The sell off is fierce, amidst a cloud of black smoke. Most stocks are down 4%+, mainly because they belong lower. My positioning is exactly the same as yesterday’s, only because I do not sell into 5% dips. For me, it’s important to maintain the long equity exposure, unless of course I thought we were looking at crash mode.
Essentially, everything is playing out EXACTLY as I predicted. The euro is trash, dollar up and everyone in their mother is busy doing The Hugh Hendry, via [[TLT]] . I do not request accolades from the likes of you (the common Internet leech), specifically because I never wanted them.
On the bright side, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] is green. I am pleased to see that, especially because it is one of my largest long positions.
In short, if you were positioned defensively, prior to today’s dump, bravo. If you are taking hits to the scrotum now, long gold stocks and other bullshit, you deserve a large iBC mug filled with black smoke. I do not believe this is the sell off that starts the mudslide. The PPT is now registering an overall hybrid of 2.40. I will be a buyer when it dips into the 2.30’s. That is all.
UPDATE: I bought 2,000 [[GS]] @ $150.25. And, I bought 10,000 [[VXX]] @ $22.53.
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
kcBill nailed the VXX call yesterday. Why isn’t he up for tabbed blogger status?
He has not requested to be in the running.
“In short, if you were positioned defensively, prior to today’s dump, bravo.”
Well I didn’t ask for accolades from you either.
But thanks.
p.s. You really are GOD, aren’t you!?
“I am conflicted, as the fundies point to higher prices. It’s the contagion that has me worried. Before you know it, we are talking California and NYS debt and default.
“I think it makes sense to hold 20-25% cash and 10% in a downside fav, sans 3x fuckery. You can be long and have fun, just do it in moderation”
pure genius
Look I keep thinking about this whole Europe story and I think this my final opinion on the matter until tomorrow morning 🙂
I was pretty bearish on Eurotrashland until I read that the ECB will except Greek bonds as collateral for any repos done by banks. Slowly but surely most of the outstanding issuance will make its way into the ECB coffers.
Portugal could be in the same boat however their debt is reasonably manageable as they’re around 60% of GDP. Their bonds too can be used at the ECB window too.
I really don’t think Spain is an issue as their debt is around 55% of GDP and they have a longer maturity duration.
Italy has a large debt position and again its duration from recollection is around 7.5 years.
In other words I think the ECB’s balance sheet will just get much bigger spelling the near certainty of much, much higher inflation down the road. How Germany will take that is for another discussion.
So I think the market may be a little too panicked about this. Greece will of course default but it won;’t default in the way we expect them too. The ECB will just end up holding a worthless bag of shit.
That’s it. Of course I can change my position tomorrow. LOL.
Meanwhile gold and oil could zoom over the next few months particularly against the Euro.
I agree j. I’ve been grabbing some positions on this dip.
I think Fly had it right when he said that Europe goes down next, then Asia, then US individual states. Asia should start getting in the news in the next month or so, and then California will start to crack around the same time. I am starting to think FXP is a great play to go with VXX. I will not be putting any money into those plays on a day like today however. I need to see a nice 100 point up day first.
We will not let individual States go down. Not even the ones as fucked up as Kalifornia. Of course, they know that and count on it in continuing their profligate spending.
I really don’t think Spain is an issue as their debt is around 55% of GDP and they have a longer maturity duration.
————————————————————————————————————-
You are missing the point here. Spain is sick with 25% unemployment, so it really doesn’t matter that much if you don’t have TOO much debt if there’s no revenue coming in, even a little debt can be devastating.
I think that none of these countries will default but, BUT, it will take a LONG time for the everyone hating everyone EuroZone to come to terms with bailouts. This means serious economic hit in the eurozone for months, followed by vibrational hit in china, Japan and US to a lesser extent.
Greece is only “”Countrywide”. Not even BSC let alone LEH in terms of progression of things to come. I guess what I am saying is prepare for a 6-12 months of deep deflationary pull until EuroZone followed by UsZone prints like there’s no tomorrow and we start the real hyperinflationary journey to last for 2-5 years and…RESET. Most currencies will be worth a fraction of what they are today in 2-5years time.
