Let’s discuss the market.
I can guarantee you, we will see actual job growth inside of 6 months. Write that down, jelly belly. You do not get the type of productivity gains we’ve bee seeing, without job growth shortly thereafter. Playing the market is like piecing together a puzzle. First, the crisis was abated, through Government welfare. Then, the liquidity issue was resolved, with LIBOR and Fed Funds rates drilled to the floor boards. Then, corporate America rebounded, thanks to keen management. Next, the consumer started spending more, on the backs of hope for a positive turn in the economy.
The next big issue is bailing out states and municipalities. Unfortunately, many state and cities are on the verge of bankruptcy, including California and New York. The Federal government cannot afford to let this happen. I suspect, within 6 months, there will be some sort of bailout for troubled states, in an effort to relieve the incredible debt burden. Whatever the solution will be, one thing is guaranteed: The United States will continue to borrow money from others, in order to pay its own bills. As a result, the dollar will be pressured.
As you know, with a weak dollar, commodities will benefit. I cannot stress this enough: do yourself a favor and hedge your declining dollar with something “real.” Go to Jakegint’s blog and learn up on gold/silver. Or, you can stick around here and I will scream POSCO (ADR) [[PKX]] , Mechel OAO (ADR) [[MTL]] and Sociedad Quimica y Minera (ADR) [[SQM]] in your fat face, until you get the point.
As an aside, I am not confident that Flotek Industries, Inc. [[FTK]] will meet estimates. They are very stupid and have no idea how to manage a company. I should have sold months ago. Nonetheless, I will see the company through another arduous conference call. But my patience is running thin.
In short, here are 10 basic material ideas, stolen from The Commodity Index, on The PPT.
Bucyrus International, Inc. [[BUCY]] , Peabody Energy Corporation [[BTU]] , Northgate Minerals Corporation (USA) [[NXG]] , POSCO (ADR) [[PKX]] , [[VALE]] , Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] , Goldcorp Inc. (USA) [[GG]] , The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] , Eagle Materials, Inc. [[EXP]] , Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. [[NGS]] .
Now where’s my 5 billion dollars?
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You will never sell FTK, Fly. I know, I have a time macheen too.
If you sell FTK, what will happen to “The Fly Memorial Lunch Room and Exercise Center” at FTK corporate HQ?
he/we can’t just sell. Someone has to make a take over bid. 🙂
If the Fly hasn’t sold that huge POS through all this, why bother to sell it now.
It’s all about ego now, the Fly vs egregiously stupid FTK management.
Be very careful with Australian comod plays as the government here is talking about imposing super profits tax on mining. There also the issue of an appreciating Australian dollar that takes the zap away from the play.
Quick! Someone UPS in those idiots an economics professor!
Nothing like taking a shillelagh to the knees of your highest competitive advantage.
It’s like the Democrat asshats here with their Cap & Tax inanity. Got cheap coal? Let’s take that advantage away, post-haste, and make Fat Al rich(er)!
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Of course you would UPS it. I only use FedEx. Sorry.
FedEx only goes to Oz via “Slow Boat to China,” and all their pilots are frisked with vigour (sic) by suspicious red-headed Customs bureaucrats upon entry, further slowing their proceedings.
This economist must be shipped without Memphian delay!
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Think like a slave trader, use DRYS.
We did that here in Canada a few years ago with the oil royalty increases
I remember that… I used to own a metric tonne (sic) of Canuckistanian royalty plays… now just a little bit of PGH remains.
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“The United States will continue to borrow money from others…” until others are no longer prepared to lend.
Brave
They have no choice.
Agreed there is a captive market, and one Q does not a trend make, but Q2 Flow of Funds Report shows that the Fed bought like half of all newly issued treasuries in the second quarter. I don’t think external demand will be that robust going forward (eg., with India buying 200 tons of gold this week, alt currency arrangements in some commodity markets, etc – a trend away from US paper?), so I’m agnostic for now.
