I had a feeling Mother Market would take a few wild swings at me. However, I didn’t think she would break my jaw so quickly. Across the board, the market is breaking down, led by asshole commodity names. For those of you who are addled by poor reading comprehension skills: I sold out of [[ERX]] weeks ago, in the high 30’s.
But, that doesn’t matter.
I have lots of stuff boxing me into a corner, sort of like a rabid pitbull snapping away at me, or better yet, a shark on a leash. My bullish dreams of free goats and lucky leprechauns, running through green meadows, without a worry in the world, have been interrupted by way of exploding coal silos.
I have very little choice now, but to hedge for Dear God and pray for an outcome that does not include the destruction of “The Fly” and melt down of Senor Tropicana, who is sipping on pina coladas at some non-descript beach right now.
With my money, I will sell another 10% of my longs, and get short to the tune of approximately 10%, leaving an additional 13% in cash. I will use the cash to average into my new shorts, if need be. Instead of cherry picking individual short ideas, I will use bastard inverse ETF’s, initially, then mosey on over to specific ideas.
Developing…
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its ok fly you’ll make it back in no time
FIG…I call bullshit. VIX of 32 is a buy point. New VIX range 22-32.
CIG
howabout that FTK!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bJd4-lTZf1k
we know fly has majority of FTK and we are going to sell it, sell it, sell it…
still short
150k QQQQ 34.98
100k DIA 85.42
25k IYT 60.89
long 100k FAZ 4.28
Fuck it , just bought back Euro and Euro yen. The FX market seems to have anticipated this move down in stocks and there isn’t any more to be made there.
This stock move among other things seems to have been prompted by the Sorld Bank’s assessment of global GDP growth and spooked everyone. Here’ my question since when has anyone ever listened to what those retards at the World bank have to say about anything? They’re always wrong and have the forecasting prowess of Devildog when he’s sober.
I doubled up… bought some Euro and Aussie/yen down here looking for a bounce or I get cut out with a close stop.
So bullshit crapolla penny stocks don’t go up forever.
Who could have guessed?
not selling ftk, entr, glw or ovti
not shorting here, either. Looking for better entry point.
chivas: things looking worse?
Gappy,
yes they are.
J – The World Banks assessment of growth is far more accurate than say the Fed. Unlike the Fed, the World Bank has nothing to lose by being providing honest analysis.
Speaking of green shoots, all this hoopla has been a result of companies restocking inventory. Inventory levels fell off a cliff even faster than consumer spending. The consumer magically reappeared in the first quarter because everything was on sale 70-90% off. If you stepped into any retail store in Q1, you would have noticed the massive discounts. IF you are a strapped consumer planning to cut back, prices off 70-90% are going to waylay your plans.
Once this inventory restocking is complete, it will become pretty apparent that consumer spending is not going to return and the economy will be ready to drop another level of the cliff. Retailers are not going to be able to discount stuff 70-90% off as before unless they are planning to operate at a loss. The stock market is already anticipating the above. Get ready for a move to new lows.
Interesting. Already mostly cash, but kinda speculating long, as silly as that might appear to seem. Tech specifically looks attractive on this dip.
Yes, yes, I know, the end of the world is imminent, China is full of shit and oil is going to trade back on fundamentals. (Until hurricane season nears)
But on such weak volume I just don’t think you can trust it. Regress to VWAP, over 200dma, and up we go again. Or perhaps just sideways. And then more “recovery,” no?
Fly,
“not selling ftk, entr, glw or ovti”
are you selling GME here?
Has anyone seen Horatio Clawhammer?
i was not particularly following last several days but what happened to DD tab? I thought he comes on Sun to Mon? Did fly cut him loose? His posts were the most intertaining.
Fly, time to rid of TRID,yet?
Pice of shit has been taking it from mother market. And FNSR?
long FAS, tight stop, ha!
You’re wrong, cap. The World bank has a lot to lose. Like it’s sibling, the IMF, their appetite for additional cash is unquenchable.
The perverse thing about these two beasts from hell is that they only do well when things are up the dunny door (dunny is slang for the john down here).
The IMF is still looking for its $200 billion that was semi pledged to them which they wouldn’t have a hope in hell in getting if the global economy turns around. The world bank is very active in lending money that ends up going down the gurgler when things a shitty.
Those two fuckers are the last people I would believe about world growth.
The Fed doesn’t make global growth predictions.
