Time to get your Starbucks card repolished and your Best Buy visitations back up to 2006 levels. To put it succinctly: fuck what you heard, THE BULL IS BACK.
Developing…
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Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,453 Blog Posts
Ummm, no. We’re going lower on Monday.
you gotta be kidding. Yeah you might have room to run to 1000, but if you think this suckers rally runs past summer you’re gunna get your head handed to you. Remember the only reason companies were “beating” was because estimates had cratered to armageddon levels. Let’s see if Q2 can “beat” without the specter of armageddon
I joke, I joke. Don’t you imbeciles have humor genes?
But we are going higher Monday. So sorry.
It’s only a bull market from 3-4pm weekdays.
So sorry for you Fly, although you did sell huge chunk of your long exposure already. We go lower on Monday, ESPECIALLY tech – QQQQ.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=QQQQ&t=3m&l=on&z=l&q=c&c=
QQQQ has free-falling written all over it.
Fist,
see chart how good it is…there is huge support….
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=qqqq&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p74095171699
If you call me fist again I’ll fist you a new one.
I’ll give you the 200 day support, not your fake 13 day one. However if we break that, we go to 31.60 range easy.
Plus my proprietary candlestick analysis says sellers still puking the QQQQs, until it says otherwise, it’s going lower. Moreover if you read my Texas Hedge post, you would of known the unwind of the long tech and short financials trade is in our midst.
No no he is right, just today I saw a line out the door at starbucks. I went to bestbuy too and shit was selling out left and right. My neighbor also said he was getting a new brokerage account and wanted to know how he could take advantage of the market, of course I asked what “The Market” is as I don’t understand that stuff. We rocket higher until January, then we will pause before moving higher again. Bull is back!
By the way you fucking know the bull is back when even homeless people are paying rent!
http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/City-Starts-Charging-Rent-at-Homeless-Shelters.html
Yea… right. I can taste Monday’s victory already. Bayonet’s UP!
OEW Weekend Update:
LONG TERM: bear market
With the biggest rally since the bear market began in October 2007 many are turning bullish. We warned of this in early March when this uptrend was just beginning. Since we anticipated that Primary wave B was finally underway, and either a 50% rally or 50% bear market retracement was about to unfold. We expected bullishness to come back into vogue and the financials would lead.
Our current bear market is at minimum Cyclical in nature, and likely Supercyclical. In the past century three cyclical type bear markets occurred: 1929, 1937 and 1973. Each on of them unfolded in an ABC pattern consisting of three Primary waves. In each instance, after the first decline Primary wave A ended a Primary wave B rallied/retraced 50%, before a Primary wave C decline ended the bear market. From the Oct 07 high into the Mar 09 low we counted a completed 5-3-5 zigzag structure. We labeled this Primary wave A, and then based upon these historical relationships projected the current uptrend. “History does indeed repeat itself, but never exactly in the same way.”
OEW Continued:
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
The uptrend just completed its ninth week with the SPX +39% and the DOW +35%. Since all of our historical references are based on the DOW all appears in order. During this SPX 263 point uptrend there have only been two significant pullbacks. One in late March of 53 points, and the other in mid-April of 49 points. Thus far, we have labeled the SPX 833 high as Intermediate wave A, and the SPX 780 low (53 point pullback) as Intermediate wave B. From there the SPX rallied to 876, which we labeled Minor A, pulled back to 827 (49 points) which we have labeled Minor wave B. Since then the market has rallied to 930 and this should be Minor wave C of Intermediate wave C. When this rally ends we expecting to label it Major wave A. The SPX hourly chart is posted below. Earlier in the week we posted two fibonacci relationships to these waves: Minor C equals Minor A @ SPX 923, and Int. C equals Int. A @ SPX 946. Since there is an OEW pivot at 935 this area should offer some short term resistance. On thursday the market rallied to SPX 930, then dropped 29 points for its biggest pullback since the 49 point drop in mid-April. Then on friday the market gapped up, hit 930 again, and closed at 929. The 935 pivot, as all pivots, provides an actual price range of 14 points. Therefore the resistance range is between SPX 928 – 942, which is in line with the fibonacci relationships. This is the same pivot that ended the January uptrend. Should the market break through this range the next pivot is at 961. Should the market drop below SPX 900 Major wave A would have most likely ended.
the market move must be measured by the aggressivness of buyers vs fears of sellers , still we have to see the second , we’re in bull mode at moment and no one can say the contrary . Reinstallation of the uptick rule says it too .
This is an AMEN , no to be confused with an amenity ,
read less and do more homework ( graph lectures and some data lectures )
Hey Fly,
How many hours you work on weekends? Just wondering…
This tech/semi move is obviously a inventory re-build rally given the quarters of Intel, Cisco, and Nvidia. There is no follow-through here.
Once ATI and Nvidia utilized TSM foundries to bring out their new products like the 4890 and 4770 GPUs, there was nothing behind that. Stock price reactions of Cisco and Nvidia are showing semis/tech are dead from here on out. Sell in May and go away!
