So buy speculative chicoms. There is much discussion about the dire share performances of Chinese mortgage/housing plays, due to the fact that they are in the process of building an immense housing bubble. Having said that, buy bullshit, half bankrupt Chinese stocks with fucked up auditing practices and American CEO’s, based in Shanghai. Nothing says “look at me I’m a fucking criminal enterprise” like a Chinese company, run by some fucktard from the midwest.
If you want some names, go visit RC’s blog.
Keep in mind, all of this shit we are doing here, buying and selling numbers and letters, will be rendered useless in 3 months. Today’s market is not tomorrow’s. I am a firm believer in “feeling the market.” If you follow this blog, for more than 6 months, you know damn well “The Fly” is not feeling this market. But I’ve managed to minimize my losses to virtually nil, due to my larger than life cash position (50%). I cannot stress this point enough. In the past, when I got cold, I lost a hilarious amount of coin. That’s because I was always “all in.” These days, with some maturity and lots of experience, I know when to turn down the dial, so that I can do no harm. I know my market position has been dreadful. But look at where I am, as a whole. I am still up 30% for the year and half of my book is in cash, waiting for an opportunity.
When I was younger, like RC, I did not think about the market going down. I just bought the hottest stocks and pissed on my competition when I was taking home 100k, after taxes, for the month. Although at times I push the envelope, my current investing style is more of the sniper variety, than rolling into the town square in a tank, guns blazing.
Bottom line: If you have the itch, look at some degenerate Chinese lottery names. Or, if you are like me, wait for your market, in the tall grass.
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
FIRST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
(Bitches)
my first time to post here. im surprised you used the term “chicoms” as these are the local terms used here in asia.
How do you know I am not in China?
I am watching all of you, ever so quietly (creepy).
still have your tza/vxx, fly?
Yes
HMMM….my neck of the woods re China…most Chinese have 30- 50 percent deposit on their houses. Many save 50% of their income on top of that. The market has to fall a long way to get under water with that sort of LVR. Are you referring to CRE in China..Also, China is so huge and so many economies under the one ‘roof’…any bubble bursting will be regional, not across as China as per USA. that is why the house of cards just won’t fall as per expectations of many westerners who have lost a heap betting against China over the last 2 years. IMHO.
Mr. LOL
You are a madman. You cannot offer anecdotal evidence for a country as big as yours. Look at the amount of mtg debt your banks are issuing.
BUBBLE
But, it’s also worth noting, as many people as China has, most of your development is concentrated in a handful of cities.
The issue is not house of cards, per se, a la USA. The Chinese housing market will just remain very depressed, due to a large inventory glut coupled with low income per person.
I can and do offer anecdotal evidence.
listen to chanos much do ya?
You mean, madwoman!
Bubble is WAY over used…can we find another word?
Lucy Lui??
________
LOL
Japan had a high savings rate, high LVR for housing and full employment. It’s now dead man walking.
Don’t live under the misapprehension that sort of shit can’t happen in China. OF course it can.
Mr Fly, have you been to China? IF so, where did you like best? what did you observe?
I visit China once every 3 years for the Black Dragon Society meetings.
I’ve been to China. Shanghai, as a matter of fact. Amazing city despite the pollution and the skyline filled with building cranes everywhere I looked. The night life is fabulous. One time, I was at this private party, and these three Asian chicks were playing this game called ‘bukkake’, and it was really, really wild, and…..oh, wait a minute. Sorry, wrong country. That was when I was in Japan.
China is pretty cool, though.
ha… some here might not have a clue what you just mentioned. just one thing, were you “watching” the “game” or “participating” slydog…
China is like Lehman, AIG and Enron all rolled into one nice, neat little cyanide-laced fortune cookie.
And yes, I own a few ‘chicoms’ because I live dangerously.
indeed.
I play around out there all the time. True, they put over 50% down on housing. Lived in Peking (Beijing) for 8 months. World trade center. It was build well, however most of the building new and old are build like shit.
Not worth the coin if one would ask me.
Inflation will grip chiner before anything.
regards
chuck
Fly,
That Black Dragon meeting is being done in Hong Kong this december. Shall I go in your sted? or are you coming with?
Late night post, mostly a respose to teacher-based frustration rage, but there’s also a nice dollar chart for your perusal too.
___________
Dorrah chot ruseress to me! Fukq China and US!
I buy gord! Nahting airse!
Light agaiyn, my lage!
____________
I calm down now. Go to bed. Dream of gord cooking utensils.
….and gorden sheep.
Oh, fetus soup so dericious – you come get some right chicken rooey!!
have lived and worked in nanjing and will be returning in february for more of the same. my friend and former student who is a working in a chinese hedge fund says the housing is yes, a bubble. difficult for me to judge, but renting is extremely expensive in shanghai and nanjing, too!
