Next on Deck: Chinese Housing Bubble

So buy speculative chicoms. There is much discussion about the dire share performances of Chinese mortgage/housing plays, due to the fact that they are in the process of building an immense housing bubble. Having said that, buy bullshit, half bankrupt Chinese stocks with fucked up auditing practices and American CEO’s, based in Shanghai. Nothing says “look at me I’m a fucking criminal enterprise” like a Chinese company, run by some fucktard from the midwest.

If you want some names, go visit RC’s blog.

Keep in mind, all of this shit we are doing here, buying and selling numbers and letters, will be rendered useless in 3 months. Today’s market is not tomorrow’s. I am a firm believer in “feeling the market.” If you follow this blog, for more than 6 months, you know damn well “The Fly” is not feeling this market. But I’ve managed to minimize my losses to virtually nil, due to my larger than life cash position (50%). I cannot stress this point enough. In the past, when I got cold, I lost a hilarious amount of coin. That’s because I was always “all in.” These days, with some maturity and lots of experience, I know when to turn down the dial, so that I can do no harm. I know my market position has been dreadful. But look at where I am, as a whole. I am still up 30% for the year and half of my book is in cash, waiting for an opportunity.

When I was younger, like RC, I did not think about the market going down. I just bought the hottest stocks and pissed on my competition when I was taking home 100k, after taxes, for the month. Although at times I push the envelope, my current investing style is more of the sniper variety, than rolling into the town square in a tank, guns blazing.

Bottom line: If you have the itch, look at some degenerate Chinese lottery names. Or, if you are like me, wait for your market, in the tall grass.

I’m gonna throw the dead deer on the table and ask you what you think of its antlers. Is the Fed working for the interests of the American people, via quantitative easing? Furthermore, why is the Fed paying banks interest, to the tune of billions, to hold reserves? If they really wanted banks to lend money, they’d take away the incentive to horde cash, no?

In the Fed’s statement today, they warned of deflation and promised to bring inflation back up to a level they are comfortable with, using history as a benchmark. All the while, the U.S. dollar drowns in pigshit, to the point where other central banks are sure to intervene, in order to prop it up. The current mix of the market makes no sense and should make everyone nervous. How can the Swiss Franc, Yen, Treasuries, Euro, Gold and other commodities rally, at the same time investors are blind to the soon to be revealed “other side of the blade” repercussions?

Answer: Euphoria

Remove yourself from the trading turret, if only for a minute, and ponder about the future of the average American, using the trajectory the Fed is laying out in front of us. In layman’s terms, how will the goat fuckers in Detroit survive, with a rapidly deteriorating employment market and rising food/energy costs?

This is a path that is unsustainable, courtesy of the treasonous Federal Reserve.

Sugar

Coffee

Cotton

Milk

Cattle

Rice


Oats

Soybeans

Corn

Wheat

I know the Fed waits in the balance and the market can turn on a dime; but we are due for a sell off anyway, no? What better time to WHOOSH lower, based upon lack of QE2 chatter? Should “The Bearded Clam” disappoint market participants, we will trade lower, significantly. The stage is set, from yields to yen, back to breadth.

Howsoever, the market is in the retard zone. Therefore, nothing is what it seems and everything is made with dream dust. I shorted more AEM, due to my belief that gold is scheduled to trade lower. Yes, I said “scheduled.” But, I am not interested in shorting anything else ahead of Ben. He’s a fucking rapist.

Oh, by the way, never trust the initial reaction, as it is always a trick. Typically the market finds its direction about 3:00. Either way, we are due for a sharp reversal of fortune, if I might be so bold.

I sold short 2,000 AEM @67.32.

Disclaimer: The real store of value is tomatoes not gold bricks.

The market is down 1 point. Shame on you for allowing such an atrocity to be inflicted on this great country. Quit watching teevee or working and go toss some market orders onto this here market, in order to support equities. There is nothing more important or meaningful than “power pumping” the share prices of U.S. and Chinese corporations.

We will base today’s rally around the idea of QE2. The dollar will go down and commodities will trade up, especially of the dry variety. An upsurge in food commodities is especially desirable because it means we are “rich as fuck” and can afford any price our local grocer throws our way.

$100 tomato here we come!

Take a step back, pal; quit playing with bedbugs and go buy some stocks.

Sarcasm aside, I WILL NEVER cave into the pressures of phantom economic nirvana. You can go play with your fucking stock certificates. I can’t hate on you, since you’re all fucking jerk offs. If given the opportunity, I’d punch your face in with a glass of chardonnay.

Ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, young charlatans plot out tomorrows trade, all the while eating excessive quantities of caramel flavored flan. Mergers and acquisitions are back and the economy is on a roll again, thanks to the wonderful policies enacted by President Obama. Everyone loves “The O” because he saved us from the brink, through government led bailouts and well targeted stimulus. There is no doubt, because of the terrific/remarkable success in averting a great depression, Obama will be elected for a second term, in the 2012 elections.

While we all enjoy the fanatical fervor of the cock-eyed right wing  Tea Party, with their “no more tax and spend” mantras, they are nothing more than mere fodder for the Obama machine. By 2012, the Dow Jones will be north of 14,000, all but guaranteeing him a second and possible THIRD TERM, by way of massive landslide. I know you do not believe these words, for they are different than yours. But, rest assured, as long as the stock market trades up, the democrats will occupy the White House. The stock market is the ultimate trickle down stimulus program.

