Some Offshore Rig
Yesterday, “Le Fly” posted some refiners he liked:
“In closing, I like the refiners here, specifically Tesoro Corporation (TSO: 13.64 0.00%) , Holly Corporation (HOC: 24.03 +0.21%) and Western Refining, Inc. (WNR: 6.27 -1.42%) . Additionally, I like Sunstone Hotel Investors, Inc (SHO: 6.73 -0.74%) , Flotek Industries, Inc. (FTK: 1.77 +2.31%) , Complete Production Services, Inc. (CPX: 9.70 -1.62%) , Hercules Offshore, Inc. (HERO: 4.83 -2.62%) and TeleCommunication Systems, Inc. (TSYS: 7.92 +1.41%) . Now get the fuck out of here and go eat a burger.”
They were up yesterday but at the time of this post they are down or at least most of them… If you believe in the thesis, you may want to look at potentially considering them on this “dip”.
As any “dip” you never know if you’re getting the bottom of it or just the start so …
I’m looking at WNR but probably won’t bite.
Western Refining Inc (WNR)
Being the percentage play kinda guy that I am, I’d rather see this close above atleast $6.53. Therefor @ $6.22 it’s not that appealing. Should I go for the “let’s get in early” approach I’d wait and let it drop much further as there appears to be no support down there. I have no clue what the future holds but I do have control over my moves. I’ll continue to wait, for now.
If you are interested in WNR here is some more reading “No Finer Entry Point on this Refiner”
A few excerpts worth noting:
“Western Refining used to be a high-flyer. The stock ran all the way to $64.59 in 2007 before tanking under the weight of the credit crisis that summer; WNR now trades at just $6.39 or a whopping 90% below its best price since going public in 2006. That’s a crash. [The stock closed $6.11 Friday before spiking 6% to $6.48 by midday Monday—Editor.]”
and
“The company is saddled with high debt, wobbling cash-flow and bad earnings. The stock has a market-cap of just $438 million. That means this little stock can be extremely volatile—rising or falling in excess of 5% or more in a single trading session.”
Any thoughts?
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
I prefer being early rather than a bit late, as long as it’s not too early. I’ve got a full position in WNR from $6.24. Risk:reward seemed stupid so I bit. I’m also looking at HERO and TSO, but I need to make room for them.
Trying to dance this rotation dance and learn to utilize the PPT at the same time is probably something I should not attempt. I’m pretty good at risk management and sizing my positions, but I still could break something. I’m geting impatient with some of my dogs and the last time I got fed up and switched to a “better horse” (pardon the mixed metaphor) the old dogs screamed higher and the new dog took a nap.
ha I know ALL TOO WELL about cashing out of dogs for new horses that break their legs. For the most part now I just hold a dog until it comes back or like last week I had some bigger gains and cut off some losses as a “cost of doing business” in the process. My new “thang” is just never getting involved in a d0g.
Something I’ve found is that most of my “dogs” are PPT plays that I got in and kinda just let marinate. Not talking about THIS trade (Hurricane Thesis) but mainly those technical breakouts etc… Gotta be quick to buy quick to sell as once the technical momo leaves all that is left all too often is some lame company with crap fundamentals and prospects, hence they were just a trade on technical at the time.
For some reason I’m just not enthused to buy anything. WNR @ $6.22 looked okay.
PPT – Start using the screener man, it’s under “TOOLS” then “SCREENER” and make some custom screens. I have a lot of screens but have not made one in ages. If you have any questions let me know I’ve lived on that thing for the last few months.
Will do.