Gold will collapse under a large pile of “Jakegints,” as the ominous “ETF SAVAGERY” takes hold of retail lemmings.
Long dated Treasuries will advance in price, as everything else just loses its luster.
The Vix index will spike, thanks to the great return of volatility and all of its wholesale fuckery.
The euro will fuck itself, while the dollar reigns supreme. This paradigm, incidentally, will put pressure on U.S. exporters.
Commodity prices will plummet, making alternative energy laughable, similar to the grand national practical joke known as “elections.”
Shares of semiconductor companies will drop fast, due to their weak shareholder bases and fickle analyst coverage.
Defensive names, like Kellogg Company [[K]] , General Mills, Inc. [[GIS]] and Kimberly-Clark Corporation [[KMB]] will thrive, while high beta names like Amazon.com, Inc. [[AMZN]] , [[CAGC]] and NetLogic Microsystems, Inc. [[NETL]] suck helmets.
When the risk trade ends, you better lock you fucking doors and punish the kids, for roving bands of “food gatherers” will target your bullshit house for “provision extraction.”
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Spy puts bought Thurs. We’ll see how much real traction this gets.
Over the next few months Fly, despite Mish and others, the North Texas economy is ON FIRE. As I sit here on a late Sunday, a bunch of workers are getting paid overtime to bulldoze a new 2 streets for more houses, because Every f’ing lot down the street has been sold at Higher than the (2007) ridiculous asking price. Builders are selling $1m houses the same day the foundation is poured, makes my jaw drop too.
Same thing happened here last year, we had signs of life in summer 09 and this preceded early recovery everywhere else. I think tbe same is happening now. Denninger continues to be right in the long term but fouls up the short term completely. Heed these words, Fly.
You fucking Texas Tea Baggers will pay a heavy price for that, once Texas Tea turns to shit again.
(clack, clack, clack, clack, clack, clack!)
Hard to hear you over all that clacking.
More ink! We need more INK!
________
Some quotes:
There’s one born every minute.
A builder is a guy who declares bankruptcy every 7 yrs.
It’s different this time.
So you think short home builders in 5-6 years?
Fly, dont hate me b/c you live in a relative ghetto. And, definitely don’t hate me because i spanked your bottom in performance last year. This year you are (slightly) ahead right now, but we still have more than 9 months.
slim, where’s your blog w all your trades again?
Can we stop the politics? I think once we do this, the arguments will end. I will lead by example
No, that’s not it. He’s just another angry pissant. His politics are about half an inch deep, and they are an “effect” of his anger problems, not a cause.
We’re going to get trolls about anything we post on — including our market theories, it happens.
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Little man,
You have no politics whatsoever. All you do is hate a certain group to seemingly show what side you are on via interpretation. You present no position whatsoever and your pseudo-intellectual self-worth comes from correcting others. I can see you just sitting back after one of your posts, closing your eyes and pretending that others are patting you on the back saying “good job, you got ’em this time” – you delusional little man. Just because you are from the east coast does not make you a tough person – that is just another stereotype you live by – a made up Jakey world if you will. You will win this fight because you need to. Your self-worth is wrapped up in The Fly’s blog – I understand. You will fight and smirk to the death. I can move on – no problem. You see, I don’t read and post on Fly’s blog to make digital friends. I actually do it to gain market insight and to hopefully contribute a point here and there so that I don’t feel like a leech. I don’t pay for the service because I don’t need to. My financial security has been set through hard work and a great exit plan. Otherwise, I would be all over the PPT. But you, you have no place to go. You have created a digital world that you must perpetuate. Enjoy your digital friends little man from New York. Oooooooo – just saying New York makes me shiver.
LOL, good thing you’re not “too wrapped up,” Monsieur Le Trol.
We should be charging for this group therapy session.
(Note to Fly — Primal Screeching Pay Site?)
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fig
yikes mr mellow.. what did mrs fly feed you tonight – sauteed freed radicals on arrugula?
As it is written, so it shall be.
yea
Two questions:
1) Is this a prophecy and, if so, do you prophecize any sort of date/timerange for said event?
