I sold 75% of my PKX position, north of $102.5.
I bought 20,000 TZA @ $6.86. And, I bought 5,000 VXX @ $26.33.
This market was invented for people like me. Do yourself a favor and stick to spectating.
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FIG!
Been in TZA since the first hybrid overbought reading a while back.. do you have a price target?
$2,000
$2,000! Fuck Yeah!
Reading your blog, it might seem easy, but moving the way you do, like a shadow in the darkness, with your invisibility cloak and shit, fuggedaboutit.
D9K
I know, I know I can’t add to my short bearish bias cuz it’s too heavy…but after a few days of this I guess I should find some type of long to hedge a bit…which is SO hard for me to do cuz it’s so ugly and AAPL topped finally, I hope….well, my article says so, so it must be true..
Feel free to add, if you are so inclined. Other side of the mountain here.
Oh, by the way, The PPT wins again.
Lol…FINALLY, no need to do that hedgie thing….and for the PPT it always does. I did like the fact that both Nymph Fibo and Fly PPT pointed to the same direction for AAPL……………Right now I am sitting here being amuse by Talking Cats as we roll, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XGHsvBf2mWY&playnext_from=TL&videos=8nwHPAulwZU&feature=sub
love those darn talking cats….but I also like Glee so it says a lot.
And how did the PPT win again?I have to say I’ve been following your discussion very closely in the last two weeks, I would say that the PPT is not nailing anything special. I actually started shorting exactly when the hybrid was at its peak., the market continued to go higher. I did hold the short. At the close yesterday I was only minimally in the green. At today’s opening, I am slightly in the red. It seems like a wash to me. If the market crashes today, which is questionable, then maybe the PPT wins. But this uncertainty and chop is definitely not being predicted by anyone.
Indeud. From an Insider..
“Dear Jim,
The BP crisis in the Gulf of Mexico has rightfully been analysed from the ecological perspective. People’s lives and livelihoods are in grave danger. But that focus has equally masked something very serious from a financial perspective, in my opinion, that could lead to an acceleration of the crisis brought about by the Lehman implosion.
People are seriously underestimating how much liquidity in the global financial world is dependent on a solvent BP. BP extends credit – through trading and finance. They extend the amounts, quality and duration of credit a bank could only dream of. The Gold community should think about the financial muscle behind a company with 100+ years of proven oil and gas reserves. Think about that in comparison with what a bank, with few tangible assets, (truly, not allegedly) possesses (no wonder they all started trading for a living!). Then think about what happens if BP goes under. This is no bank. With proven reserves and wells in the ground, equity in fields all over the planet, in terms of credit quality and credit provision – nothing can match an oil major. God only knows how many assets around the planet are dependent on credit and finance extended from BP. It is likely to dwarf any banking entity in multiples.
And at the heart of it all are those dreadful OTC derivatives again! Banks try and lean on major oil companies because they have exactly the kind of credit-worthiness that they themselves lack. In fact, major oil companies, conversely, spend large amounts of time both denying Banks credit and trying to get Bank risk off of their books in their trading operations. Oil companies have always mistrusted bank creditworthiness and have largely considered the banking industry a bad financial joke. Banks plead with oil companies to let them trade beyond one year in duration. Banks even used to do losing trades with oil companies simply to get them on their trading register… a foot in the door so that they could subsequently beg for an extension in credit size and duration. For the banks, all trading was based on what the early derivatives giant, Bankers Trust, named their trading system: RAROC – or, Risk Adjusted Return on Credit. Trading is a function of credit bequeathed, mixed with the risk of the (trading) position. As trading and credit are intertwined, we might do well to remember what might happen to global liquidity and markets if BP suffers what many believe to be its deserved fate of bankruptcy. The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) has already been and will be further undermined by BP’s distress. They are one of the only “hard asset” entities backing up this so-called exchange.
If BP does go bust (regardless of whether it is deserved), and even if it is just badly wounded and the US entity is allowed to fail, the long-term OTC derivatives in the oil, refined products and natural gas markets that get nullified could be catastrophic. These will kick-back into the banking system. BP is the primary player on the long-end of the energy curve. How exposed are Goldman sub J. Aron, Morgan Stanley and JPM? Probably hugely. Now credit has been cut to BP. Counter-parties will not accept their name beyond one year in duration. This is unheard of. A giant is on the ropes. If he falls, the very earth may shake as he hits the ground.
As we are beginning to see, the Western pension structure, financial trading and global credit are all inter-twined. BP is central to this, as a massive supplier of what many believe(d) to be AAA credit. So while we see banks roll over and die, and sovereign entities begin to falter… we now have a major oil company on the verge of going under. Another leg of the global economic “chair” is being viciously kicked out from under us. Ecological damage is not just an eco-event on its isolated own. It has been added to the list of man-made disasters jeopardizing the world economy. The price tag and resultant knock-on effects of a BP failure could easily be equal to that of a Lehman, if not more. It is surely, at the very least, Enron x10.
All the counter-party risk associated with the current BP situation means the term curve of the global oil trade has likely shut down. Here we have yet another credit-based event causing a lock-up in markets that will now impede trade and commerce. It looks like an exact replication of the 2008 credit market seizure could ensue all over again – and it could probably be a lot worse. The world is in a far more delicate state now.
