iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
21,077 Blog Posts

Next on Deck: Chinese Housing Bubble

So buy speculative chicoms. There is much discussion about the dire share performances of Chinese mortgage/housing plays, due to the fact that they are in the process of building an immense housing bubble. Having said that, buy bullshit, half bankrupt Chinese stocks with fucked up auditing practices and American CEO’s, based in Shanghai. Nothing says “look at me I’m a fucking criminal enterprise” like a Chinese company, run by some fucktard from the midwest.

If you want some names, go visit RC’s blog.

Keep in mind, all of this shit we are doing here, buying and selling numbers and letters, will be rendered useless in 3 months. Today’s market is not tomorrow’s. I am a firm believer in “feeling the market.” If you follow this blog, for more than 6 months, you know damn well “The Fly” is not feeling this market. But I’ve managed to minimize my losses to virtually nil, due to my larger than life cash position (50%). I cannot stress this point enough. In the past, when I got cold, I lost a hilarious amount of coin. That’s because I was always “all in.” These days, with some maturity and lots of experience, I know when to turn down the dial, so that I can do no harm. I know my market position has been dreadful. But look at where I am, as a whole. I am still up 30% for the year and half of my book is in cash, waiting for an opportunity.

When I was younger, like RC, I did not think about the market going down. I just bought the hottest stocks and pissed on my competition when I was taking home 100k, after taxes, for the month. Although at times I push the envelope, my current investing style is more of the sniper variety, than rolling into the town square in a tank, guns blazing.

Bottom line: If you have the itch, look at some degenerate Chinese lottery names. Or, if you are like me, wait for your market, in the tall grass.

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56 comments

  1. Munch the Great

    FIRST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    (Bitches)

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  2. silentmax

    my first time to post here. im surprised you used the term “chicoms” as these are the local terms used here in asia.

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  3. MOOBS

    still have your tza/vxx, fly?

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  4. LOL!

    HMMM….my neck of the woods re China…most Chinese have 30- 50 percent deposit on their houses. Many save 50% of their income on top of that. The market has to fall a long way to get under water with that sort of LVR. Are you referring to CRE in China..Also, China is so huge and so many economies under the one ‘roof’…any bubble bursting will be regional, not across as China as per USA. that is why the house of cards just won’t fall as per expectations of many westerners who have lost a heap betting against China over the last 2 years. IMHO.

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    • The Fly

      Mr. LOL

      You are a madman. You cannot offer anecdotal evidence for a country as big as yours. Look at the amount of mtg debt your banks are issuing.

      BUBBLE

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  5. LOL!

    Mr Fly, have you been to China? IF so, where did you like best? what did you observe?

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    • The Fly

      I visit China once every 3 years for the Black Dragon Society meetings.

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    • alphadawgg

      I’ve been to China. Shanghai, as a matter of fact. Amazing city despite the pollution and the skyline filled with building cranes everywhere I looked. The night life is fabulous. One time, I was at this private party, and these three Asian chicks were playing this game called ‘bukkake’, and it was really, really wild, and…..oh, wait a minute. Sorry, wrong country. That was when I was in Japan.

      China is pretty cool, though.

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      • TheArtist

        ha… some here might not have a clue what you just mentioned. just one thing, were you “watching” the “game” or “participating” slydog…

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  6. alphadawgg

    China is like Lehman, AIG and Enron all rolled into one nice, neat little cyanide-laced fortune cookie.

    And yes, I own a few ‘chicoms’ because I live dangerously.

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  7. chuck bennett

    indeed.

    I play around out there all the time. True, they put over 50% down on housing. Lived in Peking (Beijing) for 8 months. World trade center. It was build well, however most of the building new and old are build like shit.

    Not worth the coin if one would ask me.

    Inflation will grip chiner before anything.

    regards

    chuck

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  8. chuck bennett

    Fly,

    That Black Dragon meeting is being done in Hong Kong this december. Shall I go in your sted? or are you coming with?

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  9. JakeGint

    Late night post, mostly a respose to teacher-based frustration rage, but there’s also a nice dollar chart for your perusal too.

    ___________

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  10. Brack Drago Bravefraps

    Oh, fetus soup so dericious – you come get some right chicken rooey!!

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  11. shirley

    have lived and worked in nanjing and will be returning in february for more of the same. my friend and former student who is a working in a chinese hedge fund says the housing is yes, a bubble. difficult for me to judge, but renting is extremely expensive in shanghai and nanjing, too!

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  12. StocksRider

    Even if they are building a bubble, the sheer magnitude of population waiting in ranks to graduate to the “middle class” is mind boggling. It is much like India from the perspective of domestic population providing the next leg of growth.

    What you said about inflation resonates with me though. They fucking manipulated the numbers it seems when they came up with the 3.5% rate couple of weeks ago. Look at the individual components and it is clear. Can’t help but wonder that they always have the option of releasing their leg off the pegging pedal.