2) Have you become, suddenly and unalterably, a man of the burlap cloth or at least a gloom n’ doomer? Just when all finally seems right with the world?
and also….
3) If yes to the above, when will you actually GO SHORT?
HB9000
Alas there is no when in when in a clintonesque sorta way.
You’re scaring the kids!
Your prediction is nothing Butt Hole Surfing, and my Elite Eight pick, CREE, is drinking from a fountain, pouring like an avalanche, coming down the mountain.
________
“a great pile of Jakegints”
Indeud.
you mean like chess pieces the bots toss around a board?
Worms the word, baby. Join me in the saloon elevator in a few years.
Eggsellent.
___
“Commodity prices will plummet, making alternative energy laughable”
-But one of your top picks is TAN, go figure, laughable…
Solar is SO last week. Deathly boring as well.
Have you forgotten who our president is?
(In that case, you must have turned off your tv for the two mintues he wasn’t giving a speech somewhere)
Lemmings: lemming suicide is a frequently used metaphor in reference to people who go along unquestioningly with popular opinion, with potentially dangerous or fatal consequences.
Lemmings became notoriously famous because of unsubstantiated myths that they commit mass suicide when they migrate. In most forms it does not appear to claim a conscious suicide but rather accidental mass death due to various factors.
LOL.
______
Yes, I own TAN, amongst many other stocks. But for how long?
Indeed.
Danny and I will be doing “The Hugh Hendry” on your faces, as your stocks get CREEmated [sic].
I am not a man of the burlap cloth. How DARE you!
You and Danny are friends again?
Excellent!
___
I will short stocks when downward momentum is apparent, not before.
ADDENDUM:
When the risk trade ends, without a doubt, Sarah Palin will be caught long out of the money OEX call contracts.
Chortle.
(Watching the diner robber scene in Pulp Fiction right now… fitting, somehow)
__
Tarentino..there is no nuance to his direction or his writing for that matter. he is a rather simple-minded man like most who achieve great wealth and acclaim in Hollywood. Cameron is the high water mark in simple. Or maybe Ron Howard.
Pardon me for stating the obvious.It’s late.
Agree on Cameron. Howard may be one step up, but a decent storyteller. He needs some “growing room” like Clint did. Can you argue w. “Unforgiven?”
And yet, it was the descendant of such gems as “Right turn, Clyde (punch).”
I still think Pulp Fiction was a work of originality, even if derived from comic book sensibilities.
And it saved Vinnie Barbarino’s career! (I’ve always wondered… is that “slouch walk” Travolta effects in PF a Tarantino invention, or did Travolta bring that to the table? Genius)
______________
That said, I think the Coen Bros (collective) and Ridley Scott are my favourite living directors.
_______
Krzysztof Kieslowski…gotta go with my polska brethren here..
Gene Hackman – most underrated actor and our best – Royal Tennenbaums and the French Connection. (and best freakin car chase there ever was) He puts this year’s oscar dolts to shame.
Travolta reminds me of gas. And he could blow up the planet on one badass taco. A sold out hackwhore like De Niro, Pacino, DeCaprio and Austen butcher Scorsese but I give him props for Liotta in Goodfellas – best mob movie ever. Bladerunner Ridley – almost got him for a commercial once.
Would have loved to work with him. Brother is a tool.
all in my oh so humble opinion
There is no such thing as risk, haven’t you been paying attention?
Who knew?
I really don’t need to tell you this, since you already know it; but I’ll say it anyway:
No one gives a shit. And, your bullshit zeeco acct performance cannot compare to my “big ship” performance. It’s like judging the speeds of a Ferrari and a remote control car.
lol.
“Zeeco” account.
I dont’ even know what that is, but it’s sounds like it was invented to be funny.
________
laughing out loud at the “remote control car”
I wrote a six-figure tax check to Treasury in early January. Mind you it wasn’t seven figure gains (yet), but this so far this remote control car is doing donuts. And since we have 4 other businesses, I do not have time to blog this myself. Who knew? I think I should hire you to blog it for me…
Oh, yer an internets rich guy? Kool, me 2 😉
Btw, i need somebody to help me transfer all this Nigerian prince money i got. n e takers?
