FNM and FRE are down over 40% this morning. The worst ecological disaster in modern history is ongoing and yet the Dow is down a measly 20 points. Something doesn’t jive, if you know what I mean.
The Obama administration is attempting to nationalize a foreign oil company and people seem to be cool with it, due to the oil spewing into the Gulf. Does that make any sense to you? This is some seriously fucked up shit. Unfortunately, the answers to our problems are not to be found in the wonderful/splendid Republican party. They are all corrupt and deserving of the guillotine.
ATPG is finally in full recovery mode. I feel the stock is still 50% cheap.
With my money, I am waiting for the market to speak to me. Thus far, it’s being very quiet and ambiguous. However, I am emphatic about it going substantially lower by the end of Summer. With cap gains going up from 15% to 20% in January 2011, the BP disaster and European banks in dire need of more capital, a severe sell off is all but guaranteed now, just in time for the debut of Wall Street 2, coming 9/27.
Top picks: VXX, ATPG, SD and GNK
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fig.
I sold half my atpg yesterday. Having some strong sellers remorse. Gonna let the rest ride off into the GOM sunset. That whole area seems like, well a disaster
“ATPG” doesn’t seem to care the markets are red.
Summer sell off, maybe…but the gas prices will be higher most likely.
Took on a small position in VXX yday. WIll add today. Threw a few options spreads out over the past week, mostly bearish. Still holding some long positions, but likely to bail in the next few days.
I want options expiration to get behind us so I can get a clearer portrayal of price action before I get too wild.
BP is toast.
jibe.
Jive. What Obama spews.
Are there figures for the stock exchange during the oil boom of early 1900s era? I wonder if the circumstances of history might be repeating themselves again. And i mean our reaction to the corrupt oil barrons of that age.
Something doesn’t jibe, Cap’n Morgan.
_____________
The Repub party and the Dem party are the same in most ways. Really there is only 1 political party in the U.S. The Special Interest Groups Legally Bribing Congress and the President through Campaign Contributions party.
Funny thing about political parties. People argue about ideologies, just as if their party politicians actually believe in the ideology they spout off in order to get votes. It doesn’t seem to matter as much what their ideology is, as it matters how corrupt they are. But then our one party is pure as the driven snow and as efficient as a fine Swiss watch– if one’s belief is that Special Interest Groups should rule the country 100%, and that taxpayers and consumers should have no voice in government.
TLT is forming a triangle…looks about to breakout….also $TNX and $TYX are looking to break down.
Right now, Obama is telling the BP execs that he’s got enough evidence for criminal prosecutions and they’d better do what he suggests or they PERSONALLY will be held to account ….he doesn’t need to nationalize to buy himself political cover and he doesn’t want to battle the UK on the matter.
It is possible though that I’m giving him too much credit.
Hey, if somebody might be doing something right for the GOM, let’s be glad 4 that, as long as it appears that way. A lot of my family members live down there.
For ATPG and other Nat Gas Plays….this is what I wrote in my weekly review of this week last Friday, fwiw,This is for Tomorrow……. “HOW TO TRADE ON IT. With the UNG finishing the rolling over of their Contracts and probably our weekly data from the EIA/DOE showing a bigger build of Nat Gas inventories, it may be a good day to re examine any of your Nat Gas holdings you may be long in.”…………………………………..this entire Nat Gas rally could be the common UNG rollover rally, and if it is, it will fade starting about 10:30 tomorrow so you may want to watch that.
ATPG’s production is now 65% oil. Besides with NG down 4% and ATPG up 10%, who really cares about the UNG rollover? It means nothing in cases like this. Take a couple of steps back and look at the bigger picture.
So just eat a sandwich until 9/27?
The Spanish could care less about their banks right now…they are all watching soccer.
…and they are all crying
quint is dead on. just got back from spain a month ago. every block has a construction crane setup with zero work going on, it takes 5 govt workers on every corner to empty each little trash can and when soccer is going on the city completely shuts down. bank and austerity issues are the LAST thing on their minds right now.
BTW, Matt Simmons has been prove right.
…says the guy that’s “75% long”.
The more Fly postures this “heads I win tails you lose” message, the more I think he’s actually a 5-digit retail investor. This blog is a huge part of his income.
egregious. that is all.
You’re new around here. Right?
I remember when Fly’s site was orange.
So, no.
Nice avatar!
Well fucknut, if you have been around here that long then your comments are just assinine (sic) and you should be banned for idle stupidity.
It’s so cute – you using fly’s “sic” meme. So cute.
If he says jump you say how high
Nice to know you.
You’re Banned.
Doesn’t appear so.
HA!
That’s correct.
The Fly is God.
Should Spain lose their match to Swiss. Spanish banks will tank in shame, the Euro will continue its downward march, the Swiss Frank will crank higher, along with the SPY. My money is taking a rest while I watch more soccer. The VXX is looking interesting.
I love this type of market.
The Dow will hand you 40pts by the end of the day
Agreed.
The market recovers from recessions. It’s called the business cycle. Despite the fact that over 200+ years of history, the market always has recovered, people think “this time it’s different!”. Thank god for “This time it’s different!!!”, because it blinds investors from looking at the 200 years of history. The market goes up. It does. Without fail. If it looks like it won’t, the government will make sure it does, and last time I checked, equities are a decent inflation hedge.
While you guys keep yelling “this time it’s different!”, I’ll be buying and holding, while concentrating on this market 1/50th the time.
Well said sir.
Equities are NOT a good inflation hedge.
WTF are you talking about?
A number of writers on the Net are saying that, e.g. dohmencapital.com
The idea is that IF we ever have hyperinflation (We don’t yet of course) then the price of everything will go up, including stocks. So people will need to own stocks that rise in price, in order to hold onto their purchasing power, because cash will become trash, being able to purchase less and less each month.
WIth inflation, most companies see reduced profits. Dr Fly is correct: WTF! Or is it different this time? I liked your comment until I read the last line which made my stye spurt some pus.
It depends on what kind of pricing leverage you have. Is demand inelastic? If so, you can pass all the inflation on.
The company screen comes down to one question:
To what degree can [company] pass their rising input prices on to their consumers?
Here is a lil secret on how *we* made money on super high inflation environments: you sell your goods below your competition, grab all possible market share and with increased cash flow you become a loan shark where you make your money back, and some. You just need some sophisticated software to balance correctly how much you lose selling goods in relation to the financial gains. Cash is trash, but in a high inflation environment velocity of money greatly increases so there is actually demand for it… Any other type of businesses will only come out even, except for warehouses hoarding goods.
Don’t blame me. Just reporting what the idea is about stocks being an inflation hedge. If you disagree, tell it to dohmencapital.com or any of the other writers who wrote about it and believe it. I am agnostic about it myself. It does make sense that profits might decrease for companies in an inflationary environment, because their costs would increase. But it seems that commodity tracking stocks at least would do well. Too bad there isn’t a commodity tracking stock for coffee. At least I don’t know of one.
try ALEX for coffee not to mention the RE
After the way the market misbehaved itself the last two months, 40 points per day will no longer suffice. We are now entitled to at least 100 points a day.
Bad news is being bought, bet accordingly
Fly-
Much love for all the information shared, the site is second to none. Any thoughts on PQ as nat gas play?
Nationalize BP? Actually, Fly, I am cool with that. We can’t sop up the oil with tea bags. If McCain was in office, we’d be firebombing London right now.