Longer term, though…
I’m happy to ride the melt up with long term holds (fins and commodity plays, many now free thanks to this rally) but I’ve started shorting stuff (see my few PPT posts) again and using some of the profits to buy lotteries: way out of the money armageddon puts and penny biotechs.
Ah fuck it – I just realized I am becoming a degenerate OTB guy.
Carry on!
Brave
w ootm armageddon puts are insurance;
on the other hand
penny biotechs are indeed degenerate OTB 🙂
what are you shorting?
“states and cities are on the verge of bankruptcy… The Federal government cannot afford to let that happen”
>>>and the Federal government cannot afford to stop it (but they can continue to maintain the grand illusion, for awhile)
Go long smoke machine manufacturers & mirror makers
currency crisis, civil unrest down the road
Just cashed out my longs…
Any of you more historically minded think it oddly ironic that we’ve been stuck (on the SPX) at “The Battle of Hastings” for two days now?
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goolasch[sic] my man…..goolasch[sic] I say!
DMG and I know all about it.
YOU’RE LOOKING LEFT!
Greetings Fly,
On a similar growth note, with inventories starting to get replenished and ISM/PMI starting to look higher, I believe its only a matter of time before NatGas demand picks up again. While they can use as much as coal as they want, a few plants and industries still use natty … I believe to start seeing huge draws in natty exceeding the seasonal variance.
You with me on this?
-Panda bear
i like natty here
I agree but a small position is all I’m interested in as the chart shows no bottom as of yet
I do have a decent position in Coal though
hey fly have you ever looked at TS? They are south american and commodity related …
Long term US economy sucks dick. Short term guys like fly will make mucho dinero because of their market insights and ability to play Obama’s bullshit governance. 18 months to two years and the shit hits the fan. Unfortunatley canuckistan will be sprayed by american shit storm unlike Aussies who can suck asia’s dick through troubled times.
Hey Jake (Mr. PM) – do you reckon there will be a fortune to be make, within the next few years, shorting the downside of what could be a gold bubble?
No, unless you are a nimble or lucky OTB guy.
your odds are best if you are lucky. by best I mean best of slim and none
Mr. POTUS — there will be a time to short, but it won’t be for a while.
Not until they wreck the currency, and we’re in the thousands of $ an ounce.
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S&P is getting rejected at 1070.
http://i613.photobucket.com/albums/tt220/RedSquirrel/secks.png
figment of your imagination
Denial is step one.
I am entirely convinced that we are in the topping process, might have even seen the top. Not s convinced as some that its a straight down path from here though. I think and hope for Fly’s sake that we see 10500 on the dow but it will still be within the topping process. Just look at today’s action…dow should have been down 2 hundo easy but for some mysterious reasons its not.
Everyone knows by now that the only thing to watch is the US$. Why is it still going down relative to other SICKER currencies is beyond me. Make no mistake about it, when th $ starts a menaingfull rally, the markets and commodities will move with it in the opposite direction. Probably not till after christmas.
I agree with Le Fly that we will see positive numbers in employment within 6 months but they will be so small that the market still will tank. I believe 2010 will be a nasty year for the markets.
holding TZA here but won’t be too heartbroken to part with it at the first sign of a decent market rally.
cheerio
I thought you went down to Mexico?
guarantee jobs?
You and obama both.
RGLD BTFO to all time highs
Hat tip to Jake
Grazie.
It’s an IRA stock, fwiw.
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Fly, what happened to Coach Coffee’s blog? Did you remove him already??
Coach went back to coaching high school basketball games.
Well that’s a shame…I thought he seemed to be doing quite well.
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currencies
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=UUP#chart2:symbol=uup;range=1y;compare=fxa+fxf+fxy+tbt;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Compliments to the IT staff for the memory when one forgets the spam protection #!
Fly,
Do you still tweak the PPT?
Currencies play a role in PPT scores.
Let’s just call a wrap here and go into the weekend without any serious damage.