    Must feel good to be them.

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  13. flyaway18

    My kids must wonder what the hell is going on in my bedroom when they hear me laughing hysterically in the middle of night. Tonight it was the honorable Mr. Limm and gorden sheep that brought tears to my eyes. Fly, your site is always good for a hearty laugh besides making coin.

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  14. Trading_Nymph

    You know this Nymph has been watching and blogging about this china bubble building all the way back in April of 2009 on another site…..for over a year and a half I have been amazed that no one cares at all about it. When it finally goes pop it is going to be amazing….Alpha is right, there is so much graft, bad loans,hot money, etc….plus a super huge surplus in materials piled up…just a mess over there. In hindsight, I should have played the forming bubble when I saw it….didn’t do it cuz I thought pros would spot it and stop it…nope, that was an important lesson for me to learn.

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    • alphadawgg

      Nymph, the fianl stage, or bubble, in a speculative market is when people ignore the fundamentals and trade purely on “technicals” and emotions because lots of money can be made. As we know, speculative bubbles can last longer than people realize, and in the case of China, it can go on and on until it reaches its tipping point . What and when that is, is anyones guess, but it will eventually come. This doesnt mean investors and trders should avoid China. They just have to be prepared to get out before the proverbial fortune cookie crumbles,

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  15. Late Night Thought
    Late Night Thought

    May be time to sell my longs. I am a net seller.

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  16. FIG

    This market still has not broken. VXX and TZA are way under water and going lower. When will fly stop this nonsense. Chiner is not going to implode overnight like we did. They are much too smart compared to us. I remember in college all of the economics professors were chinks. There is a reason for that, they aint dumb.

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  17. Le Fly

    Fig

    Shut up. You are a perma bull. Never offer me advice

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  18. Cascadian

    Seems odd that China is said to have thousands of empty units, but prices are doubling every year on condos. Only in a planned economy I guess.

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    • FIG

      and a billion people looking for a place to live in the big city. We have a real problem in this country with more units than our population could ever use. In China, they have a massive wave of people moving to the cities from the countryside. Yes, they currently cannot afford to live in luxury, but as their economy grows, all of their housing will be occupied. Ours on the other hand will never be occupied, and will be left to rot for a generation.

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  19. Helicopter Ben

    Looks like the trade is be long A.B.T.D (Anything But The Dollar) going into the November Fed meeting when the Bearded clam will unleash the Mother of All QE’s… Get ready for Hyperinflation!

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    • FIG

      Yep. This is just the beginning of massive amounts of QE that wont amount to shit. I figure this economy will last for another 2 years. At that point, expect rioting in the streets because the dollar will be completely worthless.

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  20. go2mars

    Trade war is on, and the USA is on the sneaky offensive via inflation. No need to artificially lower your currency to provide domestic employment and production of goods when you can just fuck up the currency through inflation. Then you aren’t a bad guy like Japan. Obama the great wins again?

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  21. go2mars

    No need for Smoot-Hawley if you use inflation. It’s still technically free trade, but you’ve changed the playing field just as much anyways.

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  22. go2mars

    Result for stock market?

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  23. go2mars

    And Fly, if your 50% cash had been in Canadian dollars, it would be up 5% instead.

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  24. ruggyup

    Well boys and girls this ancient one knows for a time-honored fact that those who think they have the chicoms all figured out are as naive as the guy buying Chun King chow mein in case lots. Are you more prescient than the inscrutable? Turn your dragon breath to Brazil. Think future, examine that economy, politics, resources and the citizen’s mindset. A friend of mind, a Brazillian native living now in the U.S. just came back from a two week business trip and said the people in Rio are walking the streets, even at night. The crime rate has been squashed and people are out spending. You heard it here. Think offshore oil service.

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  25. C_Farley

    ADBE (Adobe Systems inc.) only down 20% today

    EBAY only down 5% today

    Can the Fed reverse these……? POMO Bitch!

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  26. Testicules

    Overheard at Team “O” ver Headquarters…

    Ok…Summers replacement….Muslim….Female….and Lesbian….

    holy chit man…dees could take some time hommes

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    • TraderCaddy

      Also must be a professor from Harvard or U. of Chicago with no real world experience. An avowed Marxist or Socialist is preferred.

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  27. Testicules

    Definition of ASCENDANCY

    : governing or controlling influence : domination

    I’m bored…had time to kill…

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  28. Russian saylor

    adding to AEM long…
    Chinese housing bubble is so yesterday.. let’s talk gold.

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  29. MonAcoubsborn

    Not too long ago discovered anb important toenail funugs product thta I assumed I would share with everyone. I’ve suffered for years and have tried everything but that is the one product that worked. Cheers!

    __________________
    [url=http://www.fitnails.com/toe_nail_fungus_a/168.htm]Toe Nail Fungus[/url]

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