Even if they are building a bubble, the sheer magnitude of population waiting in ranks to graduate to the “middle class” is mind boggling. It is much like India from the perspective of domestic population providing the next leg of growth.
What you said about inflation resonates with me though. They fucking manipulated the numbers it seems when they came up with the 3.5% rate couple of weeks ago. Look at the individual components and it is clear. Can’t help but wonder that they always have the option of releasing their leg off the pegging pedal.
Must feel good to be them.
My kids must wonder what the hell is going on in my bedroom when they hear me laughing hysterically in the middle of night. Tonight it was the honorable Mr. Limm and gorden sheep that brought tears to my eyes. Fly, your site is always good for a hearty laugh besides making coin.
You know this Nymph has been watching and blogging about this china bubble building all the way back in April of 2009 on another site…..for over a year and a half I have been amazed that no one cares at all about it. When it finally goes pop it is going to be amazing….Alpha is right, there is so much graft, bad loans,hot money, etc….plus a super huge surplus in materials piled up…just a mess over there. In hindsight, I should have played the forming bubble when I saw it….didn’t do it cuz I thought pros would spot it and stop it…nope, that was an important lesson for me to learn.
Nymph, the fianl stage, or bubble, in a speculative market is when people ignore the fundamentals and trade purely on “technicals” and emotions because lots of money can be made. As we know, speculative bubbles can last longer than people realize, and in the case of China, it can go on and on until it reaches its tipping point . What and when that is, is anyones guess, but it will eventually come. This doesnt mean investors and trders should avoid China. They just have to be prepared to get out before the proverbial fortune cookie crumbles,
Thank you Alpha….I am really amazed how strong these things grow to.
May be time to sell my longs. I am a net seller.
This market still has not broken. VXX and TZA are way under water and going lower. When will fly stop this nonsense. Chiner is not going to implode overnight like we did. They are much too smart compared to us. I remember in college all of the economics professors were chinks. There is a reason for that, they aint dumb.
Fig
Shut up. You are a perma bull. Never offer me advice
Seems odd that China is said to have thousands of empty units, but prices are doubling every year on condos. Only in a planned economy I guess.
and a billion people looking for a place to live in the big city. We have a real problem in this country with more units than our population could ever use. In China, they have a massive wave of people moving to the cities from the countryside. Yes, they currently cannot afford to live in luxury, but as their economy grows, all of their housing will be occupied. Ours on the other hand will never be occupied, and will be left to rot for a generation.
I don’t think we are that bad off. Rot for a generation?
Looks like the trade is be long A.B.T.D (Anything But The Dollar) going into the November Fed meeting when the Bearded clam will unleash the Mother of All QE’s… Get ready for Hyperinflation!
Yep. This is just the beginning of massive amounts of QE that wont amount to shit. I figure this economy will last for another 2 years. At that point, expect rioting in the streets because the dollar will be completely worthless.
Suck it up and deal with it, bitch.
Trade war is on, and the USA is on the sneaky offensive via inflation. No need to artificially lower your currency to provide domestic employment and production of goods when you can just fuck up the currency through inflation. Then you aren’t a bad guy like Japan. Obama the great wins again?
No need for Smoot-Hawley if you use inflation. It’s still technically free trade, but you’ve changed the playing field just as much anyways.
Result for stock market?
And Fly, if your 50% cash had been in Canadian dollars, it would be up 5% instead.
Well boys and girls this ancient one knows for a time-honored fact that those who think they have the chicoms all figured out are as naive as the guy buying Chun King chow mein in case lots. Are you more prescient than the inscrutable? Turn your dragon breath to Brazil. Think future, examine that economy, politics, resources and the citizen’s mindset. A friend of mind, a Brazillian native living now in the U.S. just came back from a two week business trip and said the people in Rio are walking the streets, even at night. The crime rate has been squashed and people are out spending. You heard it here. Think offshore oil service.
ADBE (Adobe Systems inc.) only down 20% today
EBAY only down 5% today
Can the Fed reverse these……? POMO Bitch!
Yes we can! Yes we can! Now get down and give me 50.
Overheard at Team “O” ver Headquarters…
Ok…Summers replacement….Muslim….Female….and Lesbian….
holy chit man…dees could take some time hommes
Also must be a professor from Harvard or U. of Chicago with no real world experience. An avowed Marxist or Socialist is preferred.
Wheelchair bound not mandatory, but it wouldn’t hurt either.
Definition of ASCENDANCY
: governing or controlling influence : domination
I’m bored…had time to kill…
adding to AEM long…
Chinese housing bubble is so yesterday.. let’s talk gold.
Not too long ago discovered anb important toenail funugs product thta I assumed I would share with everyone. I’ve suffered for years and have tried everything but that is the one product that worked. Cheers!
__________________
[url=http://www.fitnails.com/toe_nail_fungus_a/168.htm]Toe Nail Fungus[/url]