Between the sock puppets, Fly, apparently I made the mistake you were a serious trader…
wow -thanks for saving our economy. OB thanks you.
Would those be dunking donuts off a prius by any chance?
You throw down BHS but don’t know about Zeeco?!? Ugh, I’ll bet you plopped cassette tapes into your boombox on Saturday mornings at Norwich Whatever College while your roomies gave you dirty looks for putting in those “shitty” tapes, all in the name of cool. Man up, Mister! BHS or Cassettes for Cool?
Say again?
___
Fly:
That sounds like Nostradamus set of predictions.
Now this is our kind of post.
This blog is bullshit. It is just fly sucking jakes dick. Fly threw everybody off the sight that has a different opionion than his . Two loser queers….thats what I see. Good ridance blow boys…..ppt is just a bunch of kids posting stocks . Good luck with that . Fly should be paying you to watch that bag of bullshit .
Troll much, cocksucker?
Still, you gotta admit — It’s rare we get trolls with this level of reading incomprehension.
Word to the guy who took too many headbutts from the Billygoats’ Gruff — Fly and I are on opposite sides of the current trade.
Be sure to get some help with the learning disorder.
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Go home TIMMAY. Mom just made a fresh batch of cookies.
And I think Fly forgot to mention the final goal of those who are making the market dance to their personal rhythm. End goal is to Zimbabwe the US dollar (even though technically this should not happen — they have psychologically prepared the masses already) and extract the power wealth from the American middle class and place it into the pale, quivering hands of the God-like international central bankers. They need to masturbate over their own images, when they become so Godlike. I suppose they represent mankind’s greatest masturbatory triumph.
This is mankind’s end goal. The spent, quivering penis of a filthy rich white man is your destiny.
Yikes, “Onanistic Overload.”
Step that imagery back a couple of octaves, there, Paganini.
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The worst looking commodity by far is ethanol. Look at that chart. http://tfc-charts.w2d.com/chart/ZK/40
That’s like driving the Ferrari hybrid.
Looks like sugar.
Where is the ethanol in this chart priced?
Not sure I understand the bearishness …. sure will get a nice sell off … but tops take a long time to form….we are not even close..not yet
Who are you? Did Tim Knight ghost write this entry for you?
I’ll go one further than Al. We are about to start a downtrend but it will be mild and relatively short in duration. It’s gonna be a one-way market again later this year (September is my guess).
fid
Fly,
The music on this site blows, as of late. Bump some of that Uncle Murda shit. The streets (aka “iBankCoin.com”) love it.
STFU bitch.
cmon Fly you know as well as I do – Sundays are for Charlie Parker or Chet Baker – mellowed out and a tad wistful the weekend is over.
Was at a party Sat. night, was talking with an auto parts sales rep,asked what I do,said I collect unemployment checks since my bank went into receivership…Asked me if I owned a gun,Isaid not at this time. He said he got a 38 and a rifle about 3 months ago,his brother,a pharma rep just got a gun 1 month ago and a friend of his got a gun last week….Said he knew guys that were even reloading their own ammonition. Said he felt assault on middle class will only go one way…get worse. Now normally I would view such observations as bearish on the markets…but it dawned on me…What if the markets are discounting that the american citizen are actually making headway. What if the markets see a complete clensing of Washington soon taking place,and bringing in leaders willing to give away government land to manufacturers to rebuild this country and reenact tarriffs to protect our standard of living…May be wall street is placing its bet on the little guy fighting back.
1994 all over again?
Well, one thing is clear, that’s the only thing that’s going to save Obama in 2012 (like it did Clinton in 96).
______
He will be out of office.
Ok, take a deep breath. Just relax a moment unemployed. I do wish I was a better writer and be able to express my thoughts in a quick condensed form and to the extent I want but I try to be careful not to voice to much. I don’t know where to start but to say perhaps I have been there…. I am sorry to hear that you are unemployed. If there was a way I could help you, I would. I lost everything as well.
