Fuck you Mother Market. I will not be hoodwinked into believing that this is the bottom, not today. As much as I believe a beleaguered Greece is an absurd reason to sell stocks, people want a reason to sell—just because.
Nevertheless, I remain 90% long, into the teeth of this decline. I’ve given back all of my early 2010 gains and will allow for another 5% of downside, before doing some wholesale selling and/or initiating some short positions. If I were to short stocks, I’d target weak CRE names.
Should the market bounce here, I will look to sell some of my weaker names, in order to raise cash and/or add to higher quality names that now trade at a discount.
Bottom line: You should not be delving into low quality, small cap names down here. Like I mentioned several weeks ago on The PPT, now is the time to GET BIG and bulk up on big cap/ high quality equities, not Chinese lotto/fucking retarded gambling names. If the market dives, you will not get “napalmed” in big cap, only slightly destroyed. However, if this pullback is for real and you have a portfolio filled with small cap bullshit, you will get wiped the fuck out. No joke. Do yourself a favor, pal, GET BIG or get out.
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Freddy
It was not just a market event. It was a major economic collapse that could have led to a depression. There is nothing wrong with exercising a little caution.
Indeud.
I thought you said the live stream of that annoying guy would be off on Monday. PLease kill the automatic stream.
I agree this is not the bottom
Moe
I took it off Flyblog. It will remain on front page, as he is an iBC blogger. Be nice.
NUE top pick on a bounce.
For us “rational investors” that look further out than two weeks, this is a no-downside market. You mean we aren’t going to crash the fuck out? Everything is going to be fine? Yet we’re at sustained market levels not seen since 2005? Back the truck up. You short termers can “fuck the doorknob” all you want, trying to milk 12 cents here, 8 cents there (while paying a 40% tax rate on those “wins”). I’ll sit back, like the gentleman that I am, 130% invested, waiting for May 2013.
Good day.
Fishsticks
As much as I would like to agree with you, 2008 is still fresh in my mind. I think it’s a bad idea to assume the market will do well over the long term and use that to justify complacency.
2008 is a prime example of what market psychologists like to call a “recallability trap”…letting past disasters and dramatic events weigh too heavily in the forecast, ignoring newer information.
2008 was pretty significant buddy.
So was Pearl Harbor. I can only assume you don’t go to Hawaii for fear of being torpedo’d?
LOL. Well played, Freddy.
I probably wouldn’t have vacationed there in 1943.
Very well played, mhass33
Looking out further than two weeks doesn’t necessarily make you rational.
There is no such thing as a no-downside market.
CRE lags residential in downturns, and residential ain’t done (dropping) yet
>>For us “rational investors” that look further out than two weeks, this is a no-downside market.<<
I consider myself to be a ‘rational investor”, too, and I see massive consumer and government debtloads out there that will be an anchor around this economy for at least the next three to five years. Stock prices are driven by earnings, and with no cost-cutting left and no money out there among consumers to spend to grow revenue, what will drive the earnings growth?
Here’s my short idea…
China broke major support of 200EMA when it went down beloe 3,000; Plus with all that talk of stimulus withdrawal… blah blah blah…you all know the story.
I would short individual ADR’s not that piece of crap ETF FXP.
What’s up?
That’s it boys, I am offloading my longs here…this is the market highs for the day. The ever so “important” 1085 became resistance.
Some consolidation before next market leg down to 1020ish…
I like Paulson, he looks like a very chill guy…Geithner on the other hands looks like a prick, somebody I WOULD NOT want to have a dozen beers with.
Doesn’t coffee talk about the sure 2008 collapse of the US Economy, and how I saved it, seem a little odd at this point? All we’ve done is create a new Frankenstein (no pun intended).
Getting short on this strength
don’t tell me we might be back into the 4 horsemen of certain death?
MAC short?
Big cap… Point taken.
AMZN still way too expensive.. AAPL still toooo cheap… long apple .. short amzn is still a great play right now
The 1071 support seems to be holding, but I am still seeing these peaks on the $SPX being sold. We need to move above the high of Friday for a really bullish picture to emerge. The $VIX needs to break down further.
http://bit.ly/9EDR6T
Don’t you guys find it worrisome that Paulson admitting he had no clue what he was doing? In other words, what makes this different from Geithner and Bernanke?
They had no clue & still have no clue. It was obvious then & obveous now.
And this is why we are now so confident about what’s ahead?
DOUBLE DOWN ON PEIX @ 1.85 1.88
Today is a good day to have a cup at a coffee shop and disregard the markets nonesense entirely.
yo
on a day like today, your shorts prove correct, while you stop out for a loss.
on a day like this, your longs lose money, even though you were right.
jus felt like sayin that
Loosing money when you are “right” is kinda like
being dead right – you did things properly, unfortunately, you got killed because you did
talkin bout chop and daytradin, homeboy.
Looking more like a bottom to me if we end this way….
Again though: Full of old slogans that don’t stand any test of time.
Big does not = safe. I thought 2008 made that more than clear.
Over any extended period of time, buying UNKNOWN value small caps and rebalancing once a year has outperformed nearly any other type of passive investing strategy. The key would be to buy value, and not story names like FTK or MVIS that the investment banks chat up in boiler rooms.
Do all the traders out there really want to spend their whole life in front of a screen all day for 50 years? I guess they do. It’s funny how often I notice on Monday the real die-hards were posting all through the weekend too. People’s entire lives devoted to making a mountain of money and most of it they probably won’t even spend either.