Although never really discussed, the world is highly reliant on BPs provision of long-term credit to many core industries. Who makes good on all the outstanding paper that so many smaller oil, gas and electricity companies, airlines, shipping companies, local bus, railway and transportation networks that rely on BPs creditworthiness and performance for? It doesn’t take a genius to figure out how this could all unwind. If BP has to be bailed-out, like a bank, the system will have to print even more unimaginable amounts of money.
The market, intellectually lazy and slow to realization, as it often is, probably has not woken up to it yet – but the BP crisis could unleash damage similar to the banking crisis. A BP failure through bankruptcy could make Lehman look small in comparison, and shake the financial house of cards we live in even more severely. If the implicit danger of the possibilities imbedded in such an event doesn’t make an individual now turn towards Gold at full speed, it is likely that nothing will.
Respectfully yours,
CIGA Pedro
“
BP failure would be no big deal. Their assets are mineral, other companies would buy up their resources and keep producing oil from them. The banks assets are paper, so bank assets could all burn up into nothingness.
There will be just a transfer of assets from one owner to another. Not a big deal compared to the credit bubble.
Obama hates the English.
Congress will bleed BP dry
‘ no idea what the market impact will be
I bought TZA @ $6.41, VXX @ $25.55, that’s right, I’m a badddddd mother fucker.
Would you happen to know the Ape with a coach bag?
I never met the guy. Maybe at the next convention. Seriously, I’m a bad mother fucker because I watch your moves.
There was a wallet about that….
…but you happen to pull this shit while I’m in a transitional period so I don’t wanna kill … But I can’t give you this case, it don’t belong to me..
You must be Jules, which would make you Vincent. Let’s get down to brass tacks, gentlemen. If I was informed correctly, the clock is ticking, is that right, Jimmie?
3:32pm
Lawmakers OK temporary guarantee program for banks
If manipulated for legislation, expect a short political relief rally.
Just closed out my 6/30 SPY puts, still holding VXX.
In almost all cash now.
Futures will be up by 150 tomorrow morning. Can’t stop this train.
Fly’s right … best for pikers to be Peeping Toms here rather than trying to keep up with the volatility … wait for it, a better entry is coming.
http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2010/06/22/tea-bagged/#comment-164834
I am confused your last post. ” Too late to short/hedge due to rally back to 1035″,,,,,you meant 1135? then go short/hedge? Thanks.
My mistake … you are correct, 1135!!!
Thanks. I am going with your wave!
The volume on this move up for VXX is below average. Just as I thought. Careful with the exit point.
Setting us up for a vicious squeeze during FOMC. Bonds,yen ,dollar ,Vix all betting on a hawkish or neutral statement. Dangerous bet.
The Fed has zero reason to be hawkish tomorrow. A re-tag of 10600 is possible. Even though it might only last for 1 minute.
Dude, I don’t know what channel you’re watching, but you need to pick up the “clicker” and change it.
Eggsactly!
Then you get 200 spx points to the downside to really bank coin.
At 10:15 AM today on the previous thread everybody bullish. “Time to go long”.
Now we close down 150. Everybody bearish.
What crazy muthafokkers posting here.
“There is no harm in being sometimes wrong — especially if one is promptly found out.” – John Maynard Keynes
I’m short term bullish from 1088 to 1135 … Intermediate bearish from 1135 to 945 …. long term bullish from 945 to ???
Uh, yeah, that does a whole lot to help anyone MAKE MONEY…
I’m long term bullish from 0 – ?????
I beg to differ, sir.
make money i will,
alls you got to chill,
TZA i bought,
til it hits the $2000 jackpot.
…….be seeing you.
NUMBER 6
Option 1 – Fed says – we keep things same. Hoenig dissents. Markets rally. If Hoenig doesn’t dissent, Market goes into panic thinking who could tame Hoenig other than a full blown crisis.
Option 2 – Fed says – we increase the rate……..Not happening! unless Fed is interested in saving Europe from recession. Ergo, not happening.
They have a built in excuse with the “oil spill” and the “deep water drilling ban” disrupting economic activity along with the “euro problem” to stay the course for now pending signs of overheated growth or inflation.
The minute the oil spill hit should we of started shorting bp down from 60’s to 20’s just never gave it much thought stuff happens and it goes over your head?
got caught with my hand in the coffers
My hands are in the coffers too, not worried though… Uncle Ben won’t let us down.
zero hedge has been speculating lately about the inevitability of a politically instrumented melt-up before the midterm elections. have you considered suchness?
The permabear crowd has leaned short for almost this entire rally.
It makes sense they’d come up with a pre-emptive excuse for their next loss.
http://www.businessinsider.com/everyone-who-got-this-rally-wrong-2010-4
Im actually bearish post FOMC week, again. But, careful following people that are ALWAYS bearish. You’ll end up underperforming the market for 5 years at a time like “200% short” Bob Prechter.
Yeah. Prechter and some other perma-bears, U don’t need 2 pay 4 a subscription. Just make a tape recording for yourself that says “The market is going to go down from here” and play it to yourself every single day at market close. Of course there are also perma-bulls, where your tape recording needs to say “The market is going to go up from here” every day.