The best forecasting method for global growth? Get the forecast of 10 large global banks forecast and average it. That’s my method. They are currently showing GDP growth of 3% + in 2010
Wow, I would hate to be Ben Bernanke right about now. The market is sitting on it’s 200 day moving average, and the dollar is looking kinda week regardless of a recent run-up. What is a Fed chair to do….
best trade – short both fas and faz. They are going to 0 competing who gets there sooner. My bet is on faz.
i was not particularly following last several days but what happened to DD tab? I thought he comes on Sun to Mon? Did fly cut him loose? His posts were the most intertaining.
The big fucking cry baby teengal has thrown a tantrum and refuses to run the blog piece, banker. The big (over sized) Mary says people laugh at his (ridiculous) predictions and he isn’t doing it anymore.
The big girl picked up his skirt and went home sobbing.
Trannies are getting their cocks cut off with a rusty pocketknife while oil is in freefall.
How’s that for a tell?
how many armored vehicles and abrams tanks did General Dynamics sell S. Korea lately?
WITH THE DOW DOWN 174, I PUT THE BULL PAINTING BACK ON THE WALL.
Waiting for results….
^^^^^^^^^
Just dont walk under the painting or we’ll have a dead bull and a dead fly
BOUGHT some FTK here..chart looks like shit…sorry got to use a stop on this rock
CAP
ROFLMAOMGSADTGETHERRDRHERGE
So funny.
Dipshit, go back to your day job. Men are at work here.
If it falls….The Fly will just put it back up.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKUG4ZShmLE
Nation
That was funny as shit. My type of pointless comedy.
We’ve been selling minis and hedging with short usd.cad. When the correlation eventually flips and dollar trades with market, gold will be less panty waste and more dominant imo, so we’ll go with the direction it chooses.
Fly, this is a line from your 2009 predictions:
______________
Commercial real estate will feel the full brunt of the credit crisis, with vacancies sky rocketing to record levels.
______________
In my town, there are lots of vacant commercial spaces, but they have been vacant all year. No new businesses that I see going into any of these spaces. Although lots of businesses are hanging in there, from here to december will be the tell tell sign of the direction, BUT as far as shorting these CRE stocks now is the time, not after they have collapsed.
so, question, are you looking into getting back into shorting names like MAC SLG ACC WRI etc?
just curious.
897 is significant. This is starting to get ugly now.
kass: http://bit.ly/DiEbS
ugly in one day….
TheArtist: not just one day its been selling since 950 but I am surprised we brok 897. Target should be 875 now.
Funny. The market has a 40% rally and its cooling off a bit during the summer (which is a given) and people are freaking the fuck out.
Fly,
Your own charts showed a correction at 950 to 900 followed by further correction at 923, possibly to 887 support.
Did you not believe your own TA?
You knob.
TA is for heroin and crack addicts. Sorry, not for me.
Watch CNBC try to talk this market up.
An update to Master Fly’s anonymous chart: http://img23.imageshack.us/img23/9058/flyschart.png
OO, you see my chart?
http://www.ibankcoin.com/dannyblog/?p=3422
Gapping,
I don’t watch CNBC ever anymore….Bloomberg for me, Everyone on CNBC just irritated the ever living shit out of me, Bloomberg is 1000% calmer and to me more professional, no gossip bullshit like CNBC has….
We’re only one third of the way through this financial mess. The next phase will be worse than the Great Depression. Civil unrest is expected, some have predicted a breakup of the US due to states wanting to break free from Fed debt, and the US dollar may not survive (to be replaced by a new currency). Not my opinion, but that of the ones who know. Trade accordingly.
Artist: Agree 100%, I can’t watch during the faggotry that is PowerLunch. I just fucking can’t stand it.
Are we all having fun today? Just thought I’d check in and follow the musings of the best market blog around.
Planning to eat a large corned-beef samwich (Carnegie Deli-style) and take a nap.
Danny, that is a very interesting and informative chart. Thanks.
You picked a good time to cash in and go adventuring, Alpha.
Seriously…ADawgg cashes out and the market dips. Odd, no?
_________
btw, re: iPhone 3GS (earlier post)…sells 1mil in first 3 days, just like the 3G, yet in only 8 countries vs. 21 countries. One would imagine the orders will continue rolling in as more and more 3G customers will be eligible for the upgrade (July and into the fall…).
Agree with TheArtist about CNBC and Bloomberg. BTV is financial news for adults. CNBC is completely unwatchable. BTV is also available free over the web.
Anybody buying this dip, pullback, correction? Flat into the last 15 minutes and then 50+ points down in the DJIA. Tomorrow could be comeback Tuesday or…..a little more of the same.
I doubled down on GLW, sold out TRID and hold GME.
I bought various names pretty heavy today for a trade/bounce.
But I suck, so trade accordingly