1prepare for deflationary drive to last 6-18months
2borrow as much as you can afford to make payments on and let the hyperinflation erode it starting with the new bailout plans in EU and US…. I made a purchase that I didn’t know I had money in the account to pay for so the bridge loan kicked in and my monthly payment on $460K is $885. I am thinking to myself why pay this off? At these rates I might just go buy a whole lot more shit and wait till inflation erases it.
3forget about gold for the next ~12 months. Buy it when EU realizes that they have to print a SHITLOAD of money if they are going to survive.
Due to the fact that Germany suffered hyperinflation in the 30’s ( as opposed to US, Deflation) and due to the fact that much of what happens in the EU depends of what Germany does, it might take a long time before the EU realizes that they will print or perish! Keep this in mind when judging when the printing will begin.
4shotr emerging markets
I think that most of you are morons with few evil motherfuckers SO,
Fuck all of youse cocksuckers
Could someone please buy you a Strunk and White? got a birthday coming up?
Cheers!
Gold Sack is rumored to be negotiating a partial burial with a $1 billion fine. IF the market wasn’t down today that stock would be at 155 .
Goldman is demonstrating their robotic control over the markets today. Their green quote is rather ironic, no?
Yea… I bought some when you did in the last two tranches. It’s the only thing that’s printing green. LOl.
Fly… again what I have been thinking and why I think this is different to the Bear Sterns and subsequent Lehman clusterfuck….
I think it’s different primarily because of the ECB decision to take Greek bonds as collateral. In other words they can’t theoretically go broke any more.
To put that in equivalent terms it would be the same as if the Fed told Bear and Lehman that they would take their bonds without qualification if they appeared at the Fed window.
This to me suggests the ECB will if needed print as much money as needed.
I don’t think the market understands the ramifications of this action. Then perhaps I’m wrong. It ‘s however an important issue to clarify.
Well, the Euro IS down, isn’t it?
_______
The problem you have with that scenario is whether Germany specifically is willing to stand pat and watch their currency go down the drain in order to help non-German speaking people with their lives. I think we are going to have another crisis similar to 2008 because the EU is not strong enough to take on all that debt. Just as our government was unwilling to take the needed steps until we fell into the murderhole, Germans and others need to experience what will happen if they don’t act broadly. We will eventually all have runaway inflation and no one will be safe, but before that, we need another massive sell-off. Notice how every time there is a scare, the EU meets and saves the day will small measures. When push comes to shove, and they admit that the only way to save Greece and others is to expose everyone to massive inflation, the Germans will walk away.
The the big question, FIG… if the Germans are prepared to walk. answer that correctly and one can retire.
positively soylent
It looks as though it is on it’s way to 155.
Migrant Miguel says:
May 4, 2010 at 1:06 pm
Still holding your BML.H from the 12’s?
Yes….Also LARGE positions in C.Z and IGK
I would mention the V.King core holdings but most of the inbred monkeys here don’t “get it”….
Remember Mr. Migrant
“Don’t bring it unless you can bring it.”
Still plenty of dry powder to slurp slurp slurp up gold & silver miners that are still higher than they were a week ago.
Last chance, M. Le Docteur.
______
You know what amuses me cuz I am so easily amused…..BP…..it has a major multiyear Fibo moving average in the 51ish range and it took out that support…but just like a Salmon swimming upstream it is determined to test it as resistance even in a weak market today……………………..tomorrow will be fun cuz the game of guessing the NFP will start….love that game, the number is so silly, but still love the game….never could understand why so much weight is given to surveys of people that don’t know how to get out of surveys…oh well.
You changed your avatar!
Fly, the divy on MTA is far from covering it’s recent loss. Is this unexpected drop more a result of the euro problems and if so how will you deal with it … buy more or bail?
yeah, it’s EURO TRASH FUCKERY.
“The euro is trash, dollar up and everyone in their mother is busy doing The Hugh Hendry . . .”
“. . . . AND their mother . . . ”
Wow, 2 Hendry refs in 1 day. Is this Official Hugh Hendry Day at iBC?
Well, I mean really, Trinchet is the real shit, he is.
How’s that UUP working for you, sweetie?
You got an exit point for VXX?