The Brazilian exchange is up 1,200 points today. Asia was strong, as well as Europe. In my estimation, at the risk of a self inflicted castration, there is no fucking way we reverse lower, like we did yesterday. I see GS diving lower. I know, being long 10,000 shares. I see they knocked down SHLD and are trying to knock down X. I know what’s going on.
See, the bears need today. They are trying their best to suck the life out of this rally, to make it vulnerable to a late day reversal, which would definitely destroy any semblance of moral left in this tape. Should the market reverse today, we’re going to tank in fairly short order. Because of this wild eyed theory of mine, I do not think the market will reverse, not after yesterday’s debacle.
The overall breadth of the market is still incredibly strong. I believe in this move so much, I have reduced my cash position to 10%. This is as far as I will go.
In other words: I am “all in.”
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ytc0U2WAz4s 616 500] If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
FIG.
OK… I wasn’t… but now I’m not so sure.
yes….30 year bid to cover 2.87, 4.182%…..even though CNBC hasn’t even announced it yet
Prepare for rally into the close…
I’m like a mule with a spinning wheel trying to figure this out. I think the tape is officially in “skitizo” mode.
you are so fucked. 10% cash position in this tape? LMFAO way to manage risk!
Watch and learn, small pleb.
Remember who you are talking to, fuck face.
FLY’S Right on the money today…This tape has a complete different feel to it then yesterday.
IMO, We’re going higher into the close on more short covering and legit buying as well.
Russian roulette, anyone?
Hey, Who are you calling Fuck Face, I’m Fuck Face and I’ll castrate my own balls off if this market doesn’t close down at least 30% off it’s HOD!
Get out your knife Fuck Face…Don’t forget the blowtorch to cauterize yourself…LOL
I usually respect the shit out of your general market calls but I’m betting the short-side on this one. Looking for a gap fill end of day.
Bet against me, see what happens.
hmmm… not to be a pussy ass bitch but looking at some breadth indicators i may have to reconsider that call
why isn ‘t CNBC Reporting the Auction???? Why the Delay???? Normally they go to Rick S as soon as the results hit?????
OK I am confused, the Bid to cover was weaker…Yield higher…Rick S didn’t give it a grade….didn’t cover ANY of the specifics…this is so Tin Hat for me…..why are they saying it was reasonably good?
Quit getting sidetracked by meaningless stuff.
FXY is all that matters
Watching the direct FX market and about 20 pairs and movements not just a sole etf….still not sure why Cnbc sugar coated a weaker auction, unless I am missing something in my analysis of the auction…then it is totally not meaningless cuz I can correct my understanding of the auction results…so Fly was it a good auction?? Where is my analysis wrong?
Not important. I don’t even want to think about it.
OK, but I need to…cuz still learning…..I think I get it, The bond market didn’t respond to the weaker demand for the bonds cuz they are seeing it as a “Need for less Safety” vs “Less are buying our stuff”……….and the bond people already priced that in based on last months auction? Eur/USD still can’t get thru their 50% retrace….btw next time when the FLY goes all long I think I will just close my shorts and not wait for bigger picture..
You are thinking too much. Go long the stuff that goes up and short the ones going down. That is all. Wall Street changes what it looks at as key indicators almost weekly and since TradeBots control about 75% of daily volume it doesn’t matter. Now that could be depressing if you think too much.
I may be kicked a thousand times but I think there is actual thought behind all of this….if there wasn’t, then I would just build a bot and not even waste my time…..I know the stats already on programmed trades….and yes, Fly’s O/B O/S indicator at PPT worked perfect…yet, I need to learn.
You don’t need to learn all that much. You need to become in tune with the markets vibe. Trade with instinct, more than your mind.
Also, the PPT will help you think, without actually thinking.
Fly speaks the truth if one is a trader but it takes years of experience to trade with instinct and the ebb and flow of the market and most do not last. Investors are a different story. Get a job, get a paycheck and dollar cost average into etfs or mutual funds and one can follow the oversold and overbought indicators, on PPT or otherwise, to lighten up or accelerate purchases. And don’t be afraid to take profits. We just finished one lost decade and are about to have another.
I LOVE TO THINK…that is why I am drawn to all of this, If I couldn’t think I would find no interest. But just like every part of this game there is new Parts of it I must learn.
That is why I came to you Teacher for this new lesson. BUT please, don’t make me read Analyst reports or agree w/that lame Abbey Cohen or FCX up grades…..
hey eur/usd still not breaking that key resistance…and yes Yen movement follows with them…..it’s one inter related package.