Sure it’s a bear market ultimately. So what? Nothing wrong with taking profits while the trend is up. Then take profits when the trend is down. Or am I missing something? I don’t think anybody here follows Graham anymore, do they? That’s the way to get in trouble!
Some very nice analysis though!! Thanks for taking the time E8.
i am the biggest douchebag on the planet.
Went to a small Tarp Bank yesterday to cash a check about 10:30 am and I was the only person there…crickets.
Then I had to go to BAC about a 1 mile down the road, my son managed to get a bunch of $35 fees levied on his account. This fucking place was going bonkers. 5 drive thru lines 5 deep outside and a line of 12 with 3 tellers inside. The branch manager was just directing traffic. The Mgr. basically tells me to have a seat and he’ll see if he can get to me.
So it dawns on me that if its true that BAC does business with 1 out of every 2 Americans that essentially this monster bank really is AMERICA. I’m thinking that every poor bastard in this line if fighting with BAC over some $35 late fee or canceled credit card, or unjust APR % rate. How can these guys not make $$$$— Matter of fact these fucking Tarp banks may be the best investment going forward in history. Trillions in lost bets being transferred to the taxpayer…..borrow at 0 lend @ 5 to 8 and just keep banging the working man with fees out the ass.
It’s funny- If your business is good right now you believe things are getting better ..if not, your bearish.
I have hope and faith that things are definitely getting better, my business is good, and I am a REALTOR..
Carson, I’m thrilled that the real estate market collapsed and it caused 1,000’s of scum bag realtors to lose their job. I can only hope that yours is next.
Thanks for participating in the biggest fraud on the american people since they said Elvis killed himself.
cum bucket.
Fist, you bears are fucked
Volume is picking up, we’re going back to 1560 on the S&P 500
Beeyatch!
I see see green mustard sprouts growing out of Kudlow’s ears!!!
yai, yai, yai, yai,yai!!!!
No Donald. I am the biggest douchebag on the planet.
Fist,
By the way, you should know, Senor Tropicana always wins!
Despite some fakeouts that will be quickly bought, this market will not give any meaningful pullback until after OPEX. Right around same the time most of your short-positioned testes have been squeezed into diamonds. I expect a blow-off top past the 200 DMA before the real bears crash the party. May all posers step aside, or be bulldozed by a herd of bullish retards sporting Deely Boppers.
Knowing few will heed my advice, I’ll callously sit back in the cut and wait until your lifeless bodies fall to the wayside before rifling through your pockets.
Schismatic
You boys and your charts can just go along in fairyland and have some fun. Armageddon is still on the radar. GM is headed for the trash heap of history and will take a large part of the US economy with it. The ripple effect will be huge. Bottom line is the consumer drives this economy and when the amount of people with no income or job prospects reaches the tipping point the whole thing is going in the crapper. Don’t need any charts to figure that out. On another note; the state of Michigan is totally and irrevocably screwed. Statewide population will drop 20% within the next 2-4 years. It’ll be a good place to buy vacant land and uninhabited buildings cheap.
Senor Tropicana always wins until he’s trades against my QQQQ short. Actually Senor Tropicana is mostly in cash already, so a big correction is no big deal to him. Check this quote out in WSJ just now. People say stuff like this at tops:
“Uri Landesman, head of international equities at ING Investment Management, bought stocks in Russia and Brazil last week. Currently, his funds have about 30% of their assets invested in emerging markets — his largest proportion ever. “I’m really stepping on the gas pedal,” he said.”
and the market action for the upcoming week will be… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5FmdJDROTsY
Anyone want to make a bet that if GM declares bankruptcy the stock will moonshot higher on the news? Why not right? Banks shot up on the massive need for more capital and incomprehensible dilutions.
By the way I have some major changes going on this week in my head, more on this later… Just know they involve a cleaning and streamlining of sorts.
Just as the short the banks trade got crowded and resulted in people getting nervous and covering to spur this rally, the long the banks trade is getting crowded now. The problems with the banks are not solved. They are merely being masked by the shell game accounting that is taking place. When the truth starts to leak out you will start to see people head for the doors again.
The herd has formed, and more people are getting sucked in. This is exactly what the smart money wants to happen. This rally is built on emotion and hope. Just when people start to feel comfortable with taking more risk the hammer will drop and the fools will have their balls cut off.
I am impressed at the current rally’s strength, and I am surprised that the big money has let it go on for this long, but I still believe the hammer is coming soon. It always works that way. The media and people start screaming bull market then wham!! The manipulators come in to take scalps. Just as they did when everyone was bearish and short. Don’t y’all see. The entire game is fixed and manipulated, since people are sheep and go with the crowd. It pays to be contrary, the trick is knowing when to pull the trigger once the herd has formed. That’s the hard part.
Man… you must of been burn. Every profession has good and bad in it. I am very fortunate to be associated with a great company, that is very ethical, and professional, and respected in our community. In the end, the good always wins.
Everyone relax.
“The Fly” is here to make all coin.
Developing…
I am tired of hearing that unemployment is a lagging indicator. Tell that to the people who have been out of work for a while and their unemployment benefits are expired. The rate will hit double digits, no doubt, I don’t care what Bernanke says. No job, no mortgage payments, no cc payments, no car payments, no student loan payments, etc. The banks are still in danger zones IMO. Tent cities will start to build up around the nation, much like they are building up around Sacramento.