In what could only be described as “clever,” the Federal government is using the “Detroit model” to save the country from peril. Naturally, the “Detroit model” is extremely effective in cutting back greenhouse gasses—through industrial attrition. Just think about it, if these “non tax and spend” Tea Party people took power, why, we’d see states and cities file bankruptcy claims on an industrial scale. It’s much better this way, as long as you are “clever” enough to buy gold bars and silver bullets.

Inflation is good and deflation is bad. Should food commodities run wild, the government will subsidize the cost. No biggie. If foreign nations stop buying our debt, we will stop making payments on the current debt: a win win for the US of fucking A.

In short, I have come around to the idea of a perpetually higher stock market, based upon profound American success stories, being played out in real time, by none other Barrax O’bama.

“But PNC was down. But X was down.”

All of you can go fuck yourselves, sideways, upside down or with a clown. Mergers and splurges.  Rice and mice. Do everything neatly and do it fucking twice.

VXX was down 2.55% today and AEM was up 1.1%. My longs managed to gain about 1%, putting today’s losses less than 1%. It’s not the loss of money that pisses me off; but the absence of making the right calls. Nothing upsets me more than missing out on a parabolic move higher. Fuck with me now, blogger or reader, and I will shut you down. This warning is extended to everyone, even iBC employees. Tread ever so carefully, Sir.

I don’t want to talk about the market. It distresses me a great deal. I certainly will not point to “weak chinks” in the “armor,” for that shit is meaningless, following a 145 point move higher based upon ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. Again, very calmly, I am warning you to avoid being smug and offering me financial advice. I do not need history lessons and I certainly do not need anything from the likes of you. I need to unwind, punch a few holes in the ol’ sheet rock, then analyze where I will allocate money next.

I have a very, very difficult time accepting being wrong and biting bullets. It’s very easy to point out the mistakes of others; but not so easy to change a strategy that has been planned for more than a year.

It’s burning.

I haven’t looked at my monitor all day, ever since it decided to castrate me. I understand the President had a CNBC townhall meeting today. Fuck the President. “The Fly” is officially dead. You may all address me as “Charbuckle Wilson” for now on. I will move my family down south and open a chain of novelty shoppes. I will name them “Charbuckle’s Stuff.”

I am prepared to let VXX go to zero. As retarded as that sounds, I’d still be up 5% for the year—if that shit really did happen. The bottom line is I am beyond mad. I am an angry man with steam coming out of his ears. This recent market run, which was predicted eloquently by all other iBC bloggers, is like a perpetual car wreck for me. The sick shit, I’m still driving the fucked up, mangled car, doing 100mph on the freeway. People gawk and point and say “holy shit that guy should be dead.”

One word: SEATBELTMOTHERFUCKERS.

Okay, Charbuckle is leaving now and will not bother reading any blog comments, for the lifetime of this blog. Do not bother asking “Charbuckle” questions, for he barely knows English. I now leave the integrity of this blog to you, the unwashed people from the internets.

See ya’ll the fuck later.

Everyone is racing to buy gold, as it is a “store of value.” Well, you know what else is a “store of value”? My cock. I will not besmirch those who like gold. I just really think the concept of gold is ludicrous, which is why I never buy it. At any rate, there are some powerful seasonal factors that contribute to price appreciation, for gold, during the month of September.

I will go over some of that shit, and more, right now.

By far, out of all the months in the year, September is the best month for gold. Granted, in recent years, November has been more than serviceable for gold bugs. But over a longer body of work, September is the month for gold.

Here are some historical facts for September, courtesy of The PPT (symbol, avg. return, winning percentage, month, months down, total months, months up)

As you can see, about 10 names are showing 70% win rates, with some pretty large data sets, which is impressive. It’s especially impressive because gold has not always been “the place be.”

Where am I going with this? You know damn well where I am going.

October seasonality (symbol, avg. return, winning percentage, month, months down, total months, months up):

As you can see, gold stocks do not fare well in October. As a matter of fact, they perform dreadfully. Currently, I am short AEM, a stock that has been down 75% of the time, during the month of October—over 26 years. This is not some small data set where you can laugh and spit on, as you sip on a fine aged Bordeaux. Quite the contrary. You buy AEM into October and it shits on you, for an average loss of 8%.

I like those odds.

I will be shorting more AEM, up to $71.

About a month ago, the internet was “abuzz” with dire warnings of Hindenburg Omens, calling for imminent collapse. If you recall, I called for a “Nagasaki NOW!” move up, just to sort of counter-balance all of the tomfoolery that was being broadcasted on CNBC. Fast forward 10 trading days and 600 Dow points, everyone is calling for a super-spike past 11,000. Need I remind you to exercise restraint, following parabolic moves? After all of these years showing you animals how it’s done, you still forget the basic principles of investing.

Sure, if you stuck with this move, all the way, you made more money than me. It’s true, I am not big on pushing the envelope these days, which has more to do with having gains than not, if you know what I mean.

Instead of regurgitating all of the bad news, like Ireland getting a secret ECB bailout last week, I am here to remind you of your place, which is decidedly lower than me. As the summer winds down and degenerate clowns laugh it up on the teevee, discussing the “cock market” and how it “deserves to be so much higher,” keep in mind they are fucking morons of the first order and are wrong all the time.

“People never see it coming. They just get to see it go.”

-BEAS, 2010