She can’t go down with three barrels on her, not three barrels! I think we need a bigger boat.
the game of old maids continues… when to hoard, when to sluff…
Fly, do you have any thoughts on BPT? Do you see any possibility in the US Govt seizing those assets from BP?
BP is off limits for me. Too hard.
It’s Grantor Trust, so it’s not actually part of BP. I wasn’t exactly clear on it either – better to be safe than sorry I suppose.
I misread. BPT is good. Bering Sea if I recall.
The BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (NYSE: BPT) is a United States oil and natural gas royalty trust based in New York, New York. With a market capitalization of US$ 1.6 billion in early 2008, and an average trading volume of 121,000 shares, BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust is the largest conventional oil and gas trust in the United States. Its assets are in the huge Prudhoe Bay Oil Field, the largest oil field in North America, and at the end of 2006 the Trust claimed to have proved reserves of 85.1 million barrels of crude oil.
Standard Oil Company and BP Exploration, both now branches of British Petroleum, set up the trust in 1989. They distribute royalties on a portion of the oil produced from the Prudhoe Bay Oil Field, typically 16% of the first 90,000 barrels of net daily production. In their 2006 Annual Report, the Trust estimated it would continue to make royalty payouts through at least the year 2024
The witch has been burned(and then drown). Start the Bear Hunt!
I say we mirror the FTSE…up 1%
10K is cozy indued.
DON’T FUCK WITH ME, ASSHOLES
Love this site!….My Dad introduced me to it just this past year.
He was an active trader, with amazing intelligence and wit.
Miss him dearly. I will continue to support this site, especially The Fly!
yep, if you read other “stock market sites”, you will just waste your time.
agreed. outside of my own trading style and basic research the fly has become the only financial blogger that matters to my day. after a year or so of reading, gonna finally make the plunge and sign up for the PPT this month. always more to learn.
swishy, swashy, swishy, swashy
I am long that guy’s eyeballs.
SWISHY, SWASHY.
BTW: That’s the actual author. Scary.
Hey Dr. Fly,
At the end of the video, the guy said ” I am not goign on a bear hunt again” . Is that your hidden message?
Nah. I never bothered watching the whole thing. I just like the first 20 secs. I’m too busy and shit.
Book is better. Ours has no picture of the author.
____
I bet John McCain rolls around on the beaches off the Gulf of Mexico to “loosen up.”
Brazilian Market up 1200…And PBR looking very good here…Thank you BP!
ROTFL
“The plebs were the general body of Roman citizens (as distinguished from slaves) in Ancient Rome. They were distinct from the higher order of the patricians. A member of the plebs was known as a plebeian (Latin: plebeius). This term is used today to refer to one who is or appears to be of the middle or lower order; however, in Rome plebeians could become quite wealthy and influential”
Today is a gay gap up day and index gaps get filled
All I see is a broken market till proven otherwise
Trin right now .22, this is the stuff that has been driving me crazy and brought me into FLY 101 Classroom ……………I have to learn to embrace these stupid ass gaps, or at least feel more comfortable with them…….
Broken pipes, broken tools, people bendin’ broken rules.
Take a deep breath, feel like you’re chokin’
Everything is broken
NWY bouncing.
Hey Fly-man notice how “plebs” can actually become quite wealthy and influential 😉
wealthy yes. but how many Fabergé eggs have you got?
What? no egg? no entry in the rich club. back in the sewers with the “wealthy” plebs…
nice call fly… the euro is holding up nicely and the euro/yen is ready to go … that’s all that matters… i think you may be one day ahead of the market though.. today we base near 1080 and tmrw we rally hard…
Crazy Dude is BACK!!! I think he got introduced to ibc right at the beginning of the Feb – May “Get-drunk-buy stocks-athon”, or what I like to refer to as “The good old days”.
where do I get a time machine?
Subscribe to The PPT. All new users get one.
I will dip into my 5 figure account 😉
The Hour of Power approaches. Bears will be MURDERED! HIDE BOO BOO! RUN FOR YOUR LIFE!
Great call today, Sir Fly. Now that VXX is looking cheap again, when should we think about jumping back on it? Mid next week maybe, around $28?
Must admit, I’m all in too … we were so close to what I expected would be the bottom (1018) that the downside was only 30 spx points so not much point in waiting.
Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead!
Who’s still got ATPG?
I do, I do. Why?
I do too .. and SD, GMXR, GDP & KWK
I’ve got lots. I mean a bunch. A veritable shitload if you will. Unfortunately my cost average is a long way from where we are now. I’ll ride it to $25 or $0, whichever comes first.