I gotta say the best thing that I did was shut the TV down, eliminate the radio and wherever mad dog media exists. I was on of those so scared and so angry. So I started preparing my life to cover all the : what if’s! In a sense I am very aware of my surroundings, I have given myself other routes, I have taken responsibility of my own finances and I have made sure the fucking nanny state is kept a bay. Yet, we can not forget to breath and definitely don’t forget to love. Just compile all of your thoughts, sort them out and move to the next stage. The point I am trying to make is that you can not sit and stand still. That is when bad shit happens. Obtain some guns, make urself more comfortable. If one day you will need them, then great, if not, great to.
I could down so many avenues but I am writing this for you because I sense your pain.
The only advice I have is to be ready for anything life strikes out. Cause the minute you stop living is the minute you start dying. We don’t need concerned Americans as yourself somewhere out in left field. So, make some plans. Get some ideas together and sort thru them. Get away from the friends for a bit. I had to. Mine are all very politically active and I was getting panic attacks.
There will forms of anarchy. How in depth and to the extent, I am not sensing it yet. The next few years are going to plagued with a lot of Truths, consequences, trials and tribulations.
Follow your instinct unemployed.
what the hell is a gun going to do? how can it make you more money? now you have a gun and still broke. must be a guy thing…hey I know – you can shoot holes in your 410k statements! and who’s going to attack the middle class now that you’ve announced you’re broke? you have no money as a middle classer and there is nothing to steal except all that cheap Chinese shit that ‘s clogging the garage of your short sale. Breathe easy there fella, I think you’re safe – ain’t nothin left to take. They already took eveything you had and they didn’t use a gun. Don’t you get it?
I agree 100%.If any one ask me for food or money,I’ll give it to them. My point wasn’t anarchy. It wasn’t even about guns,its about awareness. My point was we need manufacting to come back to this country,we need productivity to return to this country and maybe the markets are saying people are serious about voting in the people that can make that happen
Fly,
Sorry, I must say this:
Jake,
You truely are a Fox-inspired nitwit. The type that Ailes and friends count on to put money in their pockets – the ignorant scared little people that believe that diversity destroys this Country. All you do is troll around attacking people that have non-tea bagger opinions; however, you never really say what you are for, support, or how what you believe should be done can be done.
This is a personality disorder that can only be explained by a small man that got his ass kicked throughout his youth and blessed the day that computers were invented so that he could hide behind his screen and google key works to fill in his mad lib like diatribes. This site has become mind numbing because we can always expect to see Jakey trolling around to attack people that “watch too much MSNBC” or “don’t read enough”. You are a pitiful hanger-on to Fly’s site that feels entitled to spew your nonsense because you were blessed with a fucking tab – you most certainly peed yourself the day Fly asked you to join. Well, take a lesson from Shedder, Ragin Cajun, Chart Addict, etc. and limit the spread of the virus that is Jakey. You obviously have no other life except the one that you make up for people that actually believe you bring value. Who’s dick did you suck to be given free rein on this site? (No offense Fly – I am certain that you have never personally met Jakey)
This site used to be full of people that tolerated each other with the end result being a few extra bucks in their pockets at the end of the day. Now, it’s all about you pissing on others when you have a need to feel superior. You truely are a bore little man. Why don’t you stay on your tab where you make up a solid 45% of the comments. You obviously like talking to yourself.
BTW, this comment is in response to a previous Fly post.
Fly – I understand if you find the need to ban me for attacking one of your boys, but I can’t stand that yappy little dog.
LOFL.
I have a suggestion. Maybe you ought to peruse the site a while before you post next… get to know some of us?
It might limit some of these embarrassing drunken rants, and help you to start feeling better about yourself.
But first —
Deep breaths, junior. Deep breaths.
_________
Addenda — Second to last para. You want to use “boor” there, not “bore.”
