“But PNC was down. But X was down.”
All of you can go fuck yourselves, sideways, upside down or with a clown. Mergers and splurges. Rice and mice. Do everything neatly and do it fucking twice.
VXX was down 2.55% today and AEM was up 1.1%. My longs managed to gain about 1%, putting today’s losses less than 1%. It’s not the loss of money that pisses me off; but the absence of making the right calls. Nothing upsets me more than missing out on a parabolic move higher. Fuck with me now, blogger or reader, and I will shut you down. This warning is extended to everyone, even iBC employees. Tread ever so carefully, Sir.
I don’t want to talk about the market. It distresses me a great deal. I certainly will not point to “weak chinks” in the “armor,” for that shit is meaningless, following a 145 point move higher based upon ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. Again, very calmly, I am warning you to avoid being smug and offering me financial advice. I do not need history lessons and I certainly do not need anything from the likes of you. I need to unwind, punch a few holes in the ol’ sheet rock, then analyze where I will allocate money next.
I have a very, very difficult time accepting being wrong and biting bullets. It’s very easy to point out the mistakes of others; but not so easy to change a strategy that has been planned for more than a year.
It’s burning.
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so what asswipe,its still all fuckin fig to me.
Someone left the gate open again…
That sounds like the Fly I know – I knew you’d snap back 🙂
fuckin wish i knew how to throw up a youtube song.anyway,it would have been ,blood,sweat and tears”spinnin wheel”.and all yuz got to do is adhere to the first 6 words
WTF, Fly is going all ad hominem on us. How peculiar.
Anyone else enjoy Boardwalk Empire last night? Looks like it will be a great show.
In the absence of TrueBlood and Entourage – it gives me something to do on Sunday night other than staring at US Futures and Asian markets.
Due to lost coin, I will be watching a bootleg copy of the new Wallstreet video taped in the back row with popcorn grease on the lens.
Finally, The Fly I know. Angry and determined. Good to see you back!
Disclosure: fucked by VXX position and totally lost in the macro environment.
The obvious question though is……….
Does this show a major flaw in the PPT system???
Not trying to poor salt on the wound but I think it is a valid question…
Clearly, it proves the old adage that “what’s overbought can get even MORE overbought” (and vice-versa). That said, this market *is* way the hell overbought, the macro data sucks (and is about to filter into the “micro earnings reports) and both Shanghai and the Euro look as if they’re about to break down all over again, so I took my shorts up to 150% of my account value near the close, in the SPX 1142s. I have a huge DUSA long position which has kept me +24% YTD as of the close; without that, I’d be quite underwater by now due to this big (and now bigger) short position of mine.
Chugg…..Chugg…..Chugg!
No major flaw in the PPT. The PPT just hit 2.97 (overbought) today. Fly might have been a little early to the party.
Like I said FLAW, FLY posted that reading at 3.07 on Sept 7 and has remained short the market ever since and increased TZA position in personal account to 100%……so don’t tell me there’s no major flaw………..
discuss it and find out how to fix it.??? Got me?
The market did sell off after the 3.07 reading, fatass, it just didn’t get to oversold again before rebounding. It got pretty close (low 2.30’s) however.
Stay O.D.’d.
_________
So your saying The FLY should have sold his TZA then?
He should be the expert at his own system if anyone…
what fly does with his holdings is his business…. you should care about yours
The market did sell off after the 3.07 reading
Eggzactly.
I bought some EDZ when we closed at 3.07 (a Friday if I recall) and sold it the next session for a 4.5% gain. Played that one perfectly.
Subsequent staging back into EDZ has shall we say; not been done so perfectly.
It’s a paid service bud. IF you believe there is a flaw then why are you still on this blog? Go find a place that YOU think is accurate. Actually, you’re probably banned now anyway.
FUCK YOU….Buttman!
I am not being hostile, just surprised at the attitude for asking a valid question…
I wasn’t being hostile either but thanks for the gracious response. My point is if you think there is a flaw then why are you here…another valid question. If you want to pony up the cash for a subscription then you can have your question answered. What’s so hard about that?
……My point is how good is the system if the Master Fly even managed to misread or misreact to it, what chance do I stand even if I had access to all the information?
All I can tell you is that I have benefited significantly from being a PPT subscriber. The system is a tool in the toolbox. With some patience and conviction it has done very well for me.
Did you say 150% Short? You deserve to lose everything. It’s one thing to have conviction and another thing to be just plain stupid.
