The market faked both a breakout and a breakdown today, churning investors in the meat grinder because it’s fun. I’d be remiss if I didn’t say “today means nothing. Tomorrow means the world.”
Big jobs numbers due out tomorrow, which will definitely set the tone for the market going forward. There is a certain sense out there that we are about to break out to a new range. Before that happens, the economy needs to show signs of life, else there will be ample reason for a sell off. Of course I can go on and on about FPE’s and p/s ratios of some of the tech names out there. But, once again, they are merely today’s stars, not “the market.” When you are gauging “the market,” you look at big cap stocks. For the most part, those names are not incredibly overvalued. They are more mid-range and can go either way, depending on the economy.
It is my belief, the economy is getting markedly worse. However, that does not mean tomorrow’s numbers will be bad. Who knows what type of welfare related jobs program the government concocted over the past month. Remember, this is NOT a battle of truth. This is a battle of sentiment, vis a vis propaganda.
For now, the bulls are benefiting from the lies come out of DC. Frankly, I don’t see a reason for them to stop lying, at this moment in time.
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is gold down on a good jobless claims number because less QE2 anticpated? is good news tomorrow bad for the market and gold?
Tomorrow will be full of more lies, no way they release a bad number prior to elections.
gold goes to 2k before end of second Q in 11
Well, if Zero hedge rumor is right, were breaking 10%. That would virtually guarantee QE2. But, zerohedge has alot of rumors that never pan out.
So, yes, a bad number could potentially be a nightmare for bears–especially in XLE and XLB. But, any rally would hit a brick wall, as XRT and XLY take a hit. That kind of conflict between sectors should be healthy for VXX–even if market is flat.
What about such scenario:
Bad job number = Bad economy = Worse prospects for corporations. Therefore equities make no sense, and, should QE2 be deployed, the money flows into other asset classes.
if it flows into DBC and USO,
XLE and XLB will catch a bid–
whether or not they deserve to.
Their job is to help get the economy on its feet. Lying is partially needed to accomplish this, so, in effect, they are doing a good job.
On an unrelated note, what do you think about Prop 19 in Cali? As silly as the “pot debate” is, it really could be the legislation that saves California’s ass.
“Their job is to help get the economy on its feet. Lying is partially needed to accomplish this, so, in effect, they are doing a good job.”
This is how Flash Crashes happen……..
what? you only believe/believe in republican lies?
why would the economy need to do anything to validate what the market does, as this is infrequently the case? Remember when IBM was down a bunch ah then the next day we went up like 2.5%? There are always ample reason to sell.
the economy is like meatloaf in my garbage disposal. The market is uptrending.
Maybe you can tutor me one day, reveal all of your secrets.
Well, maybe you should start reading up on chessNwine’s commentary and John Lee’s. They seem to be doing alright.
http://chartsgonewild.com/
the tape has been shit all week so far.so who gives a shit what the numbers are tomorrow . if everyone expects qe2 to be helicoptered,then its all baked in………………..not………………….been a bull trap.
It is easy so far – buy every dip,one day it might not work.
untill than…
I feel a great relief now that i have been given this blessed opportunity to get long again and collect upon my daily 40 points…thank you kind sirs
Here is a Gallup Poll take on Sept. unemployment. It’s at 10.1% up from Aug. 9.3% and most came at end of the month so there are doubts it will be in the formal Government release- especially before the election. Underemployment is @ 18.8%.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/143426/Gallup-Finds-Unemployment-September.aspx
Danny
I couldn’t care less about charts. Everything is based around fundamentals, including this rally.
Nsaid
Tell that to the people looking for jobs.
Fly,
What else can they do? short of implementing govt sponsored work programs. Perceptions are very important and their lies make people “feel better”. I’m not saying it’s noble.
Lies like “Change you can believe in” are already very popular. In the long run, people don’t feel better. And you are right about the nobility of liars.
My wife, who works for the School system, says they have been averaging about 400-500 resumes for every opening.
I have a friend who has been unemployed for almost two years, has several useful degrees, great experience, and he has sent out over 600 resumes and had 3 interviews where he was competing against about 40 finalists for the job opening.
He tells me that he now has several resumes where he took out the degrees and put stuff in there like an Associate degree from a junior college and made up past. jobs to fit the opening.
He is down to looking at cleaning out rental cars when brought back by tourists.
Very sad what is happening.
Looks like corporations now have a great bargaining power to cut more on wages and improve profit margins.
wtf,where you been dude,the american worker has had his knees chopped off a long time ago my friend.if/when they come after carpenter,electrician,plumber,steel worker, and teamsters………….fucking game over. riots in the streets, and hopefully, DEAD AND MURDERED POLITICIANS! my dream for christmas, every politician dies from cancer before new years,or get run over by a truck…let em take their fucking pick.
tc,i watched my girl go from being an international sales trainer @85k a yr right down to a checkout job at the local market paying 9 bucks an hour, and at our age,its not a good sign. costco is opening a new place 5 min from the house,she wants me to close up shop,after being self employed for over 10 yrs.not for 11 dollars an hr.no one realizes this,but if this stays this way for an extended period of time,by the time we retire,we will have very reduced funds,before i was self employed, i was pulling down close to 70k a yr,working at ups…….so going forward,if this happens to all of us in one way or the other,we will all receive alot less than we anticipate from so-sec.so when these idiots talk about so-sec going broke,i say bullshit,cause with a substancial amounts of wages not made over the course of some yrs,will surely reduce everyones rates. you wont know it now,but when they take that”10 yr” figure of the most you ever make…….dont be surprised how these last few yrs, and then some willl play out….employment #’s tomorrow, a fairy tale in my gut
http://www.caseyresearch.com/editorial/3731?ppref=GLD197ED1010C
“But most disturbing to the average American is the falling position of the U.S. relative to the rest of the world. In brief, Americans won’t take kindly to the notion that they can’t continue earning, say, $10-40 an hour, for doing exactly the same thing a Chinese will do for $1-4 an hour.
What’s going to happen is that the Americans’ earnings are going to drop, while those of the Chinese are going to rise, meeting someplace in the middle. Especially when the Chinese works harder, longer, saves his money, and doesn’t burden his employer with all kinds of legacy benefits, topped off with lawsuits. “
I know what you are saying and after you factor in health insurance premiums skyrocketing, especially as you get older, I can understand..
Depending on your age and stage in life as well as the business, it may very well be better at $11.00 an hour with health insurance paid for, a 401K (as little as it may be), and not having to worry about the business 24/7. Just clock in and clock out and have a direct deposit of the paycheck.
Don’t know the answer but understand the frustration.
Can i get a muthafuckin’ end o’ day meltup???
One month was not enough?
i missed that one
Stuff already has been coming out that the jobs number will be dismal. So it is probably mostly baked in already. No real sell off until after the election is over. Bears, hold on to your shorts, you just might take a real shit in them over the next couple of weeks.
My dear Le Fly: The numbers should be awful but the ministry of truth will publish whatever they want us to believe. If history is any guide the number will be forgotten by 2PM or noon next Monday as we wring our hand on options expiration. I greatly fear the meat grinder you speak of though.
My business has taken a severe downturn in the last 90 days. Panic button stuff.
In fact, I hear one being hit right now. Gottan run.
ROFL
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6964O020101007?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FbusinessNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Business+News%29
Fed to target a higher than normal inflation level. Who could have seen this coming?
http://readtheprospectus.wordpress.com/2009/06/10/inflation-deflation-and-wealth-redistribution/
Asset owners rejoice. Fixed income serfs (Joe Punchclock and Grandpa Curmudgeon) get bent. That is all.