😉
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Seriously Little Man…..continue to create a false reality/comradery like Rove and friends. A little advice for the little man from New York, stop presenting your pseudo-intelectual insecurities by correcting the spelling of others and offering up alternative words that you looked up in google. It really makes you a fucking bore. However, that hasn’t really stopped you because you just respond to your own posts (see Jakey tabs). I have been on this site longer than you; however, I just don’t wrap my self-worth in it as you do.
No, you only wrap up your free group therapy sessions here, nitwit.
Sorry I can’t help you with your Daddy problems, but recall I did suggest primal screaming.
FWIW — the one insult the cuts to the quick is this “google words” allegation. You’ve gone too far, sir, you’ve gone too far.
_____________
Seriously, you should be well aware already that I don’t mind battering around simple minded leftists, but your flailing here is annoying my friend M. Docteur de LeFly, so I suggest you take it to my blog if you wish to continue — anywhere.
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Well, Jakey can get a little yappy. But that is his right. I luckily agree with most of what he says, so it works out great for me. There is an entire structure working here. Everyone has there positions and give there worth to make PPT a better service. On the inside you learn what RC does, what the bloggers do, Puma….. all of them. I rarely see Jake inside. Perhaps I was thinking a part of Jakes job is to moderate out here? I don’t know, I am just guessing. RC, Chart Addict…… they all do different things. If some want to comment in the forum they will. Everyone is extremely busy trying to make the site a better place.
Jakey is not trolling. I do think he is supposed to be here. I don’t take him for the dick sucking type as well… 😉
The people that we have banned were the weirdo freaking stalkers and people talking about children and families or just plain creepy shit.
Fly – you should make me a moderator? The chick moderator………… laughing….
Granted, Jake is a douche bag. But, while I haven’t kept up on his recent posts ..if he were a “scared little person”, as you said in your post, he would have moved out of NY to some survivalist haven like KY by now.
Purdy,
You don’t buy into that New York tough kid crap do you. There are plenty of pussies in New York that spend their life thinking they are tough just because of geography. Little man is one of them. All he does is associate.
Hold on a second. Is this what this is all about?
New York prejudice?
Well, heck then, we’ve finally found something upon which to agree!
_____________
Word to the Purd — C’mon down to Lou’ville and see how “survivalist” it is. I think it may be about a millimeter to the right of Cambridge, if that. Your racist Southie neighborhood would be forced into re-education camps upon arrival, along with a regimen of “group hugs.”
Just for laffs, look up my Congresscritter “John Yarmouth” and his voting record. To say the guy is Nancy Pelosi’s lap dog would intimate that he’s more independent in his political direction than he truly is. V.I. Lenin would have thrown him out of the party for trying to out-wood his second in command, Josef.
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Great post, any idea when this is supposed to happen?
The market does a great job of telling you when to get out, until then sit tight and let your winners run.
Its meaningless to talk about it until it happens.
will that be good for sugar?
There are big moves coming, that’s fer sure. I happen to think the stock market has one more leg up driven by the rocket fuel booster jets of trillions in central bank dollars, and a retail investor who will jump in at exactly the wrong time. During that last hoorah, I suspect commodity prices will blossom, sending oil toward 2008 highs, and gold near to 1400 or so. I believe this will all happen by early summer, then, with the retail investor having piled on due to fear of missing the next great bull market, we will begin to show the true colors of the world’s faulty financial infrastructure, trun tail, and commodities and stocks will fall in the face of a fed and other central banks panicked into printing trillions more to stop the bleeding; only to discover that that doesn’t work when inflation of asset prices is the cause of your demise. Yes, you may be able to print your way out of credit, real estate, and internet stock bubbles, but not a bubble born of inflationary fires. We are doomed because we are weak. I predict a new low in the S&P 500 by October 2011.
I do think gold will rise again following its mid to late summer precipice of a correction, due to the massive printing of paper monies, and the simple fact that it is in a secular bull market, but not before a sell off scares all the bulls into hibernation.
That’s my take
Fubsy
Agreud, pretty nearly 100%.
Timing may be off a tetch, but I think you’ve got the principal correuct (sic).