>>Did you say 150% Short? You deserve to lose everything. It’s one thing to have conviction and another thing to be just plain stupid.<<
I'm not 150% net short… My long positions are currently around 57% of my account value, and the shorts are around 150%, so I'm around 93% net short. Even if I were 150% net short, I'd be nowhere close to at risk of "losing everything". If the market went up 20% (which from here would be SPX 1370), I'd have a 30% drawdown, which would put me down 6% on the year… I know your moniker is "bullish", but do you think the market is going up 20% from here?
20% from here? Definitely! You never asked over what time frame…
Let me put it this way: I think we’ll see 985 long before we see 1385
Mr. Fly – Please go easy on me.
Sincerely,
Sheetrock
Mr. Devildog was obviously wrong…about the world ending and all that….
Every market looks like a bear market to a Devildog. Pretty short-sighted.
Every market can also look like a bear market to a severely maimed bull.
The past and present tend to cloud the future, no?
It’s just a timing thingy. Keep your buzzz up.
Would be interested in a post-mortem on how the PPT performed. Really.
The PPT has been staying within the bands of oversold/overbot, so not as helpful recently.
______
Bravo! Hang in there. You will have your day. Of that, I am sure.
Fucking natty was down more than 4.5% and my natty stock that I’m short barely budged. Fuckers.
At least my retail longs have been performing well.
you long CHS?
I made mincemeat of that laughable PPT overbought indicator. Is it in day 8 or 9 of overbought?
Muhawawawhahaha!!!
who gives a fuck, load up on more VXX as I did FAZ.
you know this shit is coming down, just dont be a bitch
shit floats to the top, always… it’s never coming down…. you should know… you bought FAZ
Jolly, you’re going to short a financial index when many financials are in a potential volatility squeeze with clear bullish candles all over the place? Good luck.
he has no idea what volatility squeeze is…. he needs to experience it… in 3x leveraged baloon
FWIW — That Charbuckle thing last post was gold.
_________
will you take a look at that >>>.DOW 10753.62 imagine that…. a fella would have to ask himself 10800.00 0r 11100.00
I thought you said you owned nothing?
i dont 100% cash…..im watchful right now
…and earning 0.01%.
annualized.
its temporary i assure you
key word is “earning”
‘earning’ beats ‘hoping’
The year is 1975.
January or July?
Double down on tza at 23.00
So,…in addition to being a confused moose, you’re also a cowboy / riverboat gambler?
I love this blog!
Market is pure gambling lately.
market is not pure gambling , but it is full of gamblers…
V. true.
charbuckle,isnt that
fatty arbuckles’ cousin,or some hill billy kissin cousin
I sure hope that the Fly can find ways to release his stress well. This market has driven many bright people crazy.
The worst thing about it is that in most any other field, everyone who is talented and willing can find the keys to success and do well. But in the market, once many many people are following a certain method of analysis– whether by all learning from the same mentor, or whether different folks each discover the market pattern independently from their own computer analysis– then too many people are on the same side of the boat and it tips over. No, someone pushes it over. The hedge funds are all following the pattern in order to profit, and the big investment banks, seeing their hedge funds clients all trading in the same direction, find it easy to do a short squeeze or a long squeeze. So– just at the time when it seems to make the least sense–the market has FIGs in the opposite direction that the pattern (the pattern that used to work so well) would have predicted. And the big investment banks take tons of money squeezing their clients.
In no other field of endeavor, except maybe organized crime, do you have such predatory stuff going on, to eff up what would otherwise be your high probablities of success as a bright and super hard working person.
That’s a well-written observation, Frog. Just about every smart guy I know is fundamentally bearish and positioned accordingly (even if not short, they’re at least underinvested), and that’s why the lousy macro data hasn’t been enough to keep this market down. However, when that starts translating into corporate earnings warnings, the market will break.
Wake me up, when September ends……
That’s why I use 4 different styles 1. Market profile 2 Intermarket Correlations 3. Traditional Charting/Oscillators 4. Fundamentals.
Too many traders use one of those styles only, and refuse to see the value in the other 3.
You are wise to do that.
I take a similar approach using:
1. Market sentiment indicators
2. Volatility / VIX
3. Negative / low correlation between markets and securities
4. Charting / relative performance / RSI /Stochastics / MACD / Mac oscillator / MAs
5. Sector analysis and valuations
6. Global macro / currency / commodities
T-U-I-T-I-O-N. Ever heard of it? Pay me, bitches!
I saw some guy today driving madly as i was hiding in some brush on the side of the road. He flew past me going a gazzion miles an hour and it look like it the car was one big flame.