For those who followed the chart addict at any time previously….
The squeeze pop is immenent on ATPG and the presure is building.
No squeeze is going to get me back even. Nope, I need something crazy like this fucked up administration removing their heads from their collective asses and thinking about what they are doing with regards to our energy industry. I am doomed.
1,087 close on S&P = bear roast…
The IYR is looking too overheated here into last hour,which should stall further XLF rise into the bell. SPY could fall to its R1 pivot
However, there is a tightly consolidated symmetrical triangle in GS 5 min chart. If it explodes upward,its taking XLF with it. Just like BP led the squeeze this morning, next squeeze up needs the squid to participate
You fuckin’ guys are switcheroo nutcases. Short. No, lomg. Short. No, lomg. Short. No, lomg. Short. No, lomg. Short. No, lomg. Short. No, lomg.
Did someone transpose the ‘n’ and ‘m’ keys on your keyboard? Must be a pain.
It’s called BEING RIGHT. You should try it sometime.
What about the times that you’re wrong?
Check my track record. I don’t lose.
Your track record is solid, no doubt. What about GS? I’m long but having doubts.
stick it in the closet
DVAX
http://henryfoolspicks.wordpress.com/2010/06/10/dvax-18-months-of-positive-weekly-obv/
RC was always my favorite tabbed blogger.
Just bought a bunch of BP. I feel like such an asshole.
… and it’s tanking already. Karma.
BP is going to at least the low 20s to mid 20s. Remember all of those people trying to catch falling knives with BSC (Bear Sterns), LEH, and C was supposed to be cheap at about 28-30. The cheap will get cheaper. Better hedge if you insist on gambling.
BP’s problem right now is mostly PR. BSC and LEH’s problem was illiquidity. Not the same thing.
LEH and C owned houses worth less than Zero.
BP owns most of the oil on earth. Its hard to compare them to a bank.
10,160 on DOW is key for close today. We’re goin’ on a bear hunt, we’re gonna catch a big fucking scared one and rip his goddamn heart out…….
First time I saw this, it’s pretty cool for visualizing sectors:
http://finviz.com/map.ashx
Nice.
Are we back to looking for the S&P to retrace to 1120 – 1150? People were so sure that was gonna happen not too long ago.
Somebody wake up CSCO and tell them there’s a rally goin’ on.
yeah, i dumped it today because it didn’t look like it was gonna do anything.
Good move. If it can’t rally on a day like today, it must be needing life support.
Fly, I’m long right there with you. No castration!
anyone holding on to these gains overnight?
holding all stocks (except CSCO which wasn’t moving), got out of some call options.
Sir Fly is a freakin’ space alien magician if there ever was one.
Nice call, amigo.
thnx
I believe…
Though yesterday at some point you said you should’ve been selling instead of buying. Was that just an emotional, hindsight call, or was there some reason that justified yesterday’s loss of gains?
I need to get me some of that PPT steroidal brew you’ve concocted.
Alpha
You still have your PPT credentials or did u lose them?
Email me
For those who followed the chart addict at any time previously….
The squeeze pop is immenent on ATPG and the presure is building.
Fly are you bullish till dow new high or just short-term.
Until we are OVERBOUGHT
…. and MOOOOOOORE!
___
Let’s go, +300 here we come.
If there was more time, I would recommend that you declare +400, as a benevolent act for the plebs.
Sir FLY. how do you feel about your position over the weekend?
What’s up with the ‘yousearenuts’ post always appearing as the last comment?
Is it a “sign” to be heeded?
Scott Wapner on CNBC is a true dorkazoid! Give him the hook!
Some automatic covering towards the end of the session? all my asks hit in the last 5 minutes.
Why is alphadawg’s return being treated like some magnificent homecoming? You guys spent months on the way up making his name into a joke. And rightfully so. The guy was pitifully wrong. Now the market crashes, he reappears (likely looking to bathe in undeserved apologies), and we’re all pretending it’s water under the bridge?
NOT TRUE.
Alpha was bullish before any of us and did great. What the fuck are you talking about?
Wait that was devil dog or something. Right.
Right.
Confusing Devil Dog with me is like confusing George Costanza with Indiana Jones.
Besides, I hate the devil, devils wearing Prada and deviled eggs.
@Kerchew – Asshat you are confusing DevilDog with AlphaDawgg. Get a life or maybe hooked on phonics for reading comprehension.
good too see that the dawwg is back.