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Fubsy — On what basis do you predict crude prices will reach their 2008 highs? With such significant current excess production capacity in relation to demand how do you envision crude prices reaching their 2008 highs by early summer? Even if crude trades purely as an asset class this won’t happen. Also, in terms of your prediction that the S&P will make a new low by October 2011 what is your basis for such a prediction? With the global economy clearly recovering and S&P profits on the mend what will drive the S&P to new lows? Stock prices follow profits — plain and simple. I don’t know where the S$P 500 will be in October, 2011, but I am sure as hell it won’t be below 666. Finally, I feel the need to address your comment, “we are doomed because we are weak.” What does that mean? Get a grip.
Amen to that. That about sums it up. This is true…. very, very true! I happen to think the stock market has one more leg up driven by the rocket fuel booster jets of trillions in central bank dollars, and a retail investor who will jump in at exactly the wrong time.
Oh, and regarding interest rates. Fly’s view flies in the face of very strong seasonal forces. Notice how each year, the low in TLT comes in mid June. Very pronounced. We are now entering the time in which interest rates typically rise (TLT falls) into the June time frame. This protends another leg up in the risk trade.
See chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&id=p78132182131&a=171225083&listNum=11
Missed it. Post video link if u can find one
Disagree. I may have missed the very last segment, but the only mention of government intervention in the market was in regard to the bailout, which is just horseshit.
Of course Goldman is the evil bad guy cartoon villain, and, while I’m not excusing their excesses (or Lehman’s or anyone’s) to not say ONE bloody word about the Freddie and Fannie government “free pass” that allowed all that moral hazard is criminal.
Of course, we are talking about Michael Lewis and CBS News, here.
________
I have come to enjoy the crap out of this site. It reminds me of when I was 22 and cocky far beyond my actual accomplishments (which at that time were limited to a decent ability to pick up girls while drinking). That sentence was not meant as an insult for the fly or anybody, truly, the site reminds me of a better bolder side of myself.
Bonds are hosed intermediate term and I bet more than I asset allocation fund with any kind of leeway in decision making (i.e., portfolio flexibility) swaps fixed income for T, VZ, LLY, MO, RAI and so forth. Buoyancy under boring low beta dividend aristocrats. Thats my bet.
In my view the biggest question on the market right now, and the most valuable to investors should we be able to divine its answer, is when does the current commodity deflation cycle end, and where? Its 10 years old now, which is fairly old for these kind of cycles, and its already historically severe (only the one from ~1907 to ~1920 was more severe in magnitude)… if it has another leg we have a negative situation from a national perspective and the markets face more chaos. If this commodity inflation cycle draws to an end (or has seen its end) that bodes well for many things (but still not bonds intermediate to long term). Medtronic 2020 at 4.25%? please. Anybody with a brain would trade T at 6+% with lower tax rates.
I liked you better when you were cocky.
Make up you fuckin’ mind. Commodity INFLATION or DEFLATION?
Oil, gold, some metals and some grains are up. Nat gas and meats
and produce are down.
The government needs to RAISE TAXES on the rich (my pet way
is a 110% tax on all income above $250K annually), slash the wasteful
Departmebnt of Attack spending by 50%, freeze Federal and State pensions,
and start investing the Social Security surplus in index stock funds.
You would see Dow 50,000 within ten years, and have the states
and Federal governments rolling in SURPLUSES, a la the Clinton Years.
“start investing the Social Security surplus in index stock funds.”
IMHO that is basically what they are doing through the back door right now with the bailouts. Or not?
historically commodity prices have (if you look in big broad strokes) moved in unison and, sort of, in shelves. Long periods when commodity prices rise relative to equity prices (1907-1920, great depression, 1972-1980, 2000-20??) and long periods when equity prices rise relative to commodities. Commodity inflation cycles have generally corresponded to negative things in the economy and equity markets, and commodities have generally inflated and then sort of plateaued. WRT which commodities are up:
gold is just the worlds most popular idea right now. I have friends wives who have had those inbred gold tupperware parties or who have converted their savings to gold, its on TV, its in malls. In fact anywhere cousins are kissing, gold is being bought or sold right there.