As the car approach, i saw a skeletal fiqure driving it.. Instead on screaming for his life, he past by histrically laughing in a gostly tone, he did have a seatbelt on.
That was me in my riced up Daewoo Leganza. Unfortunately, Bernanke ran me off the road.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gjFutMmaC50&feature=related
I was able to snag a photo of the car when the driver stopped to pick up some sandwiches: http://twitpic.com/23s5ox
GROUP HUG!
Your avatars and screen names never cease to make me laugh 🙂
If you think that’s funny, you should see my P/L this month.
<>
Now don’t forget to tip your waitress!!
badum-bump (sic)
I told The Fly to get a heavy punching bag and those leather gloves and punch away. Removes all stress and turns you into a cold blooded killer.
Many bears were burned in late august because they underestimated the election anticipation effect. The market has never seen such a telegraphed, near guaranteed, massive republican victory. Technicals were bearish, fundamentals were bearish–but fund managers were deathly afraid of being caught short into election season. Im a little surprised more bears didn’t see this coming. The November polls have been very clear, since June.
The good news is, this rally IS the election rally–in all likelihood. Were pricing in the November election right now. Market should be flat or down from here into January. But, i wouldn’t bet on more than a 5 to 6% pullback. If we hit ES 1080 or below–that would be the time to get out of shorts..
it is a major market profile accumulation zone, intersecting with an ascending daily chart lower trendline. But, up here, is no place to be capitulating.
That’s why I’m calling for a post November, sell the news dive.
Even if the GOP takes the House (Senate unlikely, IMHO), we are still going to wake up the next day with Obamacare on the books, a 2,500 page Finance Bill that no one, not even Bwanny Fwank knows what’s in it, and Barak H. Obama as POTUS for 24 more Soviet-style Gulag-like months.
___________
That dope on a slope dude seems to have capitulated. Good times.
Now that all the weak shorts have covered it gets innerestin. Does the market have the voltage required to catalyze the reverse transformation of the tza-tza fly into human form in the guise of Charbuckle Wilson? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tCl2ILmofOs&feature=related
If true, then this rally may be on it’s last legs.
Fly, let this be a lesson to you. When everyone is leaning the same way, the many will be wrong.
-The Dominator
~~~~~
I am now considering joining the PPT just to avoid the stupidity perpetuating from public posts.
The comments you will see in the User Notes section are incomparable to what you see here. Worth the price of admission alone. Many, many class acts in there.
Why do you think I spend the majority of my time there. The wealth of info is priceless in The PPT
LOL. Join. It’s worth the small price of admission.
Today I found myself backspacing my comments over and over again. It seems stupidity truly noes [sic] know [sic] bounds out here. Back to my hedge cave.
C Farley is correct – occillators should be minded but not be traded off of.
Nothing replaces skill and experience.
The real value of the PPT is in what the many excellent bloggers here can teach you, not some score.
I can’t believe the stock market is going up because the recession is over!? House values are still going down and unemployment is high. How are companies going to boost profit next year? Lay off even more people? I’m too chicken shit to short, but I’m running out of longs to sell and feel way under-invested. When is this thing going down?
Oh for fuck sake.
Bernanke is buying up Treasuries from the Primary Dealers something like every other market day from now till the end of September, at minimum.
And every fucking dime of that POMO will go right into equities, tout fucking suite, Monsieur Le Fly.
CLOSE ALL SHORT POSITIONS kind gentlemen of the tube-er-nets.
24 plates 6X
Thank You PPT
I dont know much. maybe take overs, huge IOC movements and so on. However PPT is 100% right when OVERSOLD. Thats not the issue here, if you l;ook at it, at times it is wrong. So I dont know what all these girls are crying about.
Seriously, are you kidding? Perhaps you should just by a mutual fund. I am not kidding. With all that has been given on this sight, ANV, GMCR,NUHC,SLW, IOC, RC’s monster picks, Hpuma, VC and the rest of the gang.
Given the plan historical fact that OVER BOUGHT is not 100% right and take into account all the winning trades and set ups.
For all those cry babies reading this. Do your family a service, GO KILL YOURSELF.
regards
chuck
This move isnt nearly done yet. Fly has dug his heels in and will lose a lot more. I had a feeling today would be a huge day, and luckily got out this morning. Now watch the rally continue tomorrow and all week. I am waiting to get back in my short positions when the market finally has a down day. Until then, I am all cash.
Fear not Fly, todays market misdemeanour only shows you still have some human DNA left after all !
God help us the next day you nail it, we’re all gonna drown in your excess of robe. 😀