Hey Fly,
I really feel CMI is going to be one of the best stocks of the year.. I am still holding onto much SD. I really feel the market will be back to new highs within the next 10 trading days.. However, I think after this point we are looking a sideways market for the next 2 quarters.. Keep up the great work!!!
One daytrade- a Spitzer (and Edwards) in and out of SMH for a gain of .75%.
Lots of noise thus far.
Did listen to Scott Bleirer this AM on his broadcast and enjoyed it although I do hope he is taking high Blood Pressure meds for the sake of his health.
I believe this is what you were trying to say:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKgPY1adc0A
Makes me cringe every time. To think that we almost followed that act up with the stupid bitch. This country never ceases to amaze me.
Yeah by guys like Jake that can rationalize VP candidates like her while insisting they are smarter than the rest of us or call us liberals for being right (?) ….
Imagine a conservative trying to muddy the waters defending free speech for the first time ever cause it helps his party raise more campaign $ …. so hypocritical
http://ibankcoin.com/jakegint/2010/01/27/16-tonnes-sic/#comment-11626
“Only the most wooden approach to the First Amendment could justify the unprecedented line it seeks to draw.”
No disrespect to Woodshedder but I think we should all start referring to Jake as “Woody” ….
E8 — this is largely chickenshit of you. Instead of taking shots at me on Fly’s blog, why not bring it over to mine, where I can eviscerate your paltry arguments with a free hand?
Word to the ignorant of history — restricting large money donations hurts Dems more than it hurts Republicans. Republicans actually have the SUPPORT of most of the middle class who can give a moderate amount of money to a campaign. Dems need to hook in big liberals (ie, Soros) or fascist corps that know they can buy a corrupt Congresscritter.
Again, if you do not know your history, you will be the easy fodder for the socialists seeking to tell you stories to keep you happy.
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Sounds like the start of a great thread. I can’t elaborate right now, but I’ll comment over on your blop later tonight.
Last time I was ovah theah you cut off the “Reply” switch which indicated you had no intent to respond yourself or let others comment either ….
Secondly, there is no history of “unlimited corporate donations” from which to extrapolate your insertion … it’s impossible to speculate how much $ could go into GOP coffers from pro-republican businesses, much like your own donation (personal or corporate) to Scott Brown.
I did no such thing. There’s a limit to the nesting of this software, that’s all. You can easily continue the conversation below.
Shame on you for saying I would ever censor a debate. I never have and never will.
The answer to bad, ignorant or misleading speech is MORE speech, not less. 😉
Second, there is history — research the McGovern race. He was largely backed by a few private ultraliberal donors. When the limits went into place, the leftward leaning of the Democrat party was somewhat halted due to the fact that they could not find enough nuts to contribute to the limit.
Of course, these days, Soros and others have found their way into getting around those limits via front organizations and 527 funds.
That is why it’s an absolute JOKE to think that allowing more “open” speech would somehow corrupt the process. If anything it allows more sunlight. Again, for those who will do their research, the answers are there.
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Apparently you have a better grasp of “freedom of speech” as it applies to institutions than Justice Stevens … a Ford appointee no less.
Who gives a fuck about McGovern! The limitations on private giving applied to all … we’re talking about “corporate giving” and unlimited coffers that don’t represent peoples’ ideology but the affect the giving will have on the givers profits with the insuing corrupt spending via more earmarks and backroom deals. This applies to both Dems and the GOP as the Unions are inclusive in this ruling …. it’s not a them or us issue … it’s the effect it will have on the whole election system that sucks.
I don’t have a better grasp of anything. The Constitution is quite clear — “The Congress shall make NO LAW” — so sorry.
Stevens is an old time liberal willing to bend the rules of the Constitution to suit his new found liberal beliefs. There’s no shock to that, liberal justices have been doing it for years.
But this is the end of this on this blog. I’ve commented on mine, and you can see how dumb your above argument is from the quote I’ve provided. Cheers.
hahaha, “new found liberal beliefs” …
See if you don’t move more to the center as you get older Jake, worrying about the state of the nation in which your issue will have to endure. Someday you too will realize how your own party “plucked” you and yours for years via talk of trickle down and tax cuts when in fact they were only concerned about self-preservation. Even now republicans think tax cuts can reverse The Great Recession … sure, put the government deeper in the red in the hope that the recipients will just hire people as a result. It’s a given that when private enterprise won’t or can’t spend $ to stimulate the economy the government is the spender of last resort. Gov’t may not be the most efficient purveyor of capital to rely on but it does have a huge sac unlike our banker friends unwilling to finance small business on main street but happy to use taxpayer $ to fund their bonuses and the misses’ new E-Class.
Our corporations pulling the Chinese out of their catacombs into the 21st century funding new factories, the transfer of technology and currency to finance the buildup of a modern defense infrastructure all in the name of cheap labor and higher profits … American consumer be damned but able to continue consumption though at Walmart’s rather than Macy’s to appease the decline in their standard of living … can’t wait for the huddled masses to demand retribution for what may be ultimately deemed as treason.
You know I’m not chickenshit when it comes to debate … I never hide behind some burlap cloak when debating you though vastly disadvantaged due to your English Major verses mine in Numberology [sic].
USU up over 13% since SOU – that 11% short getting spanked.
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FCX up over 6% today – I still say “Fuck You FCX” …..at least until it getsback to 80.
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RE and Building looking good. Even with terrible construction news, LEN and KBH down less than 1%. URE up over 3%.
Shoulda bot you some AGQ or ANV. Why dilute all that nice gold with copper?
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