As we enter earnings season, I will bet you donuts to doorknobs investors severely punish companies that miss earnings expectations, in the most egregious way. Remember, while you smirk at your screen, feeling all good about yourself and shit, the market is entering “guillotine season” with lots of exposed neck, if you know what I mean. While it’s true, I’ve been far too conservative during the recent move higher. It’s also true, there have been numerous times when I have been far too aggressive. Everything balances out, sort of, in the end.
Okay, so going into earnings, I strongly suggest under weighting bank stocks, especially the regionals. Even though I am short CRE, via [[SRS]] , I expect most CRE names to beat expectations. Within tech, there is no denying the cycle is ridiculously beneficial to the majority of semis and networkers. However, just know, China is greatly decreasing funding for 3g network roll out, to the tune of 20+%. I’d avoid names like [[ERIC]] and Alcatel-Lucent (ADR) [[ALU]] , as if they were the black plague.
If I was to bet on one sector blowing away numbers, it would be the chemicals. If you are so inclined, get long a basket and turn the monitor off.
For the most part, earnings will be good, across the board; but will they be good enough?
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I did not buy abk
Quite the historic dip we have here. Now its of course time to buy, on margin, because markets go up. And thats because the Fed lowered rates to 0, 15 months ago.
Can anyone tell me why we reversed higher out of the blue? Huge buy program?
“Taught yourself Pascal” LOL, great new WPDS ad
good stuff.
Thanks for ABK, Fly. The market is near the condition it was in January when it pulled back 8%. I think May be the pullback time – it “may” be that it happens like someone tuned a light switch off.
Bullshit! Stocks will triple every three days for the rest of the year!
Good times!
Wall Street has most egregious feeling today.
CS’rs are getting riiiich in a few names. To much gaming.
This really has the feel of one HOT HOT MF’ing summer.
Kansas City had freeking riot in the Crown Jewel The Plaza this weekend it was like a Spike Lee movie.
And I thought shit took a couple of years to get to the Midwest.
Stairs Up ….Elevator Down
Indeud. Time to wait for the fat lady to sing.
I’m long the PPT.
Isn’t the ppt funding done? Or did they get more funding and that is what is pushing the market to stay even to +40 each day now?
In chemicals I’d take GRA, seasonally speaking.
http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2008/03/09/opinion/09opart2.ready.html
Buy the strong banks, there will be winners taking over the sector. AA is not a good indicator, so get some metals and manufacturers. Have some China shit too.
Fly, can you update your post with a link to a screen for compiling a ‘chemical basket’.
However, the link should only work for us non-piker [sic] types.
http://ppt.ibankcoin.com/industry.php?order_by=hybrid_score_desc&industry_id=29
Valuations are important yes, but just give me my damn 40 points, Its like an addictive drug.
“… pullback or not to pullback … WTF?… that is a question ”
On cnbc.com you can find links to some “experts’ ” view on market direction… at least 3 links related to direction of the market – [1] no-pullback and [2] pullback. OK, so if they vote we have pullback 1:2
Maria Bartiromo: Reading the Fed’s Smoke SignalsUS Dollar’s Strength is Waning:
ChartsMarket Tips: No Pullback, Stocks to Go Higher
As Profits Rebound, Markets Brace for Pullback
Art Cashin: Expect a 3-4% Pullback Going Forward
Busch: Financial Reform a Negative for Equities8 Dow Firms That Will Beat/Miss Forecast: Strategists
Another shale deal …
This time KMP buys (50% JV) into HK’s gas gathering & processing facilities that serve the Haynesville Shale region.
http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/industries/industrials/petrohawk-energy-kinder-morgan-form-joint-venture/
Since APC, we have CXG, ATLS and now HK …. get some shale before it’s all taken!
http://www.ibankcoin.com/peanut_gallery/index.php/2010/02/16/the-mad-rush-for-marcellus/
Deals made: APC, CHK, REXX, ATLS, CXG, HK & XTO
Deals left: SM, GMXR, PETD, GDP, COG, RRC, UPL & SWN ?????