Unemployment is a lagging indicator.
And your point is ???. I am just tired of hearing it. It will lag all right, right behind the fucking grizzly that pisses all over the fools that are full of hope that the “anointed one” will save the world from a fucking melt down
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/11/business/11credit.html?_r=1&ref=business
Fly, I just sent you an email re a PPT subscription hiccup. Thanks.
Stop with the Mayday/doomsday BULLSHIT already.
June<—–thats the ticket
Think
All the feeder Plants that supplied Chrysler that have been idled.
GM goes Kaput and many more Parts suppliers/transportation companies go tits up as well, add to that the growing Commercial Real Estate clusterfuck
May will make you sea sick
June will cause projectile vomiting
You’ve been warned
Anon
If you sub’d and cannot login: just know, paypal is known to delay. Give it a few.
Tmoe
Factory utilization is a LEADING indicator.
Fly,
The PPT thing was a bit more complicated than a delay. Details in your flybroker mailbox. Sorry for the issue.
I’ve been under the impression that once a company filed bankruptcy that the stock was disloved and reissued after the company comes out of it? and all who own the stock before loose it all, zero?
with this I am refering to GM?
but knowing how fucked up the lies and fuckery have been this past 2 years, GM will most likely NOT file bankruptcy “miraculously” avoiding it at the last minute and the stock will shoot up 500% in one day.
They will do what they have been doing all along, telling the media they “just don’t see any way out of bankruptcy” and then …WHAMM, they’ll announce at the tenth hour, “we got it all figured out and we will not have to file bankruptcy”
______________
on the banking news, the media has not mentioned the so called “toxic assets” in 4 weeks, poof, gone, not a word……I find it amazing, that while the market was tanking, that is all they talked about, now that we have this monster rally, not a word of the good bank, bad bank bullshit “toxic assets” does anyone here find that funny or just me?
So we are to believe that these trillions of dollars of bad loans and bank foreclosures (you know, the little thing that caused the DOW to drop from 14000 to 6500?) have just gone away?
Poof…. if so it is a great magic act.
carry on.
ANON
You were emailed. Let me know.
Risk is on a come back
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ahV_qyr.a0tU&refer=home
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aPHeQieygSys&refer=home
People, this has happened before. Quit hating on penny stocks.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GLW&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
Fly –
Do you believe that the world economy is on the mend and recovering?
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/ipg1.gif
here’s another beauty
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/ipg2.gif
Instinctively, I do not think that world growth is coming back. However, my eyes do not deceive me. There are signs of recovery. As long as people believe that, the market will go higher. I am not an economist. I just play the hand that is dealt.
The Fly’s been peeking in on my blog fabrication industrial complex I see…
What a Short Strange Trip It’s Been: SPX Again
See if you agree with my targets three.
________
The market is forward looking and the future is OK. Unless you think the world is going to go anti-materialistic or a country is going to launch a nuke, I would go with the Fly.
Fair enough. I try to do the same thing. Being a bear right now is like doubling down on an eleven and getting a fucking 2 of hearts. I have been getting my teeth kicked in on my shorts and ietfs, but I am sitting on 45% cash and also I am long a few names that have been doing ok.
This thing will turn Mid or late May, like the March, April rally did last year.
I just play the hand that is dealt.
Is that the platinum one?
______
http://peterschiffblog.blogspot.com/
“Once again, the facts do not support the euphoria. Over the past few months, the government has literally blasted the economy with trillions of new dollars conjured from the ether. The fact that this “stimulus” has blown some air back into our deflating consumer-based bubble economy, and given a boost to an oversold stock market, is hardly evidence that the problems have been solved. It is simply an illusion, and not a very good one at that. By throwing money at the problem, all the government is creating is inflation. Although this can often look like growth, it is no more capable of creating wealth than a hall of mirrors is capable of creating people”
So let the Munchkins dance for now. But remember, the Witch is not dead; only temporarily stunned by an avalanche of fake money.
The ‘hand dealt’ is a parabolic move.
Basically, if you believe that a move can travel at an angle of 75-90 degrees for a long period of time, then you are stay long and don’t take profits. Generally, they collapse. I’ve been trimming longs to 75% cash as of Fri. 6 doubles since 3/9. Enough is enough.
The NDX is ready for a break of trend like the one in 2007. Guess we see if they lead the way down as they lead the way up. Banks and FF Energy are propping the markets up right now. All I need is to see one or both of them reverse, and I’m in short with that 75%. Keep an eye on bonds, euro, oil and banks.
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/05/realpoint-downgrades-hundreds-of-cmbs.html
T MOE,
You are not getting it. We all know bad things are happening and we are being lied to.
WHO CARES. The market is going UP and, if you want your account to follow, you need to play along.
Nobody got fucking rich during the gold rush by bitching that the water was cold and the donkey was hungry…
Tmoe needs to go with the mo-mo, no? Moron. Recessions are usually good years for the markets. Buy the dips or are we near the end of this bounce? That is the question.