Oil is being floated at these prices by bandwagon jumping hedgies who just read a pamphlet on peak oil and…
farm prices have fluctuated madly for years. A dry season in Kansas can send the price of a grain up even if another grain sees excess supply.
I think, but wouldn’t bet strongly, that we saw the peak for this commodity cycle in ’08
Everyone stfu or i am banning everyone. If i read another essay in the comments section, you’re banned
Lol at alvari. The pussy doth protest too much.
WELL, it looks like i CLOSED MY EFFING SHORTS at the tip-top Friday. Fucking cock-suckers.
I mostly blame myself for not sticking to my guns and requiring a clear close above 1150. I blame myself for even getting short in the first place in a market like this one.
BY I ALSO BLAME JAKE GINT. All that got-damn butane talk definitely accelerated my demise.
HuggieBear is out of the market until further notice, save for a few automated intraday plays. I am still sitting on a meager 10% gain for the year and i refuse to go negative in the froth that is this current market.
HB, over and out.
Huggie – Take a deep breath. Playing prevent-defense isn’t the way to get to the Super Bowl. Someone has to buy at the top and sell at bottom. Geez – you’re up 10%. Quit complaining and figure out your next move.
You are a bear (or bears?) of much wisdom…my game plan is to wait for a bit of a sell off and get long some good names with a few hedges in place. Probably do that until either a) there is another runup and i take profits or b) there is clear evidence of tightening.
Sheeit, everyone’s blaming me for their problem’s this morning.
As with the lefty with Daddy problems above, I was only trying to help…. 😉
________
The 60 Minutes piece last night with writer Michael Lewis who wrote Liars Poker,was incredible.
Author Tells “60 Minutes” What Led to Wall Street Collapse and Who Predicted It
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/03/12/60minutes/main6292458.shtml?tag=contentMain;cbsCarousel
Agreed that was a great piece. He played Goldman out good.
Dr Fly, without blowing too much sunshine up your whatsit, I admire your ability to change tact and call it right. Not long ago you were heavy into, or talking about loading up on digging stuff from dirt based names. What changed your opinion, at least in the short term?
I’m more Denninger, always saying things are screwed, since early 2007 (UK was a bit behind US). And have been amazed by the level of risk people are happy to get into in 2009. But I’m realising this is probably because they are not playing with their own money and have been living off of Bolivian sugar just to get through 2008 (would help explain collapse in real sugar price (that an India’s 20% excess production)).
March 9th I said my system said sell DOW 10630, FTSE 5610 and VOD.L 148.8 I took the safer option of VOD.L and am down 2pts, the DOW play had 120pts profit and the FTSE only 20pts. Out of the 3 options, I chose the wrong one……next time, I’ll flip a coin and hopefully actually bank some.
What’s so funny is that despite the Fly constantly laughing at all the technical analyst and chart-reading nitwits — that’s pretty much all he does. Markets break out — Fly goes long. markets get extended, he sells. There’s no coherent strategy — just a guy with decent instincts. makes it fun to read but impossible to follow.
Market is not going to crash or even go down more than 5% from here. It’s fixed. So betting on long term treasurys is just full-retard. Give the market a few weeks to settle and it’s onward and upward. The idea of gold crashing for a lengthy period of time is just absurd.
Central banks have never printed money so fast in the history of the world. Why anyone would bet against this is beyond me.
Why? Well eventually the time will come when we have to pay the piper. The only questions are when and how bad it will be. Like the artificial dotcom economy, CDS’s and housing before it, the day of reckoning will come for artificial wealth IE: printing press economy. Twon’t be pretty.
This will take place no sooner than after the midterm elections. Do you know what that money that went out the back door of the Fed is doing right now?
Exactly.
today was basically flat but under the covers there was a bit of “sell the risk” mojo…
god bless the market for letting so many stocks close to or hit their 52 week highs 1 year and 1 day or more after I bought them…