events, this one will not drag on forever. I believe swift action will be taken. You are not the only one with something to lose here. Think about the bankster exposure to sovereign debt.

Thus far, contagion is not a topic, as Italian and Spanish yields are muted. But that doesn’t mean it can’t happen tomorrow.

You should not be leveraged long like me. I tend to make bold moves at odd times, often a little too early or late for my own good. When it’s all said and done, I’ll get it done, but not without expense. If I had a life expectancy (Le Fly is immortal), I’d be dead by now, resting in a pineapple coffin, from all of the HORSESHIT I put myself through. The market is a living organism, subject to the elements of man, contaminated by his stupidity. If you are bulking up on basic materials or high beta earnings plays, you are gambling and would be better off fighting sharks with chum wrapped around your fucking face.

Nothing is working but big dividend, big market cap, grandpa stocks. If you look at my 110% long position, you will find it to be deceptively conservative, with 50% of it yielding almost 3%, up 1% over the past 2 weeks. In other words, the grandpa stocks are a form of cash for me, until my risk appetite increases.

As of now, I am heavy on talking shit; but my actions are far more subdued. Don’t GMCR yourself out of the game and remember to live to fight another day. Once you are out, you’re fucking out. I can’t tell you how many times I missed out on huge gains because I didn’t manage my risk profile properly. When the market is back into beat-down-a-bear-to-the-skelton mode, you will know it– and have plenty of time to get in.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